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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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20 minutes ago, nwextremeweather said:

Does this last sentence not highlight the problem with the current scenarios?

Fortunately the upcoming encroachment of cold in our sights, although not looking to be characterised by particularly deep cold, could be be cold enough at the surface, given slack flow and little mixing, to bring a snowfall risk when Atlantic fronts bump in to it. Snowfall risk from convection less likely initially, more frontal for now, but may change if we get a strong Atlantic/Greenland high build or Scandinavia high to bring in deeper cold. But no concrete signs in high res yet of deeper cold, just in the ensemble guidance for now.

Edited by Nick F
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3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

GFSP out to 222. Flat as a hedgehog caught napping in the fast lane of the M25.

GEFS are largely meh, albeit there are two or three really good ones deep in FI land. If there is a deep freeze coming I sure ain't seeing it. 

 

 

 

 

laughed out loud thanks 😄

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We don't want that yellow line at the end to continue going up on the next run though.

It’s barely going up.. maybe half a C tops, probably skewed by the unlikely 2 or 3 mild rebels of the set. 

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9 minutes ago, Jason M said:

GFSP out to 222. Flat as a hedgehog caught napping in the fast lane of the M25.

GEFS are largely meh, albeit there are two or three really good ones deep in FI land. If there is a deep freeze coming I sure ain't seeing it. 

 

 

 

 

Yup very flat GFSP indeed... all hail the SSW..., it's not living up to any hype so far (as far as NH synoptics go). Either that or its incredibly slow to downwell to the surface. The PV looks remarkably well organised on the GFSP. Maybe its just a blip... the 06z had a fair bit of blocking to the NW.

If the PV becomes as well organised as below we will be relying on the Scandi high to deliver the goods... if that doesn't happen we will probably get a very positive NAO phase setting up.

image.thumb.png.1b1e432858e3d64a9dbe3acda588c002.png

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Hi all can someone explain to me why there is so many posts on here down beat tonight I'm confused ..

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

It’s barely going up.. maybe half a C tops, probably skewed by the unlikely 2 or 3 mild rebels of the set. 

we either need to see it going down though, or if it stays the same, a good sized cluster falling like a stone, thus indicating a block delivering those brutal uppers.

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6 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup very flat GFSP indeed... all hail the SSW..., it's not living up to any hype so far (as far as NH synoptics go). Either that or its incredibly slow to downwell to the surface. The PV looks remarkably well organised on the GFSP. Maybe its just a blip... the 06z had a fair bit of blocking to the NW.

If the PV becomes as well organised as below we will be relying on the Scandi high to deliver the goods... if that doesn't happen we will probably get a very positive NAO phase setting up.

image.thumb.png.1b1e432858e3d64a9dbe3acda588c002.png

yep its a strange one..everything is in place you would think to deliver some very cold synoptics..solar minimum, SSW early doors and faltering El Nino but its a real struggle to get there.

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Saying the GFSP output is flat, but it still shows systems moving north west to south east, with plenty of cold air in the mix.

Not that output at that range really matters anyway. Just that the aforementioned trends are still there, rather than a mild west/south west flow.

The outlook hasn’t changed but I think people are looking too much for deeply cold and blocked output which isn’t going to be the case. Not for a little while anyway.

Edited by MattStoke

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6 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Hi all can someone explain to me why there is so many posts on here down beat tonight I'm confused ..

When you’ve been on here a long time you realise this place is always the same, it will never change and to be honest I’m glad it won’t! I’m sure the mods aren’t but it’s part and parcel of the UK winter cold chase, toys going out the pram/arguments ect

Put simply there’s been some wobbles, the slider track isn’t nailed down and is looking likely to be rain for quite a few, thereafter there has been a trend today to send a fragment of vortex barrelling across the Atlantic towards us in the medium range, although view this as highly unlikely it may actually help us if it drains some of the purple blob you see over Canada currently. Not to worry, my advice is take this thread with a large pinch of salt just like the models.

I think the models are struggling to process things, there’s a lot of things going on in the atmosphere that aren’t normal and thus there will be volatility in the output.

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No one has really mentioned that the models could be struggling to get a grip on the SSW.. I know last year the models had major wobbles due to the teleconnections. Could this be the case somewhat? I know things certainly seem “better” this time round. 

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Goodnight all, had a great day reading everyone's comments in hear tonight. I'm sure things will look a lot better in the morning, and the slider will improve the outlook.

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I no I should not post this in here but long range forecast saying locked in cold next weekend and following week very wintery i expect more changes within models upgrade the cold very soon .

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8 minutes ago, khodds said:

No one has really mentioned that the models could be struggling to get a grip on the SSW.. I know last year the models had major wobbles due to the teleconnections. Could this be the case somewhat? I know things certainly seem “better” this time round. 

People also forget to mention the extreme MJO phase that coincided with the beast from the east earlier on this year. Could it be that the influence of the MJO was underrated and that evolution was credited to the SSW too much?

I think if the GFS OP and parallel show the kind of synoptics that can persist for a long period of time, a zonal westerly flow hence the lukewarm feeling in here this evening. Some people will dismiss the GFS outright but I urge caution as people were keenly dismissing it during November and December too yet those months were very mild. I've mentioned this before that I rate the ECM and UKMO are a bit better then the GFS but to outright dismiss the GFS is a rather extreme stance to take. If it showed awesome northern blocking synoptics it would be praised.

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ICON going for the EC/GFS blend I spoke of

image.thumb.png.226ecfcb53a3936b8f7bcc860728f99d.png

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You can clearly see the imprinted strat on the troposphere here and highlights my post from last night- vortices Canada and Scandi side, with weak split up the middle and suppressed Atlantic HP...For now...

image.thumb.png.1f5d0285e7e5ddfabc7da99f52a9d80f.png

5th Jan strat chart-

image.thumb.png.abd1f408be205a2fd72768c1fe11e050.png

16 day downwelling...

This was the situation on the 12th-

image.thumb.png.1676c30e05256826959bbdbed733b8a6.png

So we should see some Scandi HP charts soon enough

 

Edited by CreweCold
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UKMO looks OK but strange it updates from 92h hours and updates the 144h chart before the 24h one on Meteociel

Still updating but looks alot further east... Cold uppers are nearly gone at 120h.. 

Edited by Dave Kightley
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That second LP needs to head SE, with the jet continuing to head NW-SE. No interference from Atlantic HP wanted at this juncture

image.thumb.png.4010ac384e5dcab83ec2c65a2c12b5fe.png

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Good stuff from UKMO she sure is sliding.. GFS having none of it like 18Z much less shallow too need to keep AH retracted away from Iberia minor details sure do blow up in these situations.

58722FE8-BDAF-43E1-8FD1-D6A179AD447E.thumb.gif.2af047817957fcfe1e11a6e2e84d70ac.gifD1D42FA0-2E86-4FD6-B151-A469FB1ADC89.thumb.png.1c44bc37fc0b292e30d53a8e426ec7c8.png

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UKMO a tad disappointing for this weekend if you want snow.  To far east you would think.. 144h Everywhere but UK with cold uppers!

Edited by Dave Kightley
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10 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

UKMO looks OK but strange it updates from 92h hours and updates the 144h chart before the 24h one on Meteociel

Still updating but looks alot further east... Cold uppers are nearly gone at 120h.. 

Infinitely better than the GFS and ICON though...it keeps the jet favourably aligned with cold uppers encroaching from the NW

image.thumb.png.b4e02e452dc790307ff620f95050b95c.png

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That second LP needs to head SE, with the jet continuing to head NW-SE. No interference from Atlantic HP wanted at this juncture

image.thumb.png.4010ac384e5dcab83ec2c65a2c12b5fe.png

Yh i think a blend will be the final outcome as every model has its own strength and weakness. But they all still lead to cold after this week. Also look at the deep cold brewing all around us i think when the flood gates open we will see something memorable. Even if we get deep lows from the West i think it could still be snow infact i remember that a few years ago.

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