Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Mike Poole]

On to the pub run, here T198, anyone else think the PV looks like a purple version of Scrappy Doo?

Not an ideal run so far, but amplification there, and an incursion from the Pacific side too, a few charts down the line we could be seeing good things...

[Norrance]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

More likely for high pressure to dominate though for Scotland MS, most of the snaw looks set for further south to me.

That is exactly what was said last year before the Beast from the East and look what happened.

[Nick F]

Impressive z500 and temp anomalies from the EC weeklies week’s 3 and 4, given the lead time caution required, but certainly feasible with the likely slower trop response to the reversal propagating down from the strat later this month as highlighted by GFS earlier today. 

Seems worlds away from the z500 pattern over the northern hemisphere in 7 days time looking at 18z GFS (above), but as we’ve seen with previous SSWs the trop pattern can quickly flip!

[karlos1983]

My days! Check out that high pressure, quite the link up 

[weirpig]

264h   here she goes?

[Ice Day]

Looks like lift off at 276....

Edit - Weirpig beat me to it!!!

Edited January 7, 2019 by Ice Day

[Mike Poole]

And so the fun starts, pub run T276:

Both of you beat me to it!  Lol!

Edited January 7, 2019 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

Clusters are back!!!!!!!!!!

The two main options post T300 have a growing Mid Atlantic ridge edging east with sceuro trough OR a wedge dropping into Greenland from the arctic which will sink the trough to our se by day 16 as it meets the growing Atlantic ridge  .... 20% third option would get there by day 18 

good end to the day ......

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, PsychedelicTony said:

Everywhere got buried!

This will do before the main course arrives.

[Mike Poole]

T324:

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

264h   here she goes?

inside 300h as well things really starting to come together now. i expect more and more upgrades over the next few days. in fact im so happy im off to watch "The Day After Tomorrow".. research for survival skills to get me thru to the end of winter.

[Mapantz]

Just a gentle reminder that this thread has now become solely model discussion. Model chat/banter/ramps/moans is now here

Thanks.

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Clusters are back!!!!!!!!!!

The two main options post T300 have a growing Mid Atlantic ridge edging east with sceuro trough OR a wedge dropping into Greenland from the arctic which will sink the trough to our se by day 16 as it meets the growing Atlantic ridge  .... 20% third option would get there by day 18 

good end to the day ......

And here's the evidence

Something definitely going on towards Greenland there. 

[bluearmy]

Just looked at weeks five and six - the trough back nw across the uk ......  jeez, what a run ........

[Scandinavian High.]

Second half January U.K. Could be buried in snow also

 severe cold get ready guys...

[Tim Bland]

Just been watching The Weather Chanel and they mentioned that due to the government shutdown NOAA May have data assimilation issues over the next few days which could effect the GFS...would be Sod’s law for this to happen. Now! 

[Nick F]

Interesting article in the Washington Post suggesting that GFS performance is being affected by US government shutdown because it’s not being maintained because of employees on furlough:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.189acfbd0823

not sure if I believe the claims or whether the GFS model output would be really that affected given it’s probably mostly automated and fed data from around the world. Fake news?

Back to the 18z, as with recent runs, signal increasing for cold zonality at times through next week, thanks to low heights and colder T850s moving from the west, would favour northern hill snow and perhaps lower levels of Scotland at times. Cold rain for the rest of us. No signs of pattern flip this run.

 

[shaky]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just looked at weeks five and six - the trough back nw across the uk ......  jeez, what a run ........

That would be 4 weeks of severe cold and snow!!aint seen that happen for long time!!

[East801]

And if by magic post the 20th is looking very rosey....I smell a big shift in the ensembles coming up

 

A

[Glacier Point]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Interesting article in the Washington Post suggesting that GFS performance is being affected by US government shutdown because it’s not being maintained because of employees on furlough:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.189acfbd0823

not sure if I believe the claims or whether the GFS model output would be really that affected given it’s probably mostly automated and fed data from around the world. Fake news?

Back to the 18z, as with recent runs, signal increasing for cold zonality at times through next week, thanks to low heights and colder T850s moving from the west, would favour northern hill snow and perhaps lower levels of Scotland at times. Cold rain for the rest of us. No signs of pattern flip this run.

 

Look again Nick. STJ becoming evident across N Atlantic with split flow and ridge signal off the Eastern US

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Just been watching The Weather Chanel and they mentioned that due to the government shutdown NOAA May have data assimilation issues over the next few days which could effect the GFS...would be Sod’s law for this to happen. Now! 

Not sure whether to break out the champagne or reach for the handkerchief  

I think in this situation the more models the better.... but still

Edited January 7, 2019 by karlos1983

[Froze were the Days]

38 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Oh I thought that was the latest . My fault . Thought there had been a few cfs runs posted lately showing winter ?? 

Well a bit more in the way of 'blocking' over some recent runs and one or two slider type scenario's but that's the first decent easterly I've seen in the 1 month runs for some time...but something to keep an eye on over the next day or so. 

[weirpig]

A little later  but the control seems to be going the same way  

Edited January 7, 2019 by weirpig

[Purga]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Is it the EC46 update tonight feb ?? 

Yes and EC46 is great if you like cold, that's for sure!

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, weirpig said:

A little later  but the control seems to be going the same way  

WOW !!!  locked in and brutal.