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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS nothing like it!! 120 here.

34876268-C872-4ABE-9108-9C0D1275A131.png

No it isn't but neither was the 06z

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

I can answer that for you right now ranging from -8 in NE Scotland to around 0 further south west

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.5572271da082f369c16bbde9062a1646.GIF

Yes so outside of the north east there is no chance of snow. It is extremely difficult / impossible to get snow wo sub - 5 without having deeply entrenched surface cold

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2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Yes so outside of the north east there is no chance of snow. It is extremely difficult / impossible to get snow wo sub - 5 without having deeply entrenched surface cold

-6 was mixed to the surface to the day before- so a North Midlands / North wales / NW type snow event ( usual caveats support- a little elevation )

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
3 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Yes so outside of the north east there is no chance of snow. It is extremely difficult / impossible to get snow wo sub - 5 without having deeply entrenched surface cold

Really depends on the surface cold too... If temperatures are at 1'c or so max, then snow is possible as long as uppers remain below zero.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

GFS v UKMO 144Z where's your money going??? UKMet for me 

Screenshot_20190112-161824_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190112-161907_Chrome.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

The Ukmo is far from superb in my opinion. It's okay snow for Northeast rain hill sleet for many. It's middle of Winter....nothing special. It's been a very drawn out debacle this SSW and it would be nice to see something proper and sustained in the models. These sliding lows and faint height rises after the last few weeks taste a little like mutton dressed up as lamb

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

The Ukmo is far from superb in my opinion. It's okay snow for Northeast rain hill sleet for many. It's middle of Winter....nothing special. It's been a very drawn out debacle this SSW and it would be nice to see something proper and sustained in the models. These sliding lows and faint height rises after the last few weeks taste a little like mutton dressed up as lamb

If the UKMO is far from superb what do you call the GFS!! No where near as good as UKMO 

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The Ukmo is far from superb in my opinion. It's okay snow for Northeast rain hill sleet for many. It's middle of Winter....nothing special. It's been a very drawn out debacle this SSW and it would be nice to see something proper and sustained in the models. These sliding lows and faint height rises after the last few weeks taste a little like mutton dressed up as lamb

Drawn out debacle ??

In what way ? The results of a SSW aren't instant 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If the UKMO is far from superb what do you call the GFS!! No where near as good as UKMO 

gFS is poor .tbh tho he does have a point given it will be midwinter ete.plenty of time but nothing on either to get excited about at the said time frame ete

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
11 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Yes so outside of the north east there is no chance of snow. It is extremely difficult / impossible to get snow wo sub - 5 without having deeply entrenched surface cold

not entirely true to be fair......thickness values (the amount of atmosphere between two pressure boundaries) and especially dew points/WBFL are major parameters....in theory you can snowfall with T850's on or just below 0C with low DAM values and dew points/Wet Bulb temps of 0C.....

edit, Ben and Steve make similar points

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

GFS has lost any NW/SE ejection this run compared to 06z but am I surprised?

Screenshot_20190112-162849_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190112-162829_Chrome.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Nice to see you positive as ever...

His first couple of sentences represents a realistic view imho.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

You're not wrong..... easterly following by an incoming northerly!?

216 image.thumb.png.56a22988990f0f98fcfc906640edfb26.png 228 image.thumb.png.bce10978667f97121a13cb12bcc8cb0a.png

Only the GEM, but very nice all the same

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
8 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The Ukmo is far from superb in my opinion. It's okay snow for Northeast rain hill sleet for many. It's middle of Winter....nothing special. It's been a very drawn out debacle this SSW and it would be nice to see something proper and sustained in the models. These sliding lows and faint height rises after the last few weeks taste a little like mutton dressed up as lamb

Think you’re wrong there December 10th 2017 delivered under very marginal 850hPa temps -2C was good enough it’s a flabby low too looks great for evaporative cooking. And the fact low pressure is sliding is indicative of something much more bigger/interesting going on.

ED999128-609C-42ED-A905-00612DEEA5ED.thumb.png.458e938d551ede4b7a0dc87212aeb020.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

I am not going to try and paint a good picture about this....it's crud and if it doesn't sit on the milder side I'm changing my obsession(hobby)

gfsnh-0-216.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

Some posts on the previous page are more suited to the banter thread. If they do not refer to the models please post elsewhere.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
14 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The Ukmo is far from superb in my opinion. It's okay snow for Northeast rain hill sleet for many. It's middle of Winter....nothing special. It's been a very drawn out debacle this SSW and it would be nice to see something proper and sustained in the models. These sliding lows and faint height rises after the last few weeks taste a little like mutton dressed up as lamb

The run is good at T144, and I would have (as always with UKMO) liked to see the next few days.  We all know this is only the starter and the main course is scheduled for ~21st Jan or there abouts.  But we comment on the models in that context.  Certainly it's good compared with GFS 6z at that timescale.   Furthermore, these sliding lows and faint height rises you disparagingly refer to could deliver a lot more snow in this setup to some than a massive high latitude block.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Dare I say that it may still drain the lobe from Canada.....eventually

gfsnh-0-216.png

Edit. And it's going to end up the same as previous run with a chunk of residual Vortex over us

gfsnh-0-240.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So colder air looks set (give or take the usual inter-run/-model variation) to arrive by the back-end of Day 8? It's what happens next that's the interesting bit:

image.thumb.png.e50f3fb3d9938def9a31f49e2eb18564.png

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

That may be the case if the cold was on its way out at 144, but quite the opposite its on its way in.

So at that point (144) should that be the only event on offer then sure its poor, however it would the beginning... The GEM backs this up by a wedge a la 2013 just 48 hours later.

So is it a fair representation - no not really when you consider the overall evolution-

Although Adding the 'regional' perspective its obviously better for the Eastern part of the UK - as opposed to Ireland where the winter thus far has been very poor....

I freely admit i only really trust model output up to 5 or 6 days and that 'trust' is about 60% on a reliability index. Beyond 5 or 6 days too many forecast changes can occur esp for our little islands next to the Atlantic. I still reck the AZH will influence (from afar) shunting/keeping the deep cold to our East (beyond a week from now).

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