Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, as I said yesterday, I can't see these much touted Greenland heights any time soon. All looks standard winter fayre and some people really are pveryutting lipstick on a pig with regards to current output.

Very much the point it's standard winter fayre at best. Nothing special or even properly cold. Indeed for Ireland it's a case of next please

[bradymk]

Let's not forget though that those real eye catching EC 46 anomalies were not until Week 24th-31st and the week after that.

Not trying to sugar coat the end of that run, but just a reminder that the period of real interest is still perhaps after the EC op timeframe.

Lots of changes though run to run so hard to have any confidence either way in the output. Part of the ride...

Edited January 12, 2019 by bradythemole

[SMU]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I do hope the ecm op is struggling Steve. If not, then??? 

It may be ( it may not )

The ECM 12z bias kicks in 144 onwards sometimes - so we need to see how mild the uppers are V the mean at day 10..

I would however always take short term colder trending than long term ups & downs when the volatility is high....

[knocker]

Merely an observation because of it's strength but at the end of the ecm the jet is impressive

[tight isobar]

A few snaps from the ops..

Regarding atlantic welling..

Diss-regard for a min the other out -ramifications..

On an-basic-raw/op- scale..

I think we know where we are going!!!

Edited January 12, 2019 by tight isobar

[Badgers01]

25 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The cracking thing is...

That we cannot now miss a spell..

Not snap..

And prolongment will become the talk soon.

I admire your unswerving optimism - rest of the run is not a big freeze up - when can we expect the models to jump in line I wonder? it has to be a nagging doubt that the models have the broad brush picture correct just occasional cold incursions - typical winter fair !

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Very much the point it's standard winter fayre at best. Nothing special or even properly cold. Indeed for Ireland it's a case of next please

You cannot spin it as standard fayre-

London 850 average is -2c for Jan so thats about 6-7 below ave for the time of year...

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

You cannot spin it as standard fayre-

London 850 average is -2c for Jan so thats about 6-7 below ave for the time of year...

Perhaps for your location

We got a foot of snow here last March from the last SSW

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, as I said yesterday, I can't see these much touted Greenland heights any time soon. All looks standard winter fayre and some people really are putting lipstick on a pig with regards to current output.

Greenland heights certainly are not the be all and end all in the early part of this upcoming spell, euro troughs equally important I would suggest example this starfish chart from GFS 12z T336 earlier

If the long rangers are to be believed the Greenland high comes later - into Feb.

[Vikos]

Yet again, simplest synoptic rule: cold canada, warm Euope due strong cyclogenesies

That's a german Autobahn on the atlantic, wild west at it's best

 

Edited January 12, 2019 by Vikos

[karlos1983]

How about show some charts to back up your broad statements, like the rest of us.... 

it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out a route to cold(er) from here.

Heights stretching out into the Atlantic and primed to ridge north.... 

How far north.....no idea yet...

Edited January 12, 2019 by karlos1983

[SMU]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Perhaps for your location

We got a foot of snow here last March from the last SSW

But the cold is rarely evenly distributed...

Anyway the ECM @240 only needs to slide further west for a snow event, but I do understand your frustration for Ireland as no polar NW flows this far this winter!

[Froze were the Days]

30 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

As last year taught me, good things come to those that wait! 

Not hard to see a cold outbreak following that 240 chart  

Seriously how many times have we heard that this winter on the ecm post day 10 !?!...you'd think that would go onto produce maybe something similar to what GFS/p showing a few days down the line but too many variables at that range. On the face of it 198-240z nothing to write home about.

Edited January 12, 2019 by Froze were the Days

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

You cannot spin it as standard fayre-

London 850 average is -2c for Jan so thats about 6-7 below ave for the time of year...

Yes but even in an 'average' winter you'd expect instances where this is the case. A glancing blow of -8 uppers (I say glancing because of their limited reach), is pretty standard for January. Heck I even had 10cm of snow in winter 2007!

[Tim Bland]

ECM May be cold early on but only has a dusting of snow. Day 10 is awefull, no other way of putting it. Let’s hope GFSp is correct and ECM is a mild outlier and reverts to earlier output tomorrow 

[Frank Trough]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

You cannot spin it as standard fayre-

London 850 average is -2c for Jan so thats about 6-7 below ave for the time of year...

But in an average winter you would still expect the odd colder shot?  as a whole, this winter so far is dismal and the output going forward shows a Standard colder spell, but nothing more. The odd day here and there of colder uppers doesn't make a freeze.

luckily anything inside t+168 would be a bonus. My understanding is we should still be looking further ahead.

 

 

[snowice]

There is to much nit picking in here tonight! We should all try to keep it friendly. The models aren't that bad. Just need to respect each others opinion. 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Seriously how many times have we heard that this winter on the ecm post day 10 !?!...you'd think that would go onto produce maybe something similar to what GFS/p showing a few days down the line but too many variables at that range. On the face of it 199-240z nothing to write home about.

That’s not really an argument though is it? The other half of winter hadn’t undergone a SSW.. That’s just a Kop out answer. 

[Djdazzle]

It’s only the progged SSW effect that is keeping me interested. If it wasn’t for that, there would be very little in the models to get excited about. Far too much variability.

[Paul]

Bloody hell, what is wrong with some people tonight!

Those continuing to post personal comments aimed at other members will be stopped from posting for a period of time. 

And if you want to moan because a particular run doesn't have snowmaggedon in your backyard at t+3000 or whatever it may be, please go to the banter thread, no-one who wants to read about the model output is interested in pointless moaning and the bickering which follows it. 

 

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Certain kind of fool said:

But in an average winter you would still expect the odd colder shot?  as a whole, this winter so far is dismal and the output going forward shows a Standard colder spell, but nothing more. The odd day here and there of colder uppers doesn't make a freeze.

luckily anything inside t+168 would be a bonus. My understanding is we should still be looking further ahead.

 

 

Agreed however you are assuming that its over before its begun!

The start of said cold spell is Day 5... -

The warmest day on ECM is day 10 which we all know can & will be totally different when its day 6-

We should be happier that the midterm is upgrading as thats much closer to reality...

As they say, get the cold in then worry about snow...

[ICE COLD]

Well I think the ecm 12z was ok . What is all the doom and gloom ? It’s cold from T120 to T216 . It will all change by tomorrow anyway . Yes it goes a bit rubbish towards the end but it won’t come off like that anyway . And if it did end up like day 10 it looks primed anyway . 

[karlos1983]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

It’s only the progged SSW effect that is keeping me interested. If it wasn’t for that, there would be very little in the models to get excited about. Far too much variability.

Agree. If there were no SSW I’d be flying my flag right now. With the energy over NE Canada we would be screwed. But we do have a SSW and the longer range models are painting the picture not quite being seen in nwp. It will

[Skyraker]

Those craving an easterly are perhaps missing the point of how epic a set up like this can be and what it can 

potentially deliver. 

This type of setup with marginal polar maritime incursions can deliver round after round of very snowy conditions instead of a one shot Atlantic battle with entrenched cold. We could be talking feet of snow over almost a month, however possible rain events will be interspersed with a following snowy reload.

I personally would rather roll the dice and have a history book set of events than play safe and rely on lake effect snow from an easterly. We’ve had that, it’s nice, but it’s not epic.

 

This could be.

[MattStoke]

Up to +192 hours I thought the ECM looked quite similar to its seasonal model output (which has done well so far this winter), with high pressure to our west/south west. Further ahead the seasonal model has a strong signal for higher than average pressure to our north west, so I wouldn’t worry too much that daily model shows something different and less favourable for cold. Plus the fact it’s so different to this morning’s update (unlike the very consistent seasonal model output).

Edited January 12, 2019 by MattStoke