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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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33 minutes ago, kumquat said:

I need tight isobar to translate. 😄

Try here 

 

;)

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6 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

2 m 

.2 and 6 in old money

 

 

Edited by snowbob
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GFS 18z ens are great. Look in tandem with the ecm ens which is always a good sign

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GFS 18z disappointing to say the least, apart from some brief colder air it seems to be dominated by mild air in southern, western and especially south western areas next week with temperatures once again up to 12C Sunday afternoon like last weekend here on the south coast of Wales. Problem is all this frequent relatively mild air is keeping the sea temperatures up which may actually hinder our snow chances 😏

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Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts
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1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Is anyone expecting much next week?

21st onwards is the focus. 10/11 days away yet. 

I do hope we are not saying the same thing come Monday lol.

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20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I do hope we are not saying the same thing come Monday lol.

Don’t worry, we have until mid March!

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44 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Yeah I know we’ve spent what feels like an eternity anticipating that, but it’s actually been within the known uncertainty limit; back in mid-Dec I was talking by mid-Jan with luck. We didn’t get that luck (MJO timing better relative to SSW) but this next time around, it’s clear that we don’t need to be lucky - just not very unlucky! 

It seems like an age, but watching the warming count down from t384 (16 days) to boxing day and then the expected 2 to 3 week lag, it's quite amazing how the timing has stuck mainly to expected timeframes. My old uni mates who I met on 9th Dec and mentioned GPs predicted xmas warming and after effects are blown away by search early predictions, so thanks team for another coup, much like last SSW.

Please dont throw yoke on my cheeks now models 🤐

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Latest 18z ensembles, still trendin g down

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47 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

GFS 18z disappointing to say the least, apart from some brief colder air it seems to be dominated by mild air in southern, western and especially south western areas next week with temperatures once again up to 12C Sunday afternoon like last weekend here on the south coast of Wales. Problem is all this frequent relatively mild air is keeping the sea temperatures up which may actually hinder our snow chances 😏

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Excellent post. The trouble is, SSTs are no longer the media darling, with too many hung up on higher level warming that is more dark arts than dark, snowy winter arvos...

It's gotten lost in the frenzy of posts, but someone boldly mentioned earlier that the westerly phasing of the QBO was no longer relevant...declare that at your peril.

We still have a strong westerly signal - not overly progressive, and not quite zonal, but it ain't a classic - NAO situation - interim cold messy polar maritime air aside, I'd be expecting to see a stronger, more consistent signal by now in the outer reaches. 

I think it is highly likely that we will see the wind veer round to a N/NW component imminently, and all the russian roulette that brings, but this cannot be considered an odds on precursor to a more sustained N/NE flow down the line. Anyone predicting that at this time is being model naive, especially with Mr omnipresent aka AZH in close situ. Many of us have been on NWP patrol since the early 00s so should be long enough in the tooth to realise the dangers in trying to second guess the longer range output.

Not sayin' it won't happen, but let's keep a reasoned perspective here. 

 

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2 hours ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Excellent post. The trouble is, SSTs are no longer the media darling, with too many hung up on higher level warming that is more dark arts than dark, snowy winter arvos...

It's gotten lost in the frenzy of posts, but someone boldly mentioned earlier that the westerly phasing of the QBO was no longer relevant...declare that at your peril.

We still have a strong westerly signal - not overly progressive, and not quite zonal, but it ain't a classic - NAO situation - interim cold messy polar maritime air aside, I'd be expecting to see a stronger, more consistent signal by now in the outer reaches. 

I think it is highly likely that we will see the wind veer round to a N/NW component imminently, and all the russian roulette that brings, but this cannot be considered an odds on precursor to a more sustained N/NE flow down the line. Anyone predicting that at this time is being model naive, especially with Mr omnipresent aka AZH in close situ. Many of us have been on NWP patrol since the early 00s so should be long enough in the tooth to realise the dangers in trying to second guess the longer range output.

Not sayin' it won't happen, but let's keep a reasoned perspective here. 

 

Overthinking it. All NWP and TC lead to cold. Perhaps for those of us in the SW or West coast of Ireland, we're marginal. But we're used to that.

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he just contradicted his post anyway saying don’t second guess the longer ranger output,then basically writes off the chance of much colder weather by 2nd guessing the longer ranger output 🤣

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Cracking ICON / UKMO !!!

GFS hot on the heels as well at day 6-7 - just slightly flatter but can correct-

Best start to the day in a while ...

Easton Luna boys = Ian Brown ?

Thought that    still up waiting for a troublesome  older son  but the ukmo is lovely   

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9 minutes ago, jules216 said:

i wouldn't dismiss the posts that urge caution.I know it doesn't win the popularity contests, but looking a NWP and scatter in NAO region,how can we be sure whats in store for UK/IE.  http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=252

GEFS mildest I've seen them for a while towards the end- mean rising at/above -2 in southern parts. 

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No Greenland HP signal there...

Look at that cold wave over the pond!

Edited by CreweCold
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29 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GEFS mildest I've seen them for a while towards the end- mean rising at/above -2 in southern parts. 

 

No Greenland HP signal there...

Look at that cold wave over the pond!

I was relieved to see IDO hadn't posted but the GEFS mean is a tad underwhelming at 384 but the graph still looks decent though.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I was relieved to see IDO hadn't posted but the GEFS are a tad underwhelming at 384 but the graph still looks decent though.

It still looks complicated around day 5-7, I still think that needs resolved before we know where it’s going afterwards. That low (possible slider) is being modelled in so many ways.

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

It still looks complicated around day 5-7, I still think that needs resolved before we know where it’s going afterwards. That low (possible slider) is being modelled in so many ways.

True but was thinking and hoping that we were past the point of no return now and all roads lead to the same outcome of a cold d10-15 but hope we can get a greeny or griceland high after that.

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