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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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Minor changes so far, not worth getting hung up over detail really. Some good some bad. The Pacific ridge is significantly stronger which will strengthen the emerging arctic high. Equally, the low spinning out of the eastern US could prove problematic for early-onset advection towards Greenland. May be a case of delayed reward...

87EB2B38-1B96-4344-861A-D605DD851918.png

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The fact you are posting it means you have been converted ?

UKMO pacific blocking starting to develop @144 if you have seen it

Full update from me around 715 tonight 

Neither gfs or gfsp picked up this n American ridging into the arctic high pre day 8 which was a feature of the ecm 00z op

ukmo and icon both have it accelerated on their 12z runs and gfs 12z  looks like it might be sniffing it 

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19 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

I know the GFS(p) 6z was a stonker but correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that the new GFS? If that's so then should we give that more credence than the GFS? It's not a leading question but a genuine one as the parallel seems to get lumped with the lower end models? Or am I wrong and the GFS(p) is still being tweaked?

It was due to go live on 24th Jan but whether ( no pun intended) the government shutdown affects that I'm not sure.

What you are saying tho does make sense to me 

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Very encouraging ICON run . If we see that trend from the rest of the model runs we can start to feel that the change is gathering some momentum.

Hi, can i ask how many runs of a certain persuasion it takes in order to truly call it a trend? 

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23 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

I know the GFS(p) 6z was a stonker but correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that the new GFS? If that's so then should we give that more credence than the GFS? It's not a leading question but a genuine one as the parallel seems to get lumped with the lower end models? Or am I wrong and the GFS(p) is still being tweaked?

I stopped taking the old gfs too seriously months ago - only bother with it cos it comes out before the para .... if it’s in the same place as the para day 8/9 then I take a little more note 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I stopped taking the old gfs too seriously months ago - only bother with it cos it comes out before the para .... if it’s in the same place as the para day 8/9 then I take a little more note 

I wonder which is better in the strat, as that could have big ramifications for the FI trop output now.

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2 minutes ago, wafjin said:

Hi, can i ask how many runs of a certain persuasion it takes in order to truly call it a trend? 

We need it to count down to within day 7 across all the main  outputs that go that far.

The UKMO at day 6 though is close to the ICON . The GFS is flatter  . Going by US forecasters comments the UKMO/ICON trend  is more likely to be correct .

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Everywhere on cold side of jet stream visibly better than 06z frequent showers for NW wintry over higher ground makes for much more interesting weather.

23495D22-8DDE-4A48-957F-699EE6A1F3E7.thumb.png.7fe409b67481a653e3715ff4b17463f2.png485F5FA7-D01E-4C75-A1FB-E2B0416C4FB9.thumb.png.0f019f950939d6b206ac744987565acf.png

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Ha GFS is a comedian at times. The variation in output for Canada alone demonstrates the lack of grasp any of the models have over what is going on. Compare t198 with this mornings t204. Gonna be a few days yet before the mid term becomes clear in my view 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, weirpig said:

UKMO 144 hr  similar to the icon with the 1045 Arctic high

 

UN144-21.gif

Yes not bad. Nice to see GFS and UKMO building a stronger Arctic high. Ultimately the hope is that we can eventually link up with an Atlantic ridge and lock a cold pattern in.

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

This looks pretty cold, and FI is gonna be great I reckon

6EF60596-3158-45DB-BF6E-9D2B9CC9707D.png

Aye I would agree here. Painful getting to this point but the right pieces are in the right places at last. A clearly split TPV certainly helps

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h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

Ah yes - one of those small but significant wedges of high pressure doing just enough to disrupt the Atlantic trough and prevent it just marching on in.

It's a sensible notion, given what's at play; the main reversal anomalies may land sometime 19th-22nd, but localised anomalies could make it down a bit sooner.

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Single figure temps for most though it's not a desperately cold chart

gfs-1-234.thumb.png.2ecb63cbc19c7239266d8f09ed3edfd6.png

This is, although not sure forecasting that would be easy - plenty of snow around though 

6C32FA70-7EDF-456D-88F3-7D396E0919B9.png

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