Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Is it? 

According to meteociel the UKMO is running at 1.25 and the GFS 1.0

[Mucka]

What is it?

Super storm or strong ridge. only GFS knows.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

That's just the output data they're using. The GFS actually runs at 13km approx, the met office global runs at 10km. 

Would explain why the charts we see on there do not look so detailed. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Is the gfs wrong!!!

it has been consistant with its modeling too

we cannot discount it if it is not showing what we want re:- cold and snow

lets leave the model slashing until the morning as there is no point in getting worked up over it.

[damianslaw]

Notable differences still between GFS and ECM/UKMO at the 6 days range - how often do we say this! Remember back to mid December when the GFS wanted to swing the atlantic in very quickly, UKMO/ECM not so, and every run from the GFS saw a backtrack to the UKMO/ECM evolution.. don't be surprised to see this happen again over the next few runs. The GFS seems to throw up four different scenarios on a loose theme every day - all at opposing ends.. at the 144hr timeframe onwards it seems, you never know where you are with it!

[kumquat]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

As I explained earlier though, it's not strange at all if you realise where the main vortices have set up post SSW. 

One centre over the Canadian sector and one over Scandinavia. It leaves HP nowhere to go for the time being, except for mid Atlantic at a suppressed latitude! 

or mid-atlantic at a decent-enough latitude with lows ejected from the Canada segment NW >SE enough for us to capitalise

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mucka said:

What is it?

Super storm or strong ridge. only GFS knows.

Yes but we're conflating near term synoptics and fantasy islands that chop and change on every model. 

The original point was related to the 96 hours juncture. 

[Weathizard]

At least it continues the trend of starting to drain that segment of vortex away from Canada, other than that... hilarious chart from the GFS, massive change from the 12z, couldn’t hit a barn door with a banjo 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Don’t confuse the chart resolution with the actual model resolution.  

Ukgm is 10km

gfs is around 15km 

Thanks for clearing that up as i was doing a bit if head scratching always thought it was superior resolution.

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well joking aside, its looking super  at 204..

At least it is showing signs of the azores migrating west.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, kumquat said:

or mid-atlantic at a decent-enough latitude with lows ejected from the Canada segment NW >SE enough for us to capitalise

That's the expectancy. However we shouldn't be shocked at all by the other outcome as it's just as feasible. 

Edited January 13, 2019 by CreweCold

[Met4Cast]

Double post

Edited January 13, 2019 by Daniel Smith

[Met4Cast]

Given GFS can’t agree on a low at T96hrs, probably not worth worrying too much about what it’s showing beyond that timeframe

Edited January 13, 2019 by Daniel Smith

[northwestsnow]

heavy SNOW showers moving into the NW DAY 10..

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is the gfs wrong!!!

it has been consistant with its modeling too

we cannot discount it if it is not showing what we want re:- cold and snow

lets leave the model slashing until the morning as there is no point in getting worked up over it.

Consistent? Did you mean ‘consistently inconsistent’?

18z vs 12z

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is the gfs wrong!!!

it has been consistant with its modeling too

we cannot discount it if it is not showing what we want re:- cold and snow

lets leave the model slashing until the morning as there is no point in getting worked up over it.

Yes it is wrong, that's a fact.

How can it be a fact?

Because when it is showing output that contradicts 100% we can guarantee that at least one of those output is wrong,

Whether it is right about the slider or not is slightly more difficult to answer but given it goes against all other output and it is currently throwing out output contrary to its last run then it would be crazy to take any of its output over the Euros.

And I am someone who will defends GFS, I honestly think there is an issue, perhaps data has somehow been affected by the shutdown. 

 

Edited January 13, 2019 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

LOL 18Z is SNOWMAGGEDON!!

Dont even know how to spell it lol..

[Ice Day]

Out to 240.... 

Now if that storm forms as shown, I will eat my own trousers with gravy!

[johnholmes]

18 minutes ago, matty40s said:

With the Trump shutdown, NOAA is operating on skeleton staffing, with Trumps denial of anything weather /climate related, I am suprised it is operating at all. The GFS will be lacking input of a normal level and this is probaby why it is fighting its own little corner. 

I expect the arpege to start showing some interesting charts soon, it certainly led the way along with the ICON last March.

Not what this link reports along with similar posts on the web

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/01/12/national-weather-service-forecasts-winter-snow-storm-government-shutdown/2558998002/

[Day_9]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is the gfs wrong!!!

it has been consistant with its modeling too

we cannot discount it if it is not showing what we want re:- cold and snow

lets leave the model slashing until the morning as there is no point in getting worked up over it.

Just a question like, is there anywhere you go to can look at say charts from last Sunday or even 240 back for today and see which ones actually verified 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

heavy SNOW showers moving into the NW DAY 10..

Problem is it lost the plot before D5 mate, so it’s extremely hard to see how that will verify! Nice to see but...  

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Out to 240.... 

Now if that storm forms as shown, I will eat my own trousers with gravy!

You could say that about ANY model output at day 10 in a high uncertainty scenario... 

Anyone expecting an op run of any modelling product to nail a pattern in a volatile atmospheric base state at day 10 is living in cloud cuckoo land to be frank. 

Edited January 13, 2019 by CreweCold

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Consistent? Did you mean ‘consistently inconsistent’?

18z vs 12z

I meant in the short range.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes it is wrong, that's a fact.

How can it be a fact?

Because when it is showing output that contradicts 100% we can guarantee that at least one of those output is wrong,

Whether it is right about the slider or not is slightly more difficult to answer but given it goes against all other output and it is currently throwing out output contrary to its last run then it would be crazy to take any of its output over the Euros.

And I am someone who will defends GFS, I honestly think there is an issue, perhaps data has somehow been affected by the shutdown. 

 

I meant to say in it's short range,re the slider.

[kold weather]

Jeez the 18z has gone off on one this time!

Whenever your seeing 930mbs low when other models are about 50mbs higher...nothing more needs to be said.

Looks like a synoptic outlier to me.