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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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25 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

that was a great watch that DR climatologist they had on seemed very confident a change to colder weather was on the way and the map they showed was interesting regarding high and low pressure anomalies for later in the month.

They seemed very confident all round and even quite excited so yes and add that to below average temp anomalies with increased precipitation anomalies that are showing and we could be looking at something really special. 

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1 minute ago, Mizzle said:

Liking the look of wk 3 & 4 in these anomaly charts🧣🧤😁 

Yes if that isn't serious snow potential i don't know what is!

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Before the 12z's come out I'll show the swingometers.

image.thumb.png.4cca1f480fbf9799d5ca59832958c24e.pngimage.thumb.png.e51df2fabf75c8bf3d191b93e329d4b3.png 

Not bad to be honest, quite a lot of runs are just cold zonality but there are some more promising members in there. Run of the 06z's yet again goes to the GFS parallel with some strong Greenland blocking showing. 

image.thumb.png.d071c47ec09a1bffa427059ea7787157.png

T168 cold still bottled up over the arctic...

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7 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Not bad to be honest, quite a lot of runs are just cold zonality but there are some more promising members in there. Run of the 06z's yet again goes to the GFS parallel with some strong Greenland blocking showing. T168 cold still bottled up over the arctic...

Indeed, many of the GEFS were actually zonal. I'm not doubting that there is a lot more potential than this time last week but a cold last third of Jan is not a done deal yet, let alone a severe winter spell. Some potential yes, but my garden is always full of 'potential snow men' whereas there are rarely any real ones!!

The weird and wacky charts showing in FI are presumably GFS in low res not knowing what to do with all the conflicting signals. Its a good sign though as logically (as others have said) they are the first signs in the modelling of the SSW. Lets just hope we don't end up with a different type SSW (i.e. wind direction) via a west based set up!

 

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28 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The extended EPS is finally starting to show something a little more excited weeks 2/3.

773252265_EXTEPS.thumb.png.0e1983d54b739066b0d649869c224ec4.png

Extensive blocking/deep trough to the East = Cold Northerlies. GFS ENS mean looking pretty good, too!

GEFS.thumb.png.d3e015960a88c97e310852e62dee618e.pngGFS1.thumb.png.d00be52acf8d5a535a6d53d01b7f2ace.png

 

EPS has aroused interest in extended for the last few days decent coutinuity that doesn’t suggest cold northerlies looks northeasterly definitely a continental tug.

last Friday...

17739BC7-FE28-4A87-8DBB-DEDC9FE8A433.thumb.png.8672e7ec10c63c082344b76ecaf1acfe.png

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I'd really hold out because we have had regular charts been thrown out from the end of December till now.

I'm staying on the fence and Prozac till at least another 7 days.

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GFS (P) defo bringing the cold charts further forward now in it's modelling around 180 now - let's see how it progresses in the next couple of runs - general concensus now good the cold and snow is on it's way

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Maybe it is a good thing the operational output isn't showing winter wonderland synoptic just yet to save us getting too frenzied.

But the fact is the ensembles on ECM and GFS are going the right way and the background signals are there for a cold spell in the last 3rd of Jan.

I think it is more important we see the signal firming up within the ensembles than the odd stonking Op at these ranges (exciting as they are) and currently the ensemble suits are slowly firmng up on cold.

It looks like the earliest we can see anything develop is around the 18th/19th but more likely a couple of days or so after that.

We have seen cold signals come and go many times and there is always room for things to go pear shaped over the snow starved lands of Britain so still a long way to go but we shouldn't get too down if the Ops don't show cold and blocked by day 10 just now.

If in another couple of days the ensembles are wobbling and the Ops still not showing interest from day 10 then it will be time for concern but for now I'm just going to enjoy the ride.

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Posted (edited)

Icon looking ok at 150 hrs.good push of heighths from the pacific side increasing the arctic high,better ridging in atlantic also!!!

Edited by swfc

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Quite annoyed that the CTPM (Chocolate Teapot Model/ICON 😉) doesn’t go past 180 as it was just getting interesting!

A0E3E3ED-E68A-459C-B660-13F66CF29832.png

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, swfc said:

Icon looking ok at 150 hrs.good push of heighths from the pacific side increasing the arctic high,interesting!!!

Yep going for some height rises at 171h   surely its to soon though for heights towards greenland  

Edited by weirpig

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Posted (edited)

Icon is v good, possible onset of the freeze seems to be creeping forward.

99DE3E1B-9CD3-42DE-B140-B566757AA70F.png

Edited by Ali1977

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4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Maybe it is a good thing the operational output isn't showing winter wonderland synoptic just yet to save us getting too frenzied.

But the fact is the ensembles on ECM and GFS are going the right way and the background signals are there for a cold spell in the last 3rd of Jan.

I think it is more important we see the signal firming up within the ensembles than the odd stonking Op at these ranges (exciting as they are) and currently the ensemble suits are slowly firmng up on cold.

It looks like the earliest we can see anything develop is around the 18th/19th but more likely a couple of days or so after that.

We have seen cold signals come and go many times and there is always room for things to go pear shaped over the snow starved lands of Britain so still a long way to go but we shouldn't get too down if the Ops don't show cold and blocked by day 10 just now.

If in another couple of days the ensembles are wobbling and the Ops still not showing interest from day 10 then it will be time for concern but for now I'm just going to enjoy the ride.

I think this could finally be the week proper Winter OP charts slowly begin to appear, from everything I have read and seen the last third of Jan for Winter to arrive looks a good bet mate 👍

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16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

obviously if this was a bog standard setup (if such a thing exists) i.e. no SSW, then I would be pretty sceptical about what the EC46 is showing and expectations from a NWP point of view at such timescales (D10+). I would say I'm cautiously optimistic right now, the fact we have the EC, CFS, Met Office all basically singing from the same hymn sheet makes we wonder what could possibly go..... I think I'll stop just short of finishing that sentence..

the next 7-10 days is going to feel like eternity on here, the expectations are understandably high.  But this is what we all come on this forum for, I'm not one to wish time away but I hope the next week goes quickly and without incident!

from the 12z and future suites, I'm looking for the UKMO to give us some early indicators upstream that things are on track, as well as Building Heights across the Polar regions and breaking down that PV Lobe. The GFS Op I'm not to worried about as it will flip flop around for a while, but the GEFS Ens are important and will hopefully help quash any doubts, looking for the mean to steadily get colder. ECM, really want to see it have D6 comparisons with the UKMO so we can then take D7-10 with some form of realistic view of what's shaping up.

Enjoy 🙂 

👍

 

There is always a slight wobble with a model somewhere, always! 🙂

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I know the GFS(p) 6z was a stonker but correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that the new GFS? If that's so then should we give that more credence than the GFS? It's not a leading question but a genuine one as the parallel seems to get lumped with the lower end models? Or am I wrong and the GFS(p) is still being tweaked?

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Posted (edited)

UKMO 144 hr  similar to the icon with the 1045 articish high

 

UN144-21.gif

Edited by weirpig

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

obviously if this was a bog standard setup (if such a thing exists) i.e. no SSW, then I would be pretty sceptical about what the EC46 is showing and expectations from a NWP point of view at such timescales (D10+). I would say I'm cautiously optimistic right now, the fact we have the EC, CFS, Met Office all basically singing from the same hymn sheet makes we wonder what could possibly go..... I think I'll stop just short of finishing that sentence..

the next 7-10 days is going to feel like eternity on here, the expectations are understandably high.  But this is what we all come on this forum for, I'm not one to wish time away but I hope the next week goes quickly and without incident!

from the 12z and future suites, I'm looking for the UKMO to give us some early indicators upstream that things are on track, as well as Building Heights across the Polar regions and breaking down that PV Lobe. The GFS Op I'm not to worried about as it will flip flop around for a while, but the GEFS Ens are important and will hopefully help quash any doubts, looking for the mean to steadily get colder. ECM, really want to see it have D6 comparisons with the UKMO so we can then take D7-10 with some form of realistic view of what's shaping up.

Enjoy 🙂 

👍

 

8
8

Indeed and as I mentioned here, the real fun and games are just sitting outside the reliable right now, but by next Monday at the latest, the wintry charts are within reach and more importantly realistic in nature, hence why I'm never a fan of D8 onwards charts, unless they are repeated daily at least once right down to t+48 hours or whatever. The first wintry taster for a lucky few is today through Thursday then back to mostly dry and settled, after that post D8/D9 is where it ALL kicks off. 

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Ramp said:

There is always a slight wobble with a model somewhere, always! 🙂

Very true, wobbles we don't mind, i.e 1 run. I don't deem 1 run run (wobble) an incident 

4 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

I know the GFS(p) 6z was a stonker but correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that the new GFS? If that's so then should we give that more credence than the GFS? It's not a leading question but a genuine one as the parallel seems to get lumped with the lower end models? Or am I wrong and the GFS(p) is still being tweaked?

It's on trial, so until it replaces the GFS proper it would be difficult to disregard the GFS,although it has been outperforming the GFS I believe recently.

Edited by karlos1983

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Posted (edited)

There will be many wobbles on the way, I'm sure; but one hurdle seems to be out of the way: that stinky HP is finally pulling away...

image.thumb.png.3c7c73751388cbc4eedb760ac2cf7a8b.png

Is that the BFG over Greenland? image.thumb.png.6220e9e9adb3d83804964db9f613d885.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 

It's on trial, so until it replaces the GFS proper it would be difficult to disregard the GFS,although it has been outperforming the GFS I believe recently.

Indeed. We are very lucky that they give us access to the Parallel run. Working in software, we use a parallel run as final testing for a new system to ensure that it operates in the same way as the existing system. Generally this is to ensure that no errors or unhandled exceptions occur during normal operational loads. 

Of course, in this case the output will be different because the underlying calculations are different; I would guess that they have a set of parameters by which they judge the veracity of the output and if it is outside certain bounds they would apply tweaks. But, as a rule, parallel runs are only performed when you are confident that you have your system ready for go live so it should be pretty close to the final operational system 

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