Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

  This morning GFS still looks very good imby,with plenty of marginal snow events up to T240 which is as far as I’m looking. TBH I would take that over cold and dry given how bad winter’s been so far. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

A mobile situation with transient cool to cold snaps at least we are going to have more interesting weather to look at rather than deciding where the slug would jiggle to.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A brief look at the gfs following on from the short range. It tracks the low south east into the Netherlands through Saturday so quite a wet day, and then again building a ridge from the south west. This quickly comes under pressure as more fronts swing in from the west on Sunday bringing rain and strong winds to north western regions, with snow on the high ground. After that any attempt by the subtropical high to ridge is quickly squashed by the east bound energy leading to some very windy and wet conditions, Best left here I feel.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_28.thumb.png.4e3cab13007efdfbd8d7ebf83699202d.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_35.thumb.png.1b646b1b60487e740fad759080d86ea2.png

 

Edited by knocker
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

No agreement at 144 UKMO says slider, GFS still says no!

UKMO144

image.thumb.png.2968659fc457ecaa4a859392a32188e5.png

 

GFS144

image.thumb.png.5b4f73cd858af68d1915a94a1e73f3ca.png

 

Over to EC!

GEM also a slider..

image.thumb.png.8a11e904e42c2b7204397214fb1f171e.png

 

 

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
12 minutes ago, knocker said:

A brief look at the gfs following on from the short range. It tracks the low south east into the Netherlands through Saturday so quite a wet day, and then again building a ridge from the south west. This quickly comes under pressure as more fronts swing in from the west on Sunday bringing rain and strong winds to north western regions, with snow on the high ground. After that any attempt by the subtropical high to ridge is quickly squashed by the east bound energy leading to some very windy and wet conditions, Best left here I feel.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_28.thumb.png.4e3cab13007efdfbd8d7ebf83699202d.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_35.thumb.png.1b646b1b60487e740fad759080d86ea2.png

 

Wind and rain with hill snow in the North, sounds like a normal UK winter to me.

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
1 hour ago, Dave Kightley said:

GFS second go at a slider is probably worse... Crap run!  

 

could get interesting in FL though

How can it be a crap run when you haven't looked at the GEFS

GEFS has some beauties in , nothings changed 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC also a slider..

image.thumb.png.1f1eef335278c37b26f155161866a58c.png

As expected GFS looking very isolated this morning..

In the interests of balance of course GFS may trump the others, although thats a long shot IMHO..

Cant belive this still isn't resolved it also has huge ramifications into FI. Slide or not to slide that is the question. ECM is clean and slides beautifully.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Quelle surprise. This morning is still GFS v the rest of the world, regards the initial slider. 

It’s not beyond the realms of total fantasy that it has, somehow, got it right, but quite how anyone can steadfastly back the one model that would likely over blow that low anyway, is all a bit bizarre.

Edited by s4lancia
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Quelle surprise. This morning is still GFS v the rest of the world, regards the initial slider. 

It’s not beyond the realms of total fantasy that it has, somehow, got it right, but quite how anyone can steadfastly back the one model that would likely over blow that low anyway, is all a bit bizarre.

GFS bias known to blow up low pressure too only within T+36-72 to bring it back down.. Well that's what I usually see. 

Current FI 3 days? Not sure.. 

Edited by Surrey
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Ecm and Ukmo are not following the gfs this morning as some posters were adamant they would last night as the gfs models the Atlantic or whatever better than the other models they insisted. 

Have to wait for the next runs i guess till they bow down to the almighty gfs

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Dont know what to make of the ukmo!!dunno if anyone gets any snow out of that slider at all!!and gfs is still stubborn!!all the yummy charts back into fi again and everything flat!!give us a break!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Just can't see why there is so much confidence going around for a Greenland high? Let's be honest, if there weren't lowish heights over Europe this ecm would be about as flat as you could get!

 

ECMOPNH00_192_1.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Not much consistency from the models this morning at 144t. All struggling to find a route to real cold. Again the UKMO consistent with a trough disruption to Western Britain but even this run mixes the air mass to readily and would be borderline to produce snowfall with the predicted 850mb temps, however this looks the best model going past 144t .

C

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Dont know what to make of the ukmo!!dunno if anyone gets any snow out of that slider at all!!and gfs is still stubborn!!all the yummy charts back into fi again and everything flat!!give us a break!!

UKMO looks like cold rain for my part of the planet as progged by the Irish met this morning from Thursday through the weekend. I’m still confident of favorable HLB setting up down the line. Is it behind door number 1, perhaps it’s door number 3?!.....find out after the break

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

A bit better by day 10...again but showing little resemblance to yesterday's day 10 chart so hardly consistent. A hint that if we are to see greenie high it may drop from the arctic as opposed ridge from the Atlantic?

 

ECMOPEU00_240_1-9.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ec ops envelope just go a bit wider on the trough

whilst it remains more bullish than other nwp on the slp day 8, I owe it an apology for completely dissing it’s Saturday am output 

And if ukmo is right day 6 off the esb with the slower system following then ec will be too amplified with the mid range ridging and end up too far to the east with the pattern 

i assume the ncep output is a similar issue 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Not much consistency from the models this morning at 144t. All struggling to find a route to real cold. Again the UKMO consistent with a trough disruption to Western Britain but even this run mixes the air mass to readily and would be borderline to produce snowfall with the predicted 850mb temps, however this looks the best model going past 144t .

C

Anyway, a bit of winter to look forward to in the shorter term . Thursday morning showing the possibility of some snowfall on higher ground from a trough or shallow low in the Arctic flow.

C

winteroverview_20190114_00_078.jpg

fax72s.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec ops envelope just go a bit wider on the trough

whilst it remains more bullish than other nwp on the slp day 8, I owe it an apology for completely dissing it’s Saturday am output 

And if ukmo is right day 6 off the esb with the slower system following then ec will be too amplified with the mid range ridging and end up too far to the east with the pattern 

i assume the ncep output is a similar issue 

Is this a good thing or bad thing for us

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...