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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    At least we are now getting better synoptics for cold writhin the 10 day range. For so long it always seemed to be post 10 days. ECM will be interesting later.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Para looks very snowy to me?

    Temps ready to mix out tho tbh

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Parallel is crazy +8c to -8c in 12hours in an Easterly-

    Looks broken!

    Anyway eyes down for the most important run of the day !

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    6 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

    I thought that's all the models have ever shown regarding this so called 'cold' spell off the Atlantic.

    They showed this as an option re the transition to euro trough but once the wedges come into play it becomes a different ballgame ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    36 minutes ago, snowice said:

    Is that not FV3 6z?

    Oh good grief - I'm getting sloppy. Yes - that image is 6z. 12z below. No slider - FV3 also goes for the full blown atlantic low though it disrupts directly over the UK and creates a real forecaster's mess. Not so good as a sharp slider - uppers wont be as low. Half way house between ECM 0z and GFS

    gfs-0-216.thumb.png.2cb8c3a0ea4dbbb3067758c5be24990c.png

    Anyway - interested mostly in the ECM tonight, and hoping/expecting it to have a better handle on what is approaching. Complex micro picture though - wouldn't want to be working at the MetO once this colder air arrives because I suspect we will face changes in the 24-48 hour bracket by next week in terms of rain, snow and exactly where.....

    Edited by Catacol
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    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

    The ‘messiness’ of cold zonality until next Friday or so is part and parcel of the evolution needed, I think. It primes this side of the Atlantic with colder uppers, flattens the Azores High and only then is a Greenie ridge going to be needed. After that, my location has a mean 2m temperature that barely gets above freezing for days and that’s as a result of the lead in and very much in line with the longer range models.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Just before the ECM , all hail the Mighty Navgem ?

    4CD07130-8D62-4F2B-8CB9-720C58A176B7.png

    CB302F63-CDD7-47D1-9480-6B8F7D7E00A2.png

    CD985CCE-0AF0-45F6-817C-694EE1DD5A3D.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

    Just to warn ECM 'could' well be a downgrade and we shouldn't be surprised 

    This mornings was stunning 

    To match it would be a dream to beat it would be a miracle 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
    2 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Ecm at 72 hours already looks better than gfs!!more amplified aswell!!

    Not much different to the ukmo which is great news!!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    GEM was identical to ECM to 174 this eve!

    Lets have a rerun please!

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    27 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    @BLAST FROM THE PAST UK blizzards again mate - a growing trend? ? 

    anim_mrp2.thumb.gif.30d7cb52810034ead2facb47588ee1a1.gifanim_nbw0.thumb.gif.03521f439661cbb19de16a96a4b106ea.gif   

    not to worry folks @feb1991blizzard is in control of the GEFS again making sure that the stonking charts continue ?

    anim_gut6.thumb.gif.dd2741c228fc53ded8b889e6487eb223.gifanim_kue4.thumb.gif.063363a3861b992ad533116f2094abba.gifanim_zkb4.thumb.gif.cafdd8367af7bbdedc2aa88a6a2febf5.gifanim_yec7.thumb.gif.d583f72602f0f7f6cfe7de0511675ccc.gifanim_nvs6.thumb.gif.25124ce2c3aa30898c4ef855f6307e14.gifgensnh-12-1-384.thumb.png.3614c47b4e4c714705d9960a2d924d33.png    

    anim_dbd3.thumb.gif.0f0dac64744c8e808acf9d85c92890c9.gifanim_zay7.thumb.gif.5e8a538f617924f59935b960528fa348.gifanim_peu3.thumb.gif.2d8a9662e152b732db3cde1754509280.gif   

    @BLAST FROM THE PAST the "slug" going on its holidays to Greenland at the end of the month? ?✈️ 

    Beautiful KCW.......Beautiful 

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Certainly not going the way of the GFS

    73E943C7-67DF-45AA-8D2B-2116A1E74249.thumb.png.b6b3bd06346b082a72a0bc9ac038e7f6.png

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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