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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Are you sure mate?

    image.thumb.png.9ea099e77404f203c748c2f128e85bcb.png

    Yup that slider slid and disconnected from the pv to the northwest!!way better!!gfs could folllow in 45 mins mate!

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    So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

    I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

    It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    maybe the very fact that today's 0z suite was for the first time in a while not a downgrade is a signal in and of itself that we are headed for the freezer.

     

     

     

    If we're not heading into the freezer it's certainly a very cold fridge!..:oldgrin:..overall great output today in the hunt for cold..and snow!?:cold-emoji:❄️?

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    Sliding low T120:

    image.thumb.jpg.dfb5a8fffe25ba0990a51dee78c24f22.jpg

     

    Looks  game on now lovely slider. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Nicely done UKMO B01E6C3C-CFF7-4084-93FA-36268E2667B3.thumb.gif.cfe50086d4ba4f5b5c36081cd906e7af.gif

    unsure what the uppers will be, but looks cold

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    another thing to watch out for during colder spells - sudden short term potential - could be some interest for my fellow Scottish members and some other Northern areas (possibly spreading further south across UK) late weds / Thursday 

    tempresult_yll3.thumb.gif.53ba4d140086ed09616cb0696fde5a9f.giftempresult_cfa6.thumb.gif.1b9f8c7e405fe5d0a2de7afcf51168fa.gif 

    looks like a front associated with the first slider low potential about to try and come in at 102h with some colder air still about

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    GFS nothing like the UKMO ?

    AC722E51-F900-40F3-B3C2-46F90715CA37.thumb.png.118fb4f2b6aa7bcb18f0c4b09c5503bb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Nicely done UKMO B01E6C3C-CFF7-4084-93FA-36268E2667B3.thumb.gif.cfe50086d4ba4f5b5c36081cd906e7af.gif

    unsure what the uppers will be, but looks cold

    Similarities with ECM but if I had to be picky would rather see heights developing someway further north as the slider goes south south east...

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    GFS nothing like the UKMO ?

    AC722E51-F900-40F3-B3C2-46F90715CA37.thumb.png.118fb4f2b6aa7bcb18f0c4b09c5503bb.png

    Gfs no slider and completely rubbish at 120 hours with a low centre of the uk!!am pretty sure that ukmo 120 hour chart has that low further east aswell compared to the 144 hour one yesterday!!could be mistakened though!!gfs could trump the other 2 this time round or a middle ground very least!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Interesting from the Gem . But is this cold enough ?

    909A0391-E486-472D-920F-0AFE13A330DD.png

    D1172E43-FF7A-4AEC-8FBA-72076B49947B.png

    002482E8-3943-46F6-8E91-1F47A49C1461.png

    F950741D-2337-4148-BA57-7B59875EE44A.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    GFS 12z actually has slightly less of a ridge at the key point than the 06z... laughable (we sincerely hope!).

    Even GEM's managing to look more sensible now (00z left 12z right);

    gem-0-126.png?00 gem-0-120.png?12 

    A big shift there, of the sort we were looking for GFS to make.

    Interesting to see UKMO upping the blocking-out even further. Developments in the lower stratosphere are increasingly supportive of this (and more quickly so than I was expecting yesterday evening!) but GFS seems to have missed the memo! ??

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Ah well okay, maybe that's a bit harsh of me - GFS has the memo but reckons on a slightly slower propagation down of the anomalies;

    gfs-0-132.png?6 gfs-0-126.png?12

    Again 06z left and 12z right - more rise of heights N of the UK, just about within the downwell region.

     

    gem-0-144.png?00 gem-0-138.png?12

    GEM's also upped the heights a little but it's the increased trough disruption that's most notable there.

    The trend is our friend. Hopefully the ECM 12z concurs!

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    GEM looking good at T144, nice cold developing too...

    image.thumb.jpg.b6f31f516010109c51ca16cd1ed218f4.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.88b509dca632973b72050828273d24f6.jpg

    Those uppers will be better as well. GEM has a known bias with under doing the uppers 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Gfs at 144hrs looks fine to me, why the flapping over it????also thought gem was a rank model

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    7 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Interesting from the Gem . But is this cold enough ?

    909A0391-E486-472D-920F-0AFE13A330DD.png

    D1172E43-FF7A-4AEC-8FBA-72076B49947B.png

    002482E8-3943-46F6-8E91-1F47A49C1461.png

    F950741D-2337-4148-BA57-7B59875EE44A.png

    Yes the so called slider LP is further south at 138h... giving snowfall across the Midlands ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    GEM the best run 10/10-

    UKMO 9/10

    GFS poor 5/10

    Think they are all leading to cold at 144t but a different route from all these 3 models.  UKMO slightly warmer 850mb temps than the earlier run at 144t but the surface flow will be cold.  Now all eyes down to see where ECM ends up in the cold range. Looking at the fax charts could be cold enough for some snow showers late Wednesday.early Thursday transferring west to east. 528 dam well into Ireland.

     C

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

     alsoYep - good run from UKMO strengthening the slide scenario.

    UW144-21.thumb.gif.3bacd5f91c3e9e3795e701e706adf7a4.gif

     

    However I hope members aren't going to get too hung up on snow chances Thursday into Friday. I don't see it - cold rain to start for low lying areas. But by the weekend night time temperatures will fall, cold air will begin to creep in from the east and the second slider (if ECM maintains its consistency) in the early part of next week is the one that may deliver.

    ECM tonight will be interesting...GFS at the moment still seems keen on pushing a wedge of heights up towards Scandy (at least as of 156h)

    Gem looks interesting also....mother of all sliders on the way as the ridge pulls back west?

    Edited by Catacol
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    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    Ukmo following the gfs trend of the 06z run of building heights to our Northwest. A Greenland high looks the way forward to me and if do fair play to gfs for the first model to spot a trend here!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    GFS 12Z a perfect example of what we want to see less of during any slider low chances - note the movement / position of the low - too close to the UK and ends up as rain for manytempresult_dhi4.thumb.gif.99abda95910062df1ef878c203c05900.gif  tempresult_muv2.thumb.gif.d50444823e1fc20974da8a5ad3bfea96.gif tempresult_wih5.thumb.gif.943041fce7bd22c8f47eeb5238fbe18f.gif , will hopefully get a good example of what we want to see in the GEFS later - low(s) positioned more to the W / SW helping to pull in the colder air / uppers from the NE / E 

     

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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