Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolutely dyer - look at the shift east of the slider on a mean at only 90 hours - gutted - absolutely gutted!

Hope this is not another overreaction from you again!?!  ...we'll find out in due course

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolutely dyer - look at the shift east of the slider on a mean at only 90 hours - gutted - absolutely gutted!

GAME OVER  no offence feb, but I think you need to be a little less reactive and over emotional about things, respect your opinions but the over reactions get a little annoying! No offence intended of course. Mean still looks fine to me.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Feb have you not seen 126 above?Looks banging to me

I will need to see the while thing in meteociel NH format before giving my opinion - not dodging its (when have i ever backed down from a debate before?)   Just genuinely prefer meteociel.

[Chesil View]

Before we all start get to downhearted with a less than exciting ECM. It's worth noting that the Meto medium to longer term outlook is much more in line with what the GFS snowy runs have been showing than the ECM. Perhaps mogreps and Glosea are seeing more of a GFS outcome going forwards ...... Just a thought.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I will need to see the while thing in meteociel NH format before giving my opinion - not dodging its (when have i ever backed down from a debate before?)   Just genuinely prefer meteociel.

Fair enough

[O'Maille80]

This is why I don't understand the point of watching every model run. One bad run and people completely discount the previous 20? It's senseless.

Edited January 18, 2019 by O'Maille80

[mb018538]

There’s the folly of taking one good run as gospel. It’s all about trends, I don’t know how many times it has to be repeated on here for people to get it!

[Duane S.]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I will need to see the while thing in meteociel NH format before giving my opinion - not dodging its (when have i ever backed down from a debate before?)   Just genuinely prefer meteociel.

Haven't you just given your opinion, very clearly, above this?

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, O'Maille80 said:

This is why I don't understand the point of watching every model. One bad run and people completely discount the previous 20. It's senseless.

Normally I would agree, but at this particular time, the stakes are much higher, the prize being cross model agreement and pretty much certainty on the start of the cold spell.  ECM still calls that into question after the full run was seen, so some residual uncertainty now remains and, yes, we do need to see the next runs...

[Summer Sun]

12z ECM mean isn't out yet according to Matt Hugo so not sure if those charts above will be right or not

[The Eagle]

NAVGEM operational quite close to the ECM

So it certainly has support and will have support in the ECM ensembles as well.

Edited January 18, 2019 by The Eagle

[That ECM]

If the ecm is right then we will need to patient and thankfully we have loads of that in here let’s see how things look at 7.00 tomorrow morning. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, s4lancia said:

Haven't you just given your opinion, very clearly, above this?

Yes - that at 96 - the 12z mean is worse and i stand by that -doesn't mean that by 200 there won't be shed loads of flatliners on the graph.

[James Gold]

It’s that connection looking like happening on the mean that’s keeping me happy right now, taking that ecm with salt and looking forward to the grit salt next week

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

This is why I don't understand the point of watching every model run. One bad run and people completely discount the previous 20? It's senseless.

Just basing it on latest run, latest EC op suggests no freeze, perhaps snow chances Tue and Wed, then less cold

just so hope it is a duff run, and it's history after 00Z's

[Methuselah]

Well I'm not going to traumatise myself further by watching the 18Z ooze out; I am going to perform a simple wee experiment instead:

I'm going to obtain two sliders, four wedges, four building blocks, a toppler and snowball; these, I will then place inside one large envelope, get some kip, and see what's still within the envelope, come tomorrow morning.

Got to be better than agonising over whether this, or that, run is going to be smelling coffee - or not?

[feb1991blizzard]

Still stand by the fact that its a downgrade on the 0z mean - no pronounced Easterly with frigid uppers likely based on that suite - 0z most definitely was that option on the table.

[The Eagle]

168 mean

 

192

Edited January 18, 2019 by The Eagle

[Allseasons-Si]

The mean is ok at 144 peeps...RELAX.

at 240

Edited January 18, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T168, looks a less strong signal to me (much more uncertainty) but the mean has gone wholesale for a collapse at the 11th hour.

 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Roger J Smith]

The two North American models are clearly seeing less disruption of a blocking easterly from the Atlantic, and I could relate that to retrogression they have indicated over North America. Time will tell if that's the case. But the GEM is known to be the most progressive-biased model so if it can find an easterly solution, that goes against its bias. The storm leaving the eastern US and Canada on Sunday-Monday heads up towards south tip of Greenland where it splits, so much depends on whether it encounters the first stages of north-south ridge building and gets shunted northwest away from the action. 

[karlos1983]

I don’t think we can argue that actually the mean isn’t as good as his morning. But I would prefer to wait until I see it in graph format. Still cold all the way through however.

Edited January 18, 2019 by karlos1983

[Duane S.]

17/01 D8 12z mean

18/01 D7 12z mean

[northwestsnow]

Mean looks to be following the op- still Euro low pressure signal so no disaster, but it certainly is nothing like UKMO/GFS..

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still stand by the fact that its a downgrade on the 0z mean - no pronounced Easterly with frigid uppers likely based on that suite - 0z most definitely was that option on the table.

The mean isn't out yet.

 

edit: or wasn't when you posted that  

edit 2: or maybe it was I don't know any more 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Liima