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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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47 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Lol at the para having 65cm of snow by the end in Ireland 

Don't laugh at it, get the snow shovel out. ? Might well happen following after our upcoming UK government shutdown and Europe sends their weather our way. Two predictions in one for you all there.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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13 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

I don’t remember the fv3 modelling anything seasonal in December.

 

Perhaps you have a chart to jog our memory.

Seriously? Go back and look at the archives or check back on the old threads. 

Who cares anyway when you have the ECM ?

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At +192 hours, the ECM output resembles its seasonal model for that period, with high pressure to our west/south west. Beyond that the seasonal model gives the signal for high pressure to establish to our north west, but that may at the moment be beyond range of where the daily model can resolve things properly (we’ll see).

ECH1-192.gif

Edited by MattStoke
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Just now, CreweCold said:

image.thumb.png.5e6707ef9262a7006b3c4ccdc9c8ba5a.png

That Icelandic low really needs a sharper dive SE. At this point the jet N arm is preventing the Atlantic HP from building N and in fact shearing it towards the UK

Luckily mate it's far enough away not to panic too much. If it doesn't slide it could still pinch the high north.

 

Overall ECM is good definitely wintery but nothing sustainable yet.

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Poor ecm at 192 you won't get a prolonged cold spell with the jet riding over the top like that, still miles away from anything decent

216 even worse, warm outlier again? Most of the op ecm runs seem to be 

 

Edited by SLEETY
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30 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ecm..

Gain and gather!..

Feed via momentum-and bully'ing on the pv-(as a whole)..

The cracking thing is...

That we cannot now miss a spell..

Not snap..

And prolongment will become the talk soon.

ECH0-192.gif

Steady as she goes, the next few days runs will be crucial, D6 for a long time has been where all the fun and games start to kick off. Equally, I'm liking the tendency for one or two charts hinting at 0c Maximums down in Central Southern England by then, definitely brrr. Need a few days to nail the snowier prospects yet though but I think many are likely to see some within 10 to 14 days if not before, I would think.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

image.thumb.png.5e6707ef9262a7006b3c4ccdc9c8ba5a.png

That Icelandic low really needs a sharper dive SE. At this point the jet N arm is preventing the Atlantic HP from building N and in fact shearing it towards the UK

Yes too flat upstream . At day 9 we see the longest shortwave in history upstream running from the Caribbean to Newfoundland and the energy piles over the top sinking the high . 

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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Poor ecm at 192 you won't get a prolonged cold spell with the jet riding over the top like that, still miles away from anything decent

 

Poor ?? It’s cold from T120 . I quite like it actually. 

C8455355-EA71-4102-9277-2132C2B47171.png

178BE7D0-3600-48C3-843F-C6C9F996BA46.png

94C3CE59-B4F7-4CB7-BB93-A4C0F09DF49C.png

310B5933-3568-45CF-BDF2-A8DE0BBC7DB6.png

B898CA8E-E696-4643-BE46-B180E7A11F82.png

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Poor ecm at 192 you won't get a prolonged cold spell with the jet riding over the top like that, still miles away from anything decent

 

Aye, much prefer the GFS at 216, the sliding 'PV' chunk, cannot see that on EC

 

gfs-0-216.png?12ECM1-216.GIF?12-0

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