Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Farnborough, Hampshire
  • Location: Farnborough, Hampshire
    1 hour ago, carinthian said:

    The ECM proceeds to build a block of very cold air to cover most of Central and East Britain out to day 10.

    C

    ECU0-240.gif.png

    Is -9 actually that cold though?  Wouldn’t that equate to 1-3 degrees above. 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

    ??Oh what a surpriseThat ECM is could be a great model watching day for us all looking forward to the 12z.If 12z is similar and repeats 00z it will settle the nerves. 

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
    9 minutes ago, ptow said:

    Is -9 actually that cold though?  Wouldn’t that equate to 1-3 degrees above. 

    850hpa is approx 1km up into the atmosphere. According to environmental lapse rate as temp declines by about 10’c per km. I’d expect temperatures to struggle to get above 1’c at a max, if there is snow cover temperatures wouldn’t get above freezing. All depends on air flow too which affects lapse rate.

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Morning haven’t even looked at the GFS or read the forum yet . 

    Just looked at the ECM and UKMO and all looking very good this morning ? 

    This = Good mood this morning ?

    FCDBFE8E-F38E-4D72-B59C-24ADEE8240E2.png

    5C75A0F3-0BB5-43CC-B14F-FF6033850202.png

    C5F6EBC8-AEE5-4E2F-B9D2-AD00C4EB48C0.png

    28995D6E-E7A4-4AFC-A07A-827DE21FDFAC.png

    2D177FD8-D3A8-4BD8-BBDF-1972F6474637.png

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Look at the cold pool over Norway building at 240 though!!!

    That really caught my eye as well Feb  That's the coldest pool to our east all winter, now if we could just tap into that.....

    image.thumb.png.b61da9ee554f37df310dcc3d1eec6748.png

     

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Farnborough, Hampshire
  • Location: Farnborough, Hampshire
    18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    No- colder.

    Thanks 

    Edited by Polar Maritime
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Also the GEFS looking great today . Lot of flat lining. Happy days . I feel we are gonna get a stonking easterly within the next few weeks with some seriously cold uppers . ?

    B70681CB-4CFB-4AC2-8993-C41BBBF0CF3D.png

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    A period of surface cold with less moisture (per the ECM) would be preferable to many of the operational runs delivered by the GFS which whilst looking pretty would have in reality been a bit of a sleety mess away from Scotland and northern hills. Marginal situations (should they arise) rarely deliver if arriving directly from a period of average or above average temperatures.

    My concern is that the ECM has form with Armageddon type output that either evaporates or gets watered down nearer the event.

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The greater uncertainty moving forward is less to do with the overall NH pattern but how far east the jet will be before it tracks se .

    The signal for the displaced Azores high has been constant for days even when the models have been chopping and changing in terms of detail for Western Europe .

    A good way to view this is with the ECM pressure ensembles, a good guide is to check London versus nw Scotland  , both show any incursion from the nw will be shallow , so after midweek when we have that low moving se the lowest pressure from 18 to 21 January is around 1005 , with a top of 1020 for Nw Scotland and around 1025 for London. It’s not till after this we see bigger spread .

    Snow prospects are always better with shallower low pressure , this type of set up with shortwave energy heading se and cold air in place ahead often produces some good snow totals .

    One word of caution though , where exactly will the track se in the jet occur .

    This is why although the NH pattern looks solid the crucial more local detail which is so important is still to be determined .

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Yes another great shift towards cold with the GEFS

    18z                                                                 00z

    image.thumb.png.ff71d33366cba5704cbb565107770ad5.pngimage.thumb.png.a2ba552f9c3138ef649c93347c738198.png

    ?

     

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Also the GEFS looking great today . Lot of flat lining. Happy days . I feel we are gonna get a stonking easterly within the next few weeks with some seriously cold uppers . ?

    B70681CB-4CFB-4AC2-8993-C41BBBF0CF3D.png

    Looking good and the sister vortex continues to be forecast to drain our way

    tempresult_iix9.gif

    tempresult_cso2.gif

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    21 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Looks a real possibility that January will be drier than average for many parts

     

    That always looked a strong possibility - thats what i went for in the rainfall competition.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Am I reading these wrong or is it trending milder in the extended? I see cold clusters though.

    Shows winds possible from any direction you prefer

     

    Screenshot_20190113-091147_Chrome.jpg

    Screenshot_20190113-091102_Chrome.jpg

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Good start to the 06 hrs runs .

    The ICON better upstream at T120hrs hrs and moving closer to the Euros .

    We’re looking for small incremental changes early on which later on will help in the bigger picture .

    Edited by nick sussex
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Vale of Belvoir
  • Location: Vale of Belvoir
    4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ECM daytime maximas at day 10

    Widely -2c but further North -3/-4 ? ( 28F is -4.5c )

    9C034F04-B3D8-43EE-9BC7-C1236ECEC23C.thumb.jpeg.f303cb9e8d5533440aadec824481325b.jpeg

     

    28F is actually -2.2C

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
    43 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Looks a real possibility that January will be drier than average for many parts

     

    Dry as 2005-06 winter so far ? drier even.

    But winter looks like its aroud the corner with the Nly digging in further even this week now,can still mean very dry though.

    Edited by Snowyowl9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ECM daytime maximas at day 10

    Widely -2c but further North -3/-4 ? ( 28F is -4.5c )

    9C034F04-B3D8-43EE-9BC7-C1236ECEC23C.thumb.jpeg.f303cb9e8d5533440aadec824481325b.jpeg

     

    -2C= 28.4F Steve...?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...