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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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The 06z gfs is a carbon copy of the ec46 with our Atlantic high moving into Greenland. Preferred option for me over the ecm as it would lock in the cold properly!!

Slider lows no thanks. Let's have a Greenland high please

Doesn't quite make it but a good trend

Edited by January Snowstorm
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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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2 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Good morning all GFS from 00z to 06z seems more westerly based .

I can understand the fustration with the models.

Is it going to be mild westerly or cooler northerly. 

Well it won’t be a mild westerly . That’s not showing on any charts . There all showing cold just in different ways . ?‍♂️

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2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Early risers would have had a nice surprise this morning !

Although still disagreements between the Euros and the GFS things are moving in the right direction .

The ECM drops it’s flat upstream pattern days 9 and 10 from last night . 

The Euros are broadly similar with all the key features at day 6.

Given the expected upstream pattern suggested by NCEP with northern stream amplification and more dig southwards of colder air into the central and eastern USA, and an amplified Pacific trough working east this normally corresponds downstream to the displaced Azores high and jet track nw se into the UK.

The UK would be incredibly unlucky to avoid some cold and snow so fingers crossed we can lose some of the model drama of recent days and have some less fraught model watching !

Good analysis Nick! A lot of people are concerned about the size of the cold pool firing up the jet and flettening the Atlantic pattern. However, it seems to me the higher amplification actually creates the conditions for blocking to start establishing closer to us. If that trough was not digging so far south over the US then a flatter jet from the US would make it more difficult for us, I think!

Still looking good this morning....

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2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The 06z gfs is a carbon copy of the ec46 with our Atlantic high moving into Greenland. Preferred option for me over the ecm as it would lock in the cold properly!!

Slider lows no thanks. Let's have a Greenland high please

Its a belter JS..Eire looking in a prime spot for the sliders too.. ?

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38 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

FYI:

EPS is cold throughout the entire run

495156BB-DE13-4CB4-9A1A-A30BB4CFFA70.thumb.png.7957f7f9f8d81e1ee2540c27a073dfea.pngB3C38452-F6F7-4706-8D3D-FEC0A066F19E.thumb.png.d4b8c191526d92b75fa2e4e4d6aa8fe4.png

The negative anomaly is amplified by the fact the mean is compared against 1999-2018. A somewhat distorted view because of that but the period is certainly going to be chilly. 

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well it won’t be a mild westerly . That’s not showing on any charts . There all showing cold just in different ways . ?‍♂️

Thanks ice cold...

It was this that caught my attention 

19012006_1306.gif

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1 minute ago, sorepaw1 said:

Thanks ice cold...

It was this that caught my attention 

19012006_1306.gif

Yes mate slightly colder air moves in at T168 but if you look at the 850s there still no real milder air ?

2BE3696B-20D9-4576-B3F6-70124E528085.png

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36 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Now I don’t normally watch the bbc weather but I just found myself watching it, surely looking at the models etc it’s cold the weekend so why the hell does the lovely tv show 7c Saturday in London? I no it more than likely will change but if it’s getting much colder then surely they should be showing more like 4-5c unless of course the models are overdoing the ? 

there was a day a couple of years ago, where the bbc forecast was showing that it was 4'c in my location, whereas it was in fact minus 3'c!!!!

always know a few degrees off their forecasts, they always under do the temperatures, with the caveat "it'll be a few degrees colder in the countryside".

annoys me because i work in horticulture and run a nursery, where we need to know the exact temperature forecast

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Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Nice mild Easterly at the end of the GFS there hahaha 

4A012C27-7CA8-42CD-9348-BA550D508092.thumb.jpeg.7b8eba8e93fb001235bea847cc141dca.jpeg

Haha. 

Air sourced from the Med on that chart. 

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I'm liking the look of that (sub -20C) cold pool developing over Scandi; though, as others have already pointed-out, it's not likely to verify quite like that:

image.thumb.png.ee6902319676578dfc82d6311940dfe6.pngimage.thumb.png.ac8584beef8a031abf2ea26cf2d79261.png 

It does look promising, though! Would a link-up north of Scotland be too much to ask for?:cold:

Edited by Ed Stone
missing word...again!
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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm liking the look of that (sub -20C) cold pool developing over Scandi; though, as others have already pointed-out, it's likely to verify quite like that:

image.thumb.png.ee6902319676578dfc82d6311940dfe6.pngimage.thumb.png.ac8584beef8a031abf2ea26cf2d79261.png 

It does look promising, though! Would a link-up north of Scotland be too much to ask for?:cold:

Not liking the look of that mid-latitude high pressure system in the Atlantic.  Looks like it might just follow the zonal flow and be a toppler

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19 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

It's gone its own way, but again all roads are leading to cold

image.thumb.png.b654611840e315982a00785d92bcfdb2.png image.thumb.png.10196866e75ce2336660b8828fe7127f.png

Good Morning everyone.

I am sure Ice Day as a fellow Chelmsfordian will agree although we have endured for the past fortnight or so a lot of cloudy, drizzly weather, albeit generally on the mild side, the ground for this time of the year seems much drier than usual. I cannot speak for other parts of the country but surely if repeated elsewhere this will bode well for the ground becoming frozen quicker once the colder weather arrives after what seems to be weeks of eager anticipation by eager beavers like me.  This in turn will mean that any snow that subsequently does fall (other parameters being in place of course) stands a better chance of settling. This morning's charts as kindly displayed by others this morning plus the comments by the more knowledgeable posters on here have enhanced my confidence that we are on the cusp of something memorable.

Kind Regards

Dave

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