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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean becomes flatter but then we see a mid atlantic ridge and a trough to the NW with polar maritime air incoming.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Mean looks to be following the op- still Euro low pressure signal so no disaster, but it certainly is nothing like UKMO/GFS..

To a degree yes...still cold though

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

That mean looks ALOT closer to the 12z ECM operational then we would like to see!

Th biggest difference is the Azores high is back on the 12z ECM ensembles, suggesting the model is flattening the jet out again at least to some extent.

Not good news guys!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Just now, Hull snow said:

Why can’t we ever get cold very cold and snowy in the uk with no fuss always breaks down last min 

We did 2010. ECM not ideal but still will be below average and thankfully it's lala land that's jumping about.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Look on the plus side, the Det won’t be a cold outlier

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Regardless of how good or not the 18z GFS is nothing will be resolved tonight following that ECM run

It's supported closely by NAVGEM and somewhat though less so by ICON.

Could be a fundamental change or maybe not.

Just have to wait and see.

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

58BEF978-BCB6-4B03-BFE4-22AEA2EB0477.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean becomes flatter but then we see a mid atlantic ridge and a trough to the NW with polar maritime air incoming.

Yep that's certainly what the mean is hinting at, not going to liet, that's abit of a let down compared to some of the other output tonight from the other models.

However it still could end up looking ok down the line IF we do end up getting any co-operation from the Arctic high or the PV splits properly.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Outlier at the end quite clearly 

1B12CC9B-3F0F-42DC-96DE-13E809D3110E.thumb.png.c192cbe0ff9a4091867a127c39fecfa9.png

but straddles the mean for majority ?‍♂️.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Look on the plus side, the Det won’t be a cold outlier

Thats a relief,the mean still flatlining at -5 all the way,op an outlier.

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.f23c0660c8c83c087f73ceef98c18b8d.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, TomW said:

00z 2032172050_18_01.1900z.thumb.png.d60552350f7b508e6d30adf45448a71a.png

12z 1598466437_18_01.1912z.thumb.png.434096cf677152abb4a2bc323c98ec76.png

Looks ok to me!

Actually a better mean in the long term, to trend up like the 00z

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, karlos1983 said:

Outlier at the end quite clearly 

1B12CC9B-3F0F-42DC-96DE-13E809D3110E.thumb.png.c192cbe0ff9a4091867a127c39fecfa9.png

but straddles the mean for majority ?‍♂️.

Mean is about 1C warmer it seems.

However the mean does look suggestive of a NW airflow, so it won't be going mild any time, and could see some marginal events from such an airflow as well if it were to happen.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
1 minute ago, TomW said:

00z 2032172050_18_01.1900z.thumb.png.d60552350f7b508e6d30adf45448a71a.png

12z 1598466437_18_01.1912z.thumb.png.434096cf677152abb4a2bc323c98ec76.png

Looks ok to me!

So basically, we've had one from the bottom and one from the top.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Thats a relief,the mean still flatlining at -5 all the way,op an outlier.

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.f23c0660c8c83c087f73ceef98c18b8d.png

A lot more spread on the milder side than on the 0z, clearly a downgrade.

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Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Yes unfortunately the Ecm op and its ensemble suite has mixed out the Arctic high joining the high pressure Azores that lobe pulling Sw stopping a pressure join ...jet flattening the pattern to some degree...Seeing Ecm is the highest verification model according to the stats nerves will be creeping in. However I'm still confident of heavy snow events from battleground scenarios....I want snow!

I'd be more worried if the ukmo changes.  ive noticed in the past that on the run up to a good cold spell the models flip and change right upto the last minute... for some reason it was at the start of and during weekend when it happens the most... just my opinion.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

So let's just all relax shall we. It's a simple case a cold outlier this morning and and a warm outlier this evening 

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