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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
    2 hours ago, tight isobar said:

    Good stuff @Catacol..

    The mac/micro both- now worth noting..

    We-are at that stage...and alls looking very well indeed.

    Winters coming...

    The baby is up-n running!

    My, my....they grow up so fast these days....seems just like yesterday that baby was feeding at the breast, and now up'n running.....just show how much can change in 24 hours...lol........looking at the GFS in interest, nice snow making trough sliding though T171-192 with the more traditional FI dart board low at T300+

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    6 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

    Nice to see the doom mongers out in force again tonight!!! 

    ‘Oh yeah a dodgy run!!!’  let’s run with it to annoy the cold lovers.

    Come on guys let’s just face facts a cold spell is on the way and just around the corner. Each run will be different that’s just the way we like it. If they counted down from T300+ all the same there would be no need for any forums!!!

    Ukmo looks good as does GEM early doors, GFS will catch up probably by Tuesday. ECM IMHO will not look to dissimilar to this morning, if it does there is always tomorrow or the next day!!!!

    USA and Europe including the UK are on the cusp of something very special!! 

    Breath and relax Woosaaa

    MNR

    Mrs Bucket (pronounced bouquet) tells me Richard dear will see to the models and make sure they all line up perfectly before the guests arrive

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    Upgraded GFS just about gets there on Tuesday, though the low looks a tad typically overblown GFS creation (though with Knocker commenting on the thermal gradient evident....who knows??) Knowing the GFS tendency for pushing things too far east we could expect this solution (if it proves to be correct) to be pushed back west at least a bit....

     

    gfs-0-228.thumb.png.718f7ebf64697d0bd6a938c7c1fe5fd6.png

    So - ECM/FV3 v GEM/GFS on the evolution in 10 days. ECM tonight - which way? ?

    Edited by Catacol
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Gfs parra looks pretty close to the 12z at 114 hours 

    Edited by swfc
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    6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    A lot of GEFS members with mini easterly at T150 and small low just to the SE - potential definitely there for a marginal snow event this Saturday? 

    But the GEFS indicate warm temps for Sat 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Just glancing at the ensembles at 192, there’s a real plethora of options but the OP is well represented amongst them it must be said, but to be honest they are a real mess. GFS looks like it’s lost the plot and reverted to its over progressive type, we hope anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    16 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

    I'm not seeing much to get excited about if you live in the south, cold zonality doesn't deliver here. If I was back up north 200m asl I'd be more enamored with the runs but at present it's pretty underwhelming 

    Are we looking at cold zonality ????

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Upgraded GFS just about gets there on Tuesday, though the low looks a tad typically overblown GFS creation (though with Knocker commenting on the thermal gradient evident....who knows??)

     

    gfs-0-228.thumb.png.718f7ebf64697d0bd6a938c7c1fe5fd6.png

    So - ECM/FV3 v GEM/GFS on the evolution in 10 days. ECM tonight - which way? ?

    Is that not FV3 6z?

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Day 6 verification pretty much the same as always,ECM>UKMO>GFS(new).

     

    cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.acb559fadb9c3d3310d8a2154a4782c0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

    FV3 - 8uppers for everyone her comes the snow at 192.?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

    Day 6 verification pretty much the same as always,ECM>UKMO>GFS(new).

     

    cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.acb559fadb9c3d3310d8a2154a4782c0.png

    Good to see the UKMO enjoying a very good spell in recent days .

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Missed the 12Z, due to Internet playing-up...Didn't expect to see a deep low all the way up there, though!

    image.thumb.png.e3b494e473c6fec6a6bbef58d93e1771.png

    Let's see what the FV3 comes-up with?

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    Posted
  • Location: London Waterloo 0m/ Leeds Bradford Airport 200m
  • Location: London Waterloo 0m/ Leeds Bradford Airport 200m
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Are we looking at cold zonality ????

    Maybe not textbook but I'm seeing low pressure after low pressure on the 12z GFS brining PM air interspread with milder interludes. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Here comes the Greeny ridge again on the GEFS.

    image.thumb.png.4734c25f724ba5acb37d2a92631fad10.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well with -8s in place on FV3 T204:

    image.thumb.jpg.3c66f25a2e8a1309e276171269a850ae.jpg

    and you get this pattern, more snow than you can shake a stick at and then some, I'd suggest:

    image.thumb.jpg.24d2eb072f329a6fd9a08e243c87ea63.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

    Got to forget most model output past +96 at the minute in my opinion and concentrate more on averages and nature. Heard many strange reports regarding birds and seen squirrels just storing now ? It might not get there completely but think we will see a significant freezer spell on these trends we know now it is going to be cold but how long and how cold. Looks good for an epic imo, anyone? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Excellent GFS para @ 192, incoming heavy snow showers ?

    GFS p is heavy snow at t192 onwards.....superb run.  Another theme.

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    At T300 the GEFS give us a multiplex of outcomes:

    gens_panel_iuc0.png

    FI starts at D5 with the resolution of slidergate#1

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    The silence speaks volumes for the gfs/p 12z run...some cold Pm air to the north west but that's about it.-

    -8 uppers heavy snow showers at 202 nothing wrong there. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    13 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

    Maybe not textbook but I'm seeing low pressure after low pressure on the 12z GFS brining PM air interspread with milder interludes. 

    Well it’s either sliders or the trough has to get south of the uk (or potentially sit slack over the uk although the thicknesses look a tad high compared to a few days ago on this feature 22/23 rd) 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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