Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Dare I say that it may still drain the lobe from Canada.....eventually

It will, just variations on a theme really.  As I, along with many others, have said today.... all roads appear to lead to cold!  At 252 we have this, which is just the start.

[tight isobar]

Teeth pulling!.

When-you have an-early destruction of the upper layers-and rhe drip/and cause is apparent, .

As well as a million other by-factors and slot synops..

And you still get....the buy me a beer and i'll get ya 20 nxt saturday crew!! .

....and remain dehydrated!!!

C,mon..

All drivers/factors are red hot(no pun intended)-

And model miss -match is atm 'fraught'..

We are GOING COLD...

IMO HEADLINE MAKING COLD...LATE JAN/EARLY-FEB...

 

D7321806-58C2-4625-8A39-02271B7958EC.webp

Edited January 12, 2019 by tight isobar

[Norrance]

A couple of posts have been hidden. Please keep to the models especially when it is busy and there is a lot to discuss,

[SteveB]

I think the chance of upgrades short term (between now and next weekend) are draining away fast, looking like the 21st is going to pass us by, maybe 25th onwards is where we need to look at

[Ice Day]

Flippin 'eck Tucker (yes, that does age me). All sorts of FI shenanigans and whilst it won't look like on the day, the theme of PV disintegration continues.

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

D7321806-58C2-4625-8A39-02271B7958EC.webp

Some commentary would be helpful to go with them charts. Some who are new and still learning won't have a clue what your post is highlighting 

[ICE COLD]

Just look at the USA

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Ice Day said:

Flippin 'eck Tucker (yes, that does age me). All sorts of FI shenanigans and whilst it won't look like on the day, the theme of PV disintegration continues.

I like that Northern hemisphere pattern

[Vikos]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Just look at the USA

Just look at the the date

[Midlander]

Quite like the GFS12Z May just have to be patient and allow the Americans to enjoy some cold before it hopefully comes over here.

[Mucka]

I think the concern with the GFS is that it isn't as if it weren't previously modelling a nice slider further W, so it is trending the wrong way today so far.

The 06z ensembles were a wobble.

Let's see how the 12z set look and if ECM goes with UKMO.

We will probably have to wait a day or so until we know what is going to happen with any slider scenario so FI is really 196/120 when considering any marginal snow events setting up and then of course we have to wait until they are on top of us to make a decent regional forecast.

[Methuselah]

A classic rain/sleet/snow mix?

 

[Vikos]

When the split axis doesn't match, then it doesn't match...

 

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I like that Northern hemisphere pattern

Indeed, the high over Alaska is quite something to behold pumping warm air straight to the heart of the Arctic.

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Some commentary would be helpful to go with them charts. Some who are new and still learning won't have a clue what your post is highlighting 

Revert- your wish is my command!!.

 

Edited January 12, 2019 by tight isobar

[Vikos]

GFS12 OP is for the dust bin as we say here

neg Temps all down to Florida...

but, that's a 300 Chart... nice to look at, nothing to be serious...

 

[MattStoke]

If you ignore the specific details (which are pointless beyond a week and will always change), you can clearly see the general pattern of low pressure moving from north west to south east, rather than the 'normal' west to east, which would lead to generally increasingly cold uppers and increasing snow risk as a result. 

People seem to be getting hung up on the lack of frigidly cold and blocked charts showing in the early to mid term, yet it's the gradually colder trend we are looking for and that is clearly evident. A sudden plunge into deep cold, this is not. This is a real 'slow burner' and may well mean a longer than normal overall cold and wintry spell, rather than a short but sharp cold spell.

The model output we're seeing ties in well with the BBC and Met Office outlooks, for a downward trend in temperatures, initially in the north but spreading south with time, but with some milder incursions possible at times. The chances of the most significant cold and highest snow risks are still beyond the model output, however, and even when they are within range of the computer models it may well come down to short term forecasting or even 'nowcasting' for individual snow events. 

It looks to me like a rather messy but overall cold outlook = Plenty of snow opportunities rather than just cold and dry, but running the risk of some milder blips and marginal conditions (but these reducing with time as the risk of more significant cold builds). Higher risk but greater potential reward.

All looks very promising and to be going as the most knowledgable posters and pros are expecting it to.

Edited January 12, 2019 by MattStoke

[Leo97t]

In other news, the cfs as bad as it may be is also backing off the idea of any cold compared to a few days ago. Still in the game though, but not looking nearly as good as Thursday 

[Methuselah]

So much tail-end difference (one new solution per each new run) says it all really...FI is FI is FI!

They sure as heck cannae all be right...they can all be wrong though?

[Badgers01]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

So much tail-end difference (one new solution per each new run) says it all really...FI is FI is FI!

They sure as heck cannae all be right...they can all be wrong though?

that Azores high is never going to give up !! 28th Jan and warm sw winds return - doesn't look much like headline grabbing cold for the end of jan !!

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Devonshire said:

I wan't for a minute suggesting you start up a France thread to inhabit! Merely noting that with a more southerly tracking jet southern France is more likely to get the dross UK usually gets (and UK will do very well as opposed to south France if the jet goes far enough south).  I can definitely remember a few moans about lack of snow in Pyrenees  (or however it is spelled) - was just wondering if there was some 'bleed over' of French-oriented downbeatness in your earlier post that might be misinterpreted as being wrt UK. There is enough targetted downbeatness aimed at UK coldies without potential for mis-attributed gloom!

A southerly tracking jet is fine, you guys get the snow and the Pyrenees get lots of that too. 

Really you have to believe me there’s no cross over . And I’m the last person to target UK coldies .  And if I’m going to moan about snow down here it’s not that often because I don’t expect it anyway . I’m only at 1200 feet , we do sometimes get some but generally it needs a more easterly type set up and they’re not exactly queuing up!

Anyway back to the models , very nice UKMO output more amplified than the GFS. 

[Banbury]

9 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

In other news, the cfs as bad as it may be is also backing off the idea of any cold compared to a few days ago. Still in the game though, but not looking nearly as good as Thursday 

Shows blocking ?????

 

But its CFS 

[Froze were the Days]

21 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Just look at the USA

I remember at the start of the New Year US forecasters were predicting very mild conditions in the mid-west and the northern states from the impact of the SSW around mid-month onwards - so on that basis they've been about as accurate as what the metO 30 day outlooks have been since late October (not saying they'll continue to be wrong)!...and that's if the above forecast is correct.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Shows blocking ?????

 

But its CFS 

I think he means the Greenland anomalies were much stronger even in week 4.

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

that Azores high is never going to give up !! 28th Jan and warm sw winds return - doesn't look much like headline grabbing cold for the end of jan !!

 But are you going to believe a Day 16 chart ?? Not only that a GFS day 16 chart .