Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Weathizard]

Intruigingly more amplified with the core of the heights much further west, this is only four days out.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Is it the EC46 update tonight feb ?? 

Yes - its Monday and Thursday.

[Bullseye]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - its Monday and Thursday.

Quite consistent now with 21st onwards as sign of change 

[feb1991blizzard]

OH YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

[feb1991blizzard]

 

[snowking]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Things are starting to fall into place then perhaps as we look towards the last third of January. A good days model watching followed up by this ️

good find @Sweatyman

Does anyone have a link to these? (Thanks in advanc!)

In any case, the first glances at the latest EC46 look consistent with the previous update. It’s a shame we couldn’t see a quicker trop response, but the slower one certainly looks pretty promising

[Bullseye]

2 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Quite consistent now with 21st onwards as sign of change 

Hope this works (please let me know).

This was week 3 from last run - considerable stronger signal for Europe and U.S on tonight's run. 

[Bartlett High]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

OH YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

?

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

A quick explanation would help many of us.

[karlos1983]

Just now, snowking said:

Does anyone have a link to these? (Thanks in advanc!)

In any case, the first glances at the latest EC46 look consistent with the previous update. It’s a shame we couldn’t see a quicker trop response, but the slower one certainly looks pretty promising

It certainly does look promising! 

Not sure about the link for these though. @Sweatyman posted them. 

[karlos1983]

12 minutes ago, More Snow said:

A quick explanation would help many of us.

Above average Heights from Atlantic up to Greenland. Below average heights to the E/NE.

Very cold N/NE flow 

Do not head out in shorts and T-shirts! ️️️

AO and NAO tank -ve 

Edited January 7, 2019 by karlos1983

[shaky]

That looks like severe cold on the ecm for 2nd half of janaury for uk and the whole of europe lol!!surely cant go tits up now can it!!!last few updates have all been the same!!this update is probably the best!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, More Snow said:

A quick explanation would help many of us.

Its a stonker - There must be a huge cluster which show the threat of snow events in week 3 and getting even more interesting with the possibility of deep cold week 4, and if i had to put money on week 5 (i cant see it) based on the background signals, i would suggest cold continuing and getting even more brutal.

[Guest]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Heights from Atlantic up to Greenland.

N/NE flow 

That will do for me. thanks, im assuming that means we all get to have some fun in the Snaw then?

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, More Snow said:

A quick explanation would help many of us.

Heights over scandi  winds from a easterly source   Edit    sorry already been said

Edited January 7, 2019 by weirpig

[shaky]

Its not a matter of if but more like a matter of when we gona see these brutal freeze up charts appear according to the 46 dayer!!

[Sweatyman]

6 minutes ago, snowking said:

Does anyone have a link to these? (Thanks in advanc!)

In any case, the first glances at the latest EC46 look consistent with the previous update. It’s a shame we couldn’t see a quicker trop response, but the slower one certainly looks pretty promising

dont have a link sorry. Found them earlier rummaging around somewhere. Sorry cant be more helpful

[Guest]

Thanks all, been a long stressful day here and just couldn't work it out, mind went blank.  things sure do seem to have started turning in our favour, i fully expect more upgrades in the coming days and i do hope we can all kick back relax and watch it all tick down to Snaw days a plenty.

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Well to say I’m devastated is an understatement . I loved the hunt for cold and it’s gone . 

Moving on and maybe the cfs is starting to smell the coffee . Been a good few runs lately . 

So your not showing the CFS 12z then? which just shows LP piling over the country...the above is about the only time I've seen the CFS show a decent easterly on any 1 month run over the last fortnight or so.

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its not a matter of if but more like a matter of when we gona see these brutal freeze up charts appear according to the 46 dayer!!

Let’s see these on operational outputs before we run away with ourselves. But certainly looking good! 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

 

5 minutes ago, More Snow said:

A quick explanation would help many of us.

 

2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

That will do for me. thanks, im assuming that means we all get to have some fun in the Snaw then?

looking at those above average height anomalies = higher pressure in the Arctic / Greenland / Atlantic and lower heights / pressure centered to the south of the UK = possibly something akin to Nov / Dec 2010 type pattern (another comparison to keep an eye on in the next few days / weeks, and again I am not suggesting something of this severity just that it will be among the possibilities if the heights end up in the correct positions)

 

[bluearmy]

Those 46 frames look pretty convincing...... week 3 onset ..... excellent ..... wonder if we will see Exeter change their wording again tomorrow ..... will see the daily frames when I get up to see how those means are made up ..... mobile or not ..... the gefs and gems have the same mean but they have plenty of spread ....

[Sweatyman]

to who was asking, i found on this site 

[ICE COLD]

12 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

So your not showing the CFS 12z then? which just shows LP piling over the country...the above is about the only time I've seen the CFS show a decent easterly on any 1 month run over the last fortnight or so.

Oh I thought that was the latest . My fault . Thought there had been a few cfs runs posted lately showing winter ?? 

Edited January 7, 2019 by ICE COLD
Spelling

[Johnp]

9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its not a matter of if but more like a matter of when we gona see these brutal freeze up charts appear according to the 46 dayer!!

I'll believe it when the charts start appearing at t+48.  Even then I'll be behind the sofa.