Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That always looked a strong possibility - thats what i went for in the rainfall competition.

I heard a stat yesterday that the UK has had 2% of its average rainfall for January so far, 2%!!

Its been a crazy 12 months really for a high pressure dominated uk, we will of course pay for this with three months of rain this summer.

The models are looking good this morning, let’s get the cold established next weekend and then see what snow events pop up

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

ECM cold and dry, not liking that as it just leads to high bills for weeks on end. The trend of high pressure over the UK is something to consider though as it’s been the firm horse since last year!

ECM rarely correct on its own so more likely a blend with today’s 0z - which will be much more fun.

Until the next flip flop then...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Steve Murr said:

GFS 84 Jet stream coming into line with a sharper North South Gradient....

Ha steve i was just going to post dont expect GFS to change so quickly..

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nice to see 10 members now finishing below -5C, on the GEFS T850 ensemble: a good trend.:cold:

image.thumb.png.5780e1e7fb63b9581ff4a9f90071b791.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
24 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Talk about trends. We're heading into the freezer people.

It's a slow burner on the GEFS but cooling constantly prior to the total split of the vortex

Screenshot_20190113-091954_Chrome.jpg

 

 

Fully agree, looking very positive.  The Table version of the GEFS is a really good way of seeing trends and based on this the trends are very welcome indeed.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield,754ft ASL
  • Location: Sheffield,754ft ASL
11 minutes ago, Purga said:

What a difference a run can make

12z 240hrs yesterday - GLUM                   00z 240hrs today - EUPHORIA!

image.thumb.png.58ea0141a9371b43daf3bb622f4a2b0f.pngimage.thumb.png.3bc5ea4a9c8dab7811128f2d931b8229.png

Just goes to show how volatile things are though & how important it is not getting too hung up on one Op run.

Not really,that just shows that people need to stop believing FI charts. Genuinely is pointless posting things 10 days out and getting excited (and even downbeat) by them when they will not look like that

General theme looks like becoming increasingly colder. Looking dry at first which can be disheartening, but as ever we need the cold first. T144 is the absolute maximum for believing, and even then I'd be reluctant with that and would opt for T96, possibly T120. Cross model agreement needed (including the much, sometimes unfairly, criticised GFS). If there is any chance a UK cold spell could fail then it will

 

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Great EC this morning.it wasn't there yesterday evening so just a thought! That said it ties in with the ukmo gem ete so maybe for once things will find some concistencey?

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Here's the big 3 at 144 (GFS 6z @138)

ECM image.thumb.png.a56653d7cdb2028da3fef860a8eceec2.png UKMO image.thumb.png.81e9d0f574c2c34cc9967418ef7fa4f5.png GFS image.thumb.png.8290698995fca6d48fc15993cd248983.png

The 6z has taken a step towards the Euro's!

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

UKMO chart is exceptional as is Euro day 10. Either would once a cut-off occurs produce a potential easterly.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
38 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

If the red dashed line is the mean.....it remains around the zero, not trending milder.  There will be less cold parts as troughs get involved.....but that mean is excellent...indeed if you go 21st to 28th, trend is slightly downward again

 

BFTP

Of course  I always end up concentrating on the OP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Now I don’t normally watch the bbc weather but I just found myself watching it, surely looking at the models etc it’s cold the weekend so why the hell does the lovely tv show 7c Saturday in London? I no it more than likely will change but if it’s getting much colder then surely they should be showing more like 4-5c unless of course the models are overdoing the ? 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

gFS does its thing and moves away from the euros.expect a greenland / Iceland high on the 6z

Edited by swfc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

Good morning all GFS from 00z to 06z seems more westerly based .

I can understand the fustration with the models.

Is it going to be mild westerly or cooler northerly. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...