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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I'll be viewing the EC46 update later through the cracks of my fingers :ninja:

No question that the ICON is an improvement on it's 00z run.

06z v 00z

image.thumb.png.f5701f26ed730dc4f1aab576017a0618.pngimage.thumb.png.cdd0c629921d150423a7ccacc3356629.png

But really, it's now what happens after this that is of note. Time to sit back and see if we can get agreement at +120 before worrying too much about further down the road.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'll be viewing the EC46 update later through the cracks of my fingers :ninja:

No question that the ICON is an improvement on it's 00z run.

06z v 00z

image.thumb.png.f5701f26ed730dc4f1aab576017a0618.pngimage.thumb.png.cdd0c629921d150423a7ccacc3356629.png

But really, it's now what happens after this that is of note. Time to sit back and see if we can get agreement at +120 before worrying too much about further down the road.

Yes  very much the smaller picture  but the Icon does bring snow to parts of Wales and the Midlands  and slightly more south   from that slider

image.thumb.png.c9821f5b67e7b54c11d21c4f780a6018.png

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'll be viewing the EC46 update later through the cracks of my fingers :ninja:

 

 

I think baaed on what i have heard about the 0z eps, and the fact that we will be coming off a very high base in the last ec46 (10/10),i think we really need to temper our expectations, as long as it maintains a blocking signal of sorts for early feb.........

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
45 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

As I said over recent days , GFS cannot be totally discounted.  I believed that any heights over/near Scandi would be shallow and temporary 20-24 period...possibly the slider situation we see but wouldn’t lead to HLB as there would then be a PV displacement event with deep trough moving NW/SE around 24-31. So blending them together sees the way forward imo.

Strange winter this one, and relying on troughing on NW/SE axis to bring our cold has proven not helpful thus far...and I still can’t see any lasting HLB in the nearterm.  Let’s see if the trough really drives into Europe as that would bring plenty of wintryness with NE and E winds

BFTP

True Fred. And the bolded part is all anyone has ever said, re the GFS...A totally valid comment IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
4 minutes ago, knocker said:

This morning's ecm 50mb geopotential Ht chart has a familiar ring to it. Aleutian low, Alaskan ridge into high pressure over the Pole and two vortex lobes norther Canada and southern Europe. Oh my giddy aunt

 

Familiar in what respect ,if you don't mind me asking?

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

I suspect EC 46 will continue along the same lines...

Azores high has complicated things somewhat in the shorter term..

Mid term the signal is high pulled out west and the PV dropping towards the UK..

Im going to stick my neck out and suggest the honey pot charts will be 12z/00z ..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
4 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Familiar in what respect ,if you don't mind me asking?

Because it is similar to the 500mb charts in the troposphere which many may be more familiar with.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Azores high has complicated things somewhat in the shorter term..

 

It's been on its extended holiday near to Iberia for about 2 months now. Main 'spoiler' this Winter for UK?

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

06z GFS already has a better shape to the slow heading SE

image.thumb.png.c0674d4607bd8a8b0004c4e2f301e91f.png

Edited by karlos1983
meant low, but slow works... slider low, slow ;-)
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Bristle boy said:

It's been on its extended holiday near to Iberia for about 2 months now. Main 'spoiler' this Winter for UK?

Its been an utter pain..

Only my two cents but i feel it will be a long way from home soon...

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Im about to lose all credibility with gfs as its now beginning to slide the low at 96 hours!!ridiculous!

Its really only a transient feature tbh and its what comes threw the atlantic what dictates the way forward imo

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, frosty ground said:

Is there any real difference between the two except maybe a slight adjustment south?

Doesn't look like it to be honest. just a slight shift. But another shift on the 12z and that then looks a bigger shift when combined.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Is there any real difference between the two except maybe a slight adjustment south?

Very little. It’s a rain/sleet event at low levels.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Is there any real difference between the two except maybe a slight adjustment south?

To be honest no.   Still the GFS blows the low up compared to other models   the difference between the ICON 6z just gone and the GFS is stark.   

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Im about to lose all credibility with gfs as its now beginning to slide the low at 96 hours!!ridiculous!

It has become a non-issue as a trigger or driver of further low-pressure diving SE and it appears to have little chance of bringing snow to anywhere other than those favoured in Winter months. So of minimal impact sliding or not?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Not sure what relevance this slider has, is it going to deliver a dumping? no, it's about the ridge it leaves behind.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure what relevance this slider has, is it going to deliver a dumping? no, it's about the ridge it leaves behind.

I'm not sure what relevance the ridge behind it has either, the atlantic is coming over the top of the high and eventually the high will back of west, it's been sign posted to do that for a while.

The only question is could we hang on to colder air during the transition? The answer appears to be no for now.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Once the low leaves the esb at 120 hrs its always going to flatten any ridging.see what fi brings again!!!

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