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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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The GEFS 6z mean looks generally rather cold and changeable / unsettled throughout, some less cold interludes but also potential for some very cold weather, especially further north. There would be at least some sleet and snow and not just on northern hills but the highest risk would be with elevation and further north..also frosts and icy patches aplenty..a wintry update just released too!!😉👍❄️

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2 hours ago, winterof79 said:

Yes I would guess the " Snow anywhere" may make a reappearance

Nice to move back towards the col theme again on the 6Z etc calm a few 

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1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

If you go through this thread you will find dozens and dozens of great GEFS and individual GEFS and none of them have come to pass.

What we need to see is consistency in the ops runs in FI pointing to "belters".

So???

The point is they are there , there have also been some very mild ones and the same can be said 

 

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1 hour ago, snowangel32 said:

Ironically Met said rain for Fri here now it says snow. Just goes to show that no one has a clue until that storm in the US is resolved. OOZ were disappointing but really only slight changes make big differences as the gfs 6z demonstrated with a notable shift west of the trough and the ridge. At least there's no way the second half of Winter can be as dull as the 1st. See I am thinking glass half full. Let's hope the afternoon runs brighten the mood again last nite was buzzing.

The whole pattern is one that will produce ‘surprise’ snowfalls and risks that appear at very short notice. Just unlikely to last long away from high ground.

Edited by MattStoke
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image.thumb.png.22b94c3ead5747bf38e4e0f4e1eef2b4.png

Looks quite mobile this morning with a cool zonal  flow. The snap shot indicates a transient  cold spell where the country is bathed in sub 528 for a short time. Let hope the models revert back to a more amplified setup latter on in the day.

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Well the GFS ensembles are even more all over the play than yesterdays GFS runs, from D6 onwards there's a spread over over 20c from the mildest to the coldest, so FI starts at D6, probably sooner. graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.69233e64fab71364c74faea3e913602a.gif

 

At the end of the day we don't need -10/-12c uppers for snowfall, which is what most of us are after, GFS still showing the snow event for next week, happy with that for now in this so far snowless winter (for 90% of us anyway).156-7UK.thumb.gif.a732b14c29a9f520808c7ec0ce9d464f.gif144-574UK.thumb.gif.39638c16ba69dd0b226e2fbe0cb36c2a.gif150-574UK.thumb.gif.0159b08062e17d828b7d409fb847c39a.gif156-574UK.thumb.gif.2b05d242171d069e4b98ed16497ba1d7.gifgfs-16-156.thumb.png.07fdb25852a2ad2bdb3ce14d2f29f3d2.png

Going forward to D7/8 still lots to get excited about, ECM and NAVGEM both looking cold. Overall I'm still very optimistic for a cold February and an easterly or north easterly.

 

ECM1-192.gif

navgemeu-0-180.png

ECE0-192.png

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13 minutes ago, snowflakey said:

image.thumb.png.22b94c3ead5747bf38e4e0f4e1eef2b4.png

Looks quite mobile this morning with a cool zonal  flow. The snap shot indicates a transient  cold spell where the country is bathed in sub 528 for a short time. Let hope the models revert back to a more amplified setup latter on in the day.

Hi Snowflake,  

That's a nice chart which highlights what I often say and that is the high pressure needs to migrate further north from that position and then tilt northeast .

When it's in its current position it just produce westerly or slight more northwesterly pattern which isn't good for us. 

Atlantic basically just rides over the top of the too far south high. 

 

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Off topic in that I'm not looking at chart specifics, but model wise, does this new IBM model run alongside existing models or is it a replacement for an existing older version?

https://venturebeat.com/2019/01/08/ibm-announces-high-precision-weather-model-new-quantum-computer-design-and-enhanced-project-debater/

Edited by BA Baracus
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Afternoon all 🙂

As we await the next instalment of the roller coaster, a thought or two from me as to where we might be going.

Last evening's ECM 12z got a lot of people very excited but this morning's offering more disappointing. The GFS 06Z OP once again promises bounty at the very end - the T+408 chart would be worth seeing while the NAVGEM 00Z output was well worth a look for cold fans.

The notion of "cold zonality" gets people agitated as it often leads to marginal set ups at low ground for snow. Yes, if you're up high and up north it usually delivers and it may be true some low ground will also get a covering but for the bulk of us in England and you'd better believe that's true of lowland East London, it's cold rain and unpleasant cold winds.

IF the trough digs south, we really need to see the heights respond to the NE but we continue to have upstream dramas. GFS 06Z Parallel maintained a strong PV right through firing off vigorous LP one after another but the Control drains away the PV letting a more amplified scenario evolve while the OP hints at the PV moving to the west also allowing amplification.and the resolution of that which is beyond my comprehension at this time.

As Johnny Nash said in 1972 "there are more questions than answers".

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The colder trend in the outputs showing for so long for around mid-month look to be on the money although i think we were hoping for deeper cold than currently showing.

 

559128473_ensemble-tt6-london(2).thumb.gif.84ba4b7b5fc7875b1d5b9e04d5f52072.gif

As it is the cold zonal pattern looks to be favoured for now with ongoing trough disruption heading se across the UK area around the ever present AH.This will bring transient injections of Arctic cold such as we see this week interspersed with some less cold interludes from the azores ridging.

It is frustrating though that we continue to wait for any consistent modeling of Arctic blocking even though the pv is weaker and stretched the space between the 2 main sectors at 500h Pa. is insufficient to allow more than Atlantic ridging.

Day 10 eps day 5/10


EDH1-120.thumb.gif.daf45c307981e4fe6fce808f2955f80c.gif1808306302_EDH1-240(2).thumb.gif.a26fbec23302169b91c456c8af333b1a.gif

Certainly some snowfall is likely further north and especially higher up and we cannot rule out some further south if we get an injection of Arctic air directly on a northerly/north easterly as any low on a favourable track heads south east with cold air to it's east being pulled into it's circulation.

The drawback is though it's still a mobile pattern and not yet a blocked cold outlook with deeper cold established which i feel many of us are still hoping for.

Just to finish the downwell of zonal wind reversal has been a protracted and far from smooth affair and this i an sure has caused NWP modeling to be so inconsistent.Developments to our desired setup then not necessarily off the table but for the time being we rely on a mobile cold but not deep cold pattern.

 

 

Edited by phil nw.
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iconeu-0-138.png?16-12

Icon has the first slider down the Irish sea, the second will either slide or head north east?

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Icon totally different with the way it handles the ESB low no separation what so ever now and runs along the base of the main low around Greenland.

iconnh-0-135.png

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

Icon totally different with the way it handles the ESB low no separation what so ever now and runs along the base of the main low around Greenland.

iconnh-0-135.png

Leading to a flat solution .....

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ICON flat as it could be: icon-0-180.thumb.png.bea33d2acc9726f5ac52e176355c49ec.png

Not a good trend...

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Leading to a flat solution .....

The quicker the models get to an agreement on this low the better, causing a lot of noise.

 

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Leading to a flat solution .....

As a pancake.

iconnh-0-180.png

icon-0-180 (1).png

Edited by booferking
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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

As a pancake.

iconnh-0-180.png

icon-0-180 (1).png

Couldn't ask for a worse start to the 12z really. I really can't see the UKMET being that much better in 20 minutes or so.

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Couldn't ask for a worse start to the 12z really. I really can't see the UKMET being that much better in 20 minutes or so.

Q Nirvana charts :oldrofl: If yesterday taught us anything, it should be to not make assumptions at the moment. It's pretty chaotic in the nwp terms at the minute

Edited by karlos1983
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Hideous start from the ICON, things can only get better from the start to the 12zs! If we STILL get a result like this from the SSW, background signals and starting point we’ve had I think a lot of people will give up on this winter! 

76E6AF8B-C5D9-4F68-9E06-D782DFCE240C.png

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