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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

GFSP bringing in another big northerly just before low res kicks in. Could be storm of the century actually!!!!

image.thumb.png.55c68f0e5e3ceb6c84a9a086cc2182a0.png

in all seriousness what would this chart actually lead to?? because to me that looks the UK would be in a lot of bother..

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Just now, bigsnow said:

in all seriousness what would this chart actually lead to?? because to me that looks the UK would be in a lot of bother..

I would guess anywhere with elevation would get severely buried, low lying areas to the south a wintery mix.  Happy to be proved wrong though! 

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3 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

GEFS 12z look good tonight feb as in there is more flat lining runs . An indication that it could be more substantial cold for longer , rather than fleeting blows ?  

2D740359-900C-453B-B337-0E5397FE3C9F.png

Just catching up on the model discussion pages. I take it the signs are positive with so many pages?! Out of interest what does the snow row go up to on this chart would you say 10 on the snow row= 50% likelihood of snow for instance?

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4 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

in all seriousness what would this chart actually lead to?? because to me that looks the UK would be in a lot of bother..

Could do with system being about 200 miles further east so more of a direct northerly would allow less mixing of the airmass over the Atlantic still cold enough for snow with modest elevation in the south less height required up north probably need to be away from the coasts though. Temps around 0-3 north of Manchester 3-6 south of Manchester hence elevation required

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1 minute ago, bigsnow said:

so can i ask why it is that when a lobe of pv drops over the USA they get massive minus temps and endless snowfall but when a lobe of it drops over us we dont get the same??

To reach us the frigid air has to travel across warm sea, thus buggering any chance of us getting anything like what they get across the pond. 

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7 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Just catching up on the model discussion pages. I take it the signs are positive with so many pages?! Out of interest what does the snow row go up to on this chart would you say 10 on the snow row= 50% likelihood of snow for instance?

Yer think it’s 20 or maybe 21 . So yer 10 would be around 50% ?

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1 minute ago, bigsnow said:

so can i ask why it is that when a lobe of pv drops over the USA they get massive minus temps and endless snowfall but when a lobe of it drops over us we dont get the same??

The system travels over a relatively warm ocean surface to reach us so milder air can mix out the colder air aloft as it moves from north to south where as the states has no warm sea for the airmass to get to modified so cold uppers remain intact as it moves north to south. 

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6 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

so can i ask why it is that when a lobe of pv drops over the USA they get massive minus temps and endless snowfall but when a lobe of it drops over us we dont get the same??

I've asked this before. Oceans modify the airmass, sure, but at that latitude ocean temps shouldn't modify to that degree.

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thanks everybody... think i understand it now. but then how do we get cold zonal from the northwest as the bbc mentioned much colder weather from that area earlier today?? i know lots of questions but im just trying to get a grip on the charts and how they effect us etc.

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I've asked this before. Oceans modify the airmass, sure, but at that latitude ocean temps shouldn't modify to that degree.

Depends if they are significantly milder than a landmass, and a landmass of Canada is far colder than an Icelandic sea.

 

Infact thats why they can get ridiculous lake effect snow in November. because the great lakes are still warm but the airmass is as figid as an Easterly in the UK in february.

 

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1 minute ago, bigsnow said:

thanks everybody... think i understand it now. but then how do we get cold zonal from the northwest as the bbc mentioned much colder weather from that area earlier today?? i know lots of questions but im just trying to get a grip on the charts and how they effect us etc.

I'm also intrigued as to how the Arctic ocean can modify uppers more than a 2000 mile stretch across the N atlantic. Happens all so often. Yet we can get - 8s blowing across from Canada on a cold zonal flow. 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I've asked this before. Oceans modify the airmass, sure, but at that latitude ocean temps shouldn't modify to that degree.

It can also depend on Sea Ice extents in the arctic circle but due to climate change and less sea ice compared to about 30 years ago the modifying is more extreme due to less ice over our side of the pole so the modification of the air mass is quicker. I think there’s a learning thread that bb62/63 posted in before explaining this in more depth.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Depends if they are significantly milder than a landmass, and a landmass of Canada is far colder than an Icelandic sea.

I chose to believe the UK is cursed ? 

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Depends if they are significantly milder than a landmass, and a landmass of Canada is far colder than an Icelandic sea.

there is nothing to warm the airmass or any mountains to uplift the air its all flat land from the arctic ocen to the gulf of mexico

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