Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

It's such a subtle difference on the ECM I'm not entirely sure we're going to be able to see it on the ensemble means

True Daniel, but on graph format, probably a different story

[CSC]

ECM proving as unreliable as my ex tonight..

18z GFS it is to calm the nerves...

[nick sussex]

This mornings ECM has the PV lobe transfer about 36 hours later . 

It makes a big difference to the set up early on.

[ITSY]

Just now, IDO said:

Looking at the GEFS, nine members (biggest cluster) support the cut-off low and flatten the pattern within an envelope, depending on how well the wedge combines with the Atlantic ridge pre-spoiler:

Another cluster is similar to the ECM 0z run. A cluster supporting the op but not great.

As far as the operationals go, it’s ECM/IKON/NAVGEM vs UKMO/GFS/FV3/JMA/GEM, 

Majority clusters so far only available for GEM and GEFS. For these it’s 60/40 in favour of cold for the GEM (albeit with milder clusters into low res) and 70/30 cold for GEFS. Let’s await the ENS next. 

We can and should be very excited if it’s cold you’re after - but with a dose of realism that it’s never a done deal on this island until we’re within T12, especially with Easterlies. Other options not to be discounted just yet...

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

It's such a subtle difference on the ECM I'm not entirely sure we're going to be able to see it on the ensemble means

If it looks similar to this at T144 are be so relived . Please be like this . 

[Met4Cast]

00z mean

12z mean

@ 90hrs 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Daniel Smith

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, booferking said:

Temperature charts will tell you out west what way the mean sits believe you me.

not always.

An example:

Loolk at the GFS operational at roughly 240hrs for the south of Engtland. Then look at the eCM op for south of England. Identical 850hpa temps and probably similar groiund value temps as well at that point...

Yet synoptically they are WORLDS apart.

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

00z mean

12z mean

@ 90hrs 

Is that looking ok or not ? 

[Met4Cast]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Is that looking ok or not ? 

I posted it hoping someone else would know 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Is that looking ok or not ? 

Looks fine to me, jets digging further south. I’m not sure how much use a Mean is at 90 hrs out though to be honest 

Edited January 18, 2019 by karlos1983

[nick sussex]

Thankfully this won’t be a long drawn out affair .

Given the timeframes involved at just day 4 we will know by the morning whether it’s a dodgy ECM run .

 

[Mark wheeler]

One from the Navgem 144 Hours

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

00z mean

12z mean

@ 90hrs 

Hard to say at this stage, I'd argue the fact that the upper low is stil la trough over Iceland is bad as it means it hasn't yet come away from the main PV lobe and thus trailing lower heights further east, but then again I suspect the UKMO doesn't look all that much different at this stage.

However there does seem to be some arctic support there so swings and roundabouts again.

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Is that looking ok or not ? 

I think not looks to me like it's more of an effort to link the ridge with the Arctic high?  But I may well be wrong here, I admit that.

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Thankfully this won’t be a long drawn out affair .

Given the timeframes involved at just day 4 we will know by the morning whether it’s a dodgy ECM run .

 

In truth we will probably know tonight with the 18Z runs. If they stay solid we should be fine.

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Is that looking ok or not ? 

It’s not quite as good as the channel of lower heights to the north west isn’t cut off earlier like the 0z suite, but it does get there.  Just looks slower to me.  I am expecting another decent EPS suite.

[Met4Cast]

126hrs

Seems to be connecting between the Atlantic ridge and Arctic high.. I think we're okay..

[chris55]

The euros tomorrow morning will be crucial!! 

And I don’t say that often.

if EC op backtracks and UKMO persists then we should be fine.

If tonight’s EC gathers momentum and support then it could be curtains, for the mid term anyway. Beyond this all options still available.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

00z mean

12z mean

@ 90hrs 

Absolutely dyer - look at the shift east of the slider on a mean at only 90 hours - gutted - absolutely gutted!

[booferking]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

not always.

An example:

Loolk at the GFS operational at roughly 240hrs for the south of Engtland. Then look at the eCM op for south of England. Identical 850hpa temps and probably similar groiund value temps as well at that point...

Yet synoptically they are WORLDS apart.

Trust me when yea have plus +2 +3 850s out in Ireland when they were -8 -9 850s this morning that will tell me all i need to know Atlantic driving are not.

Edited January 18, 2019 by booferking

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

126hrs

Seems to be connecting between the Atlantic ridge and Arctic high.. I think we're okay..

Phew, yes that does look a lot better, just another road to Rome in the mix, difficult to tell until we see the clusters.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolutely dyer - look at the shift east of the slider on a mean at only 90 hours - gutted - absolutely gutted!

Feb have you not seen 126 above?Looks banging to me

Edited January 18, 2019 by karlos1983

[Frank Trough]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

The euros tomorrow morning will be crucial!! 

And I don’t say that often.

if EC op backtracks and UKMO persists then we should be fine.

If tonight’s EC gathers momentum and support then it could be curtains, for the mid term anyway. Beyond this all options still available.

 

Indeed, maybe another 24 hours after that for the mid term. We aren't there yet - it will be cold but whether we'll see a proper cold spell is not yet clear.

[Met4Cast]

@150

We're good.. phew! Clusters will be a lot more telling because it's difficult to see on the means like this but it would appear at face value that there's not a huge amount of support for the Op

I'm going to bed!

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

126hrs

Seems to be connecting between the Atlantic ridge and Arctic high.. I think we're okay..

Looks broadly similar to the GFS/UKMO at that stage,certainly different from the ECM operational.

Wonder what the control run will show, if that is also different, we can probably for now just chalk that up as a random ECM run that went wrong.