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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
    17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    That always looked a strong possibility - thats what i went for in the rainfall competition.

    I heard a stat yesterday that the UK has had 2% of its average rainfall for January so far, 2%!!

    Its been a crazy 12 months really for a high pressure dominated uk, we will of course pay for this with three months of rain this summer.

    The models are looking good this morning, let’s get the cold established next weekend and then see what snow events pop up ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge

    ECM cold and dry, not liking that as it just leads to high bills for weeks on end. The trend of high pressure over the UK is something to consider though as it’s been the firm horse since last year!

    ECM rarely correct on its own so more likely a blend with today’s 0z - which will be much more fun.

    Until the next flip flop then...

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    15 minutes ago, PeteG said:

    28F is actually -2.2C

    Sorry yes I saw a 24F but wrote 28 ( 28 is -4.5 )

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    GFS 84 Jet stream coming into line with a sharper North South Gradient....

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    GFS 84 Jet stream coming into line with a sharper North South Gradient....

    Ha steve i was just going to post dont expect GFS to change so quickly..

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Nice to see 10 members now finishing below -5C, on the GEFS T850 ensemble: a good trend.:cold:

    image.thumb.png.5780e1e7fb63b9581ff4a9f90071b791.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    24 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Talk about trends. We're heading into the freezer people.

    It's a slow burner on the GEFS but cooling constantly prior to the total split of the vortex

    Screenshot_20190113-091954_Chrome.jpg

     

     

    Fully agree, looking very positive.  The Table version of the GEFS is a really good way of seeing trends and based on this the trends are very welcome indeed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield,754ft ASL
  • Location: Sheffield,754ft ASL
    11 minutes ago, Purga said:

    What a difference a run can make

    12z 240hrs yesterday - GLUM                   00z 240hrs today - EUPHORIA!

    image.thumb.png.58ea0141a9371b43daf3bb622f4a2b0f.pngimage.thumb.png.3bc5ea4a9c8dab7811128f2d931b8229.png

    Just goes to show how volatile things are though & how important it is not getting too hung up on one Op run. ?

    Not really,that just shows that people need to stop believing FI charts. Genuinely is pointless posting things 10 days out and getting excited (and even downbeat) by them when they will not look like that

    General theme looks like becoming increasingly colder. Looking dry at first which can be disheartening, but as ever we need the cold first. T144 is the absolute maximum for believing, and even then I'd be reluctant with that and would opt for T96, possibly T120. Cross model agreement needed (including the much, sometimes unfairly, criticised GFS). If there is any chance a UK cold spell could fail then it will

     

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Great EC this morning.it wasn't there yesterday evening so just a thought! That said it ties in with the ukmo gem ete so maybe for once things will find some concistencey?

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Here's the big 3 at 144 (GFS 6z @138)

    ECM image.thumb.png.a56653d7cdb2028da3fef860a8eceec2.png UKMO image.thumb.png.81e9d0f574c2c34cc9967418ef7fa4f5.png GFS image.thumb.png.8290698995fca6d48fc15993cd248983.png

    The 6z has taken a step towards the Euro's!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    UKMO chart is exceptional as is Euro day 10. Either would once a cut-off occurs produce a potential easterly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    38 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    If the red dashed line is the mean.....it remains around the zero, not trending milder.  There will be less cold parts as troughs get involved.....but that mean is excellent...indeed if you go 21st to 28th, trend is slightly downward again

     

    BFTP

    Of course  I always end up concentrating on the OP?

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    Now I don’t normally watch the bbc weather but I just found myself watching it, surely looking at the models etc it’s cold the weekend so why the hell does the lovely tv show 7c Saturday in London? I no it more than likely will change but if it’s getting much colder then surely they should be showing more like 4-5c unless of course the models are overdoing the ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    gFS does its thing and moves away from the euros.expect a greenland / Iceland high on the 6z?

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    Good morning all GFS from 00z to 06z seems more westerly based .

    I can understand the fustration with the models.

    Is it going to be mild westerly or cooler northerly. 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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