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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

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I have posted on a number of occasions a number of consecutive CFS runs for the next month to show what that model is showing.  Last time I posted the charts for February were generally for pressure anomalies for a negative AO, and expected it might be similar now, well it is a -AO, but it is different....

As I've said before no point looking at one run, here's the last 8 Z500 anomalies for February:

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And it's from this point I will need some help from experienced members because I haven't seen this before, please...is this a signal for a totally blocked pattern with wave number 3 or even 4?  The runs don't all look exactly the same, but there are similarities between them. Could be barking up wrong tree here,  anyone care to express opinion on what these runs are suggesting about February?

any road, the 12z from the 9th (7th chart) looks like the Holy Grail! 

Edited by Mike Poole
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interesting that as a result of the uppers being so frigidly cold exiting Canada, we actually benefit from them having just enough umph left in them to give snow. Usually only seen in late feb/March due to the Atlantic being at its coldest. This then helps to generate the cold pool over Europe, which comes to our aid as modelled! 

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Hello Folks... Big changes in our weather ,the Atlantic comes in but as I said a few days ago , an undulating Jetstream will have the computer models screaming and kicking and shouting, as to how much we can tap into deep cold.  As far as Im concerned the trend from the models is from cold from the Northwest or North , in the next ten days, Potential for loads of snow for SOME!!!

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10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 anyone care to express opinion on what these runs are suggesting about February?

It’s suggesting it doesn’t have a clue 🤷🏻‍♂️

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6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s suggesting it doesn’t have a clue 🤷🏻‍♂️

Yes. Far too much variation between outputs for a model that is supposed to be forecasting at a climatic level. 

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM mean and Op reasonably close until around the 18th then it's a clear outlier towards D9

london_ecmsd850.thumb.png.32d88ee4cd8b1d0bf11db12d09746cd7.png

Warm outlier but cold for de bilt?

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2 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

Yes. Far too much variation between outputs for a model that is supposed to be forecasting at a climatic level. 

With how the models have coped with this month im not suprised.

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16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s suggesting it doesn’t have a clue 🤷🏻‍♂️

Griceland high for me, although i think it might become more scandi over time.

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7 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

With how the models have coped with this month im not suprised.

Shorter range models, absolutely, but that's expected. However, given all the background signals you'd expect a longer range model to perform better in highlighting forecast anomalies. Then again, I guess the CFS is simply a shirt range model that forecasts out to a ridiculous range?

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14 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Warm outlier but cold for de bilt?

image.thumb.png.9873fddf60b2251ff7850bc661783941.png

The very cold run is the control (and thats the extended ens suit)  the op is cold at the surface for deblit because of the high pressure holding to the east on the EC op out to day 10 (though there is a slight uptick lurking behind the text towards days 9/10)

Edited by chris55

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GFS 12z has some tightly packed isobars in western & southwestern UK & Ireland by the end of next week, SW gales initially but the potential for severe W or NW gales as the centre of a low moves southeastwards from Ireland across into Wales then over to the SE coast of England taking the strong winds with it. A lot different to the past 2-3 weeks that's for sure! 

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Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts
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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles watch 12Z

 

By D13 (24 January):

32 runs clearly cold enough for snow for most of UK

9 runs not cold enough 

10 runs I couldn't call

 

By D15 (26 January):

29 runs clearly cold enough for snow

14 runs not cold enough 

8 runs I couldn't call

 

I also note the mean 850s for London now goes below minus 6C for a couple of days around 24th

 

So once again, another ensemble set, another increase in the cold. 

 

Only problem is the drop off in cold runs by day 15, was hoping to see an increase.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only problem is the drop off in cold runs by day 15, was hoping to see an increase.

As per Fergies tweet, this could be due to some short-lived milder interludes between increasingly cold spells?

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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

As per Fergies tweet, this could be due to some short-lived milder interludes between increasingly cold spells?

Or the fact it is 15 days away

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3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Or the fact it is 15 days away

Exactly, would rather have short term cold upgrades than long term upgrades simply because it's more reliable and this season we have seen a few short term upgrades for the cold, so wouldn't worry about it.

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only problem is the drop off in cold runs by day 15, was hoping to see an increase.

Mean uppers back to between minus 5 and minus 6 by D15 

but like last night I'll add the caveat that my posts are purely my subjective opinion - I don't think there was much in it between D13 and D15 really 🙂

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Mean uppers back to between minus 5 and minus 6 by D15 

but like last night I'll add the caveat that my posts are purely my subjective opinion - I don't think there was much in it between D13 and D15 really 🙂

In your opinion will the graph on weathercast be an upgrade on th 0z or a downgrade?

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Just recalling 23rd of the month from the 00z eps mean from this morning where I posted the east coast chart 

checking out the thicknesses on the noon eps issue and I get 522 dam as the mean for wed 23rd (slp 1000mb) 

thats pretty amazing at this range 

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Shift west of the slider on gfs 18z

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I dont often say it but based on the UKMO raw 12z & the GFS 18z this feels about the ballpark track for the low...

Snow for some along the Scottish border - then sinking south-

C9B49118-5255-42A0-B6CC-82BD81796BEF.thumb.png.969389b2fadee644150e3aa7508047d2.png

 

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I dont often say it but based on the UKMO raw 12z & the GFS 18z this feels about the ballpark track for the low...

Snow for some along the Scottish border - then sinking south-

C9B49118-5255-42A0-B6CC-82BD81796BEF.thumb.png.969389b2fadee644150e3aa7508047d2.png

 

Think it will be further west and south steve!!

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18Z shaping up nicely .

@168

Backdoor easterly incoming?

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