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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, Evening Star said:

    Not liking the look of that mid-latitude high pressure system in the Atlantic.  Looks like it might just follow the zonal flow and be a toppler

    I didn't think about that; my mind is firmly on the white stuff!?

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    So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

    I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

    It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    38 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

    Good analysis Nick! A lot of people are concerned about the size of the cold pool firing up the jet and flettening the Atlantic pattern. However, it seems to me the higher amplification actually creates the conditions for blocking to start establishing closer to us. If that trough was not digging so far south over the US then a flatter jet from the US would make it more difficult for us, I think!

    Still looking good this morning....

    Thanks . Yes even me who can be very hard to please is very optimistic! And good to see the GFS  06 hrs run improving in the shorter term . 

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
    7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    I'm liking the look of that (sub -20C) cold pool developing over Scandi; though, as others have already pointed-out, it's not likely to verify quite like that:

    image.thumb.png.ee6902319676578dfc82d6311940dfe6.pngimage.thumb.png.ac8584beef8a031abf2ea26cf2d79261.png 

    It does look promising, though! Would a link-up north of Scotland be too much to ask for?:cold:

    Given the overall background state I would say at some point there a reasonable probility of it happening. May not happen immediately, but I think once we are into the pattern change, pretty close to the 21st as telegraphed for quite some time, then further possibilities open up.

    The 500mb anomalies continue to show the NW/SE pattern, with another average heights in mid Atlantic and lower anomalies to our east. Given the background signals of the weakening vortex we could start to see anomalies increasingly push further north. 

    With a cold pool in place over Scandinavia, a snow covered Europe and the AO forecast to go sharply negative, there is a decent probability of tapping into very cold uppers from N/NE at some point after next week IMHO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    The GFS mean V Mean 138 06z V 144 0z for any newbies shows the quite large changes in this suite towards the scenario where the initial cold from 120 isnt mixed out-

    42784044-71CB-4A8E-AB21-3B04ED0F4777.thumb.jpeg.923a6c986a9e509365b6f6297865f210.jpegEE6545F5-69A2-42CF-BF8E-DFD063F207E3.thumb.jpeg.4ff799f234bfe609ad0b430c4181513b.jpeg

    This will be the best mean yet by next weekend, -6 at least for many 

    7D3FA307-42C1-4C13-A0D1-5714891CEE91.png

    Many chance of snow though????

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Yes theres a drop of about 3C across the piste around 162

    **** Whoever poated the 18z & 00z ensemble comparison - please add the 06z ones as well *****

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    GFSP is looking potent at 204, big northerly storm showing up again..... should be stonking going forward!?

    image.thumb.png.7b825f24273115e974595b0f3529afec.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
    4 minutes ago, Starsail said:

    Have deleted most of the text from Catacols post to save space but this in one fantastic post. Easy to understand, very educational and well written. What makes it perfect is that this could actually happen in the next few weeks. Thanks Catacol.

    This is not to forget about some of the fantastic contributions from others in recent days. Steve Murr, Nick Sussex, Bluearmy, John Holmes etc (and my personal favourite Tight Isobar). I have been a reader of this forum since 2009 and when an upcoming cold spell looks likely to verify there is no better place to be. I remember being on the Weather Outlook before the cold spell of 2010 and a poster called Retron posted an emsemble watch each day that counted down to the cold spell. Steve Murr contributed then too. These contributions live in the memory as much as the cold spells themselves

    Well said, totally agree. 

    Edited by Bazray
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Rain for most initially, but still a nice chart could be a good FI, lack of colder uppers in Europe is an issue on this run.

    8ED45B7E-1A06-4BFC-B3F6-BC2410712CD0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Is anyone going to comment on the GEFS suite?

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    There are so many options on the table for late January and most of them are cold/very cold. The GFSP at 300 is attempting a Scandi high with a pool of very cold air moving our way.  Best model watching since Feb/March last year.

    image.thumb.png.64462d490170d259bc2399b2c17e0f7f.png image.thumb.png.c5a9b0c9a52c787fe4eaf23d7bef1d39.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Easterly popping up again on gfs parra  in fi.looks to be coming a stronger them going forward

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    Is anyone going to comment on the GEFS suite?

    Why feb ? Are they stonking ?? 

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    Posted
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Wind, Rain, Sun.....but mainly cooler weather!
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL

    @Catacol Thank you for such an explanatory post.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    10 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Rain for most initially, but still a nice chart could be a good FI, lack of colder uppers in Europe is an issue on this run.

    8ED45B7E-1A06-4BFC-B3F6-BC2410712CD0.png

    Or snow for many???

    gfs-2-222.thumb.png.97219d23b1762e66caa9c19e45e8db39.pnggfs-2-228.thumb.png.98482e8645f25cf5dd12a6e50ef549fc.png

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=15&amp;ech=192&amp;carte=1

    i know its cherry  picking but their some their juicy charts that could come our way in fantasy world

    gensnh-15-1-240.png

    gensnh-15-1-384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Temps lowest so far on any GEFS run.

    image.thumb.png.359f140dea255a3fedac49ff68a15a15.png

     

    Yes, also shows the 6z GFS was a mild outlier at the end of the run. Excellent set.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes, must be a cluster showing a Greeny.

    image.thumb.png.cbf6cd1006700f10620253792665eea1.png

    Temps lowest so far on any GEFS run.

    image.thumb.png.359f140dea255a3fedac49ff68a15a15.png

    Amazing !!

    Its looking really really good of all a sudden..

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    Amazing !!

    Its looking really really good of all a sudden..

    Just waiting for the ECM London graph to update.

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    Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge
    9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes, must be a cluster showing a Greeny.

    image.thumb.png.cbf6cd1006700f10620253792665eea1.png

    Temps lowest so far on any GEFS run.

    image.thumb.png.359f140dea255a3fedac49ff68a15a15.png

    GFS a warm outlier > day 10, otherwise a cracking set of ensembles.

     

    *edit* Ice Day beat me to it.

    Edited by Skyraker
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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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