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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City
  • Location: Cork City

I think its a messy enough run. Look at the Isobars over Austria.. very strange. 216 frame just looks very messy and the low looks tropical or subtropical nearly.. possibly? Strange to have in the mid-atlantic at this time. I have a feeling the 0z run will be a lot different, this run just looks.. weird to me.

Edited by SleetAndSnow
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Ecm has diverged from around day 5 onwards by lifting out that upstream trough whilst the ukmo/gfs keep this well defined to day 6 allowing a stronger northwards push of the Atlantic ridge. Slightly concerning that you would think the ECM should be the best bet to resolve this at this range. Still it looks a little suspect at the moment given the trough splits with the parent low deepening as it rides over the ridge.

Oh well on to the 00z suite we go with all options still on the table.

I have berated ECM for picking these features out in the past along with D10 wedges and seen them get it spot on, so just saying it is a greater possibility than if GFS stuck an upper cut-off low there. These are the notorious spoilers we see every year ruin the potential of a wintry spell.

No idea if it is correct, though ICON goes with it and would not take much for the other models to go that way especially as GFS is known for faster Atlantic, so as they slow the flow that could lead to that spoiler.

Although the ECM is seasonal it delays the potential for at least another 12 days for hardcore cold/snow and that is not what most of us want, again!

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Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich

Let’s not forget the UKMO lost the early doors signal going against ECM/GFS and just have a second look at this afternoons run!!! 

Proof is in the pudding

MNR

its also snowing here in Worcester too ☃️☃️

Edited by mother nature rocks
Winter has arrived
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Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl

Come on guys i cant see the screen for blood................only took me two hours to catch up 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

How many times have we seen it that just when one model jumps onboard, another decides its had enough and jumps off. Its quite uncanny really!

Mega cold for the states that run, unfortunately we are going to get shafted even past 240hrs on this run due to that strong west based -Ve NAO that is starting to form at 240hrs.

I’m personally not concerned re a west based -ve NAO Mr AO.....I think the ECM would get there, just delaying it somewhat.  I think it’s got initial LP plunge wrong....let’s see

 BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

I wouldn't worry about the ECM operational run. We'll see were it sits in the ensemble suite. At the same time it can't be ignored. 

If you are worried about it you'll just have to sleep on it until the morning.

Most models have us in a good place for a major pattern change this evening. 

 

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

43 members online, that normally signals winter is over in here... So just looked at the ECM, ok a little wobble and yes don`t want it to wobble more but when you have other models in relative agreement it`s not really a major concern.

If all the other models flip to the ECM then fair enough but 1 iffy run (still cold) was always going to happen.

Not overly concerned with this ECM run tbh, water this down then yes.

ECM0-96.gif

ECM0-192.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
1 hour ago, ZK099 said:

Oh absolutely, we've seen it collapse regularly very close to the reliable. But if that low off the US behaves as we want it to, the pattern should begin in its wake. This is the key part. After that everything else should fall into place. That happens around Tuesday/Wednesday. If we can get within 72hrs of that and have a full house, I'm very confident. 

Hope so! 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

We have to hope here that the ecm has gone into one of it's attention seeking moods. This does happen lol. Let's face it, most of us will be glued (through gaps in fingers) to the 00z run in the morning. Your attention seeking has worked already ecm

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’m personally not concerned re a west based -ve NAO Mr AO.....I think the ECM would get there, just delaying it somewhat.  I think it’s got initial LP plunge wrong....let’s see

 BFTP

I hope your right, I see the 12z ECM evolving into a UK trough, which may in itself have marginal snow chances, but once it moderates that pattern could become locked for at least 7-10 days, especially if the west based -ve NAO goes up and we have whatever cold aloft moderate to the wrong side of marginal and we end up with cold sleety frontal systems coming in.

I think you are right though, I'm not convinced its got that arctic pattern right, especially given the consistency so far from the ECM upto 12z and how the other big models portray it.

Nick S, yep the arctic is handled VERY differently from both the other two big nodels AND how its own operational runs have been handling it. Gotta think its at least in the synoptical minority.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

ECM doing what it usually does, going against it’s own mean. It did this last year so many times on the build up to the beast. Unless other models and means start to follow, I wouldn’t worry. 

UKMO has finally came round, that’s the important thing. I’m pretty sure it was the UKMO that first signposted the collapse of the 2012 failed easterly before the ECM that evening. 

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
On Wednesday, January 16, 2019 at 21:51, icykev said:

Screenshot_2019-01-11-19-25-39-1.thumb.png.5ecf88c20313bc6f63d1368981cad4be.png

1947

Screenshot_2019-01-11-19-23-57-1.thumb.png.cdc714da44e0374bc8587b437a05ad08.png

Jma

JE192-7.GIF.6f32b9e1d434284ffc92811f2a40fa5d.thumb.gif.0f62fbe263f2aa60fe770502423f64b4.gif

What a chart. Looks ominous to me can't wait to see the mornings model outputs! How consistent are jma on model output? Which model is the most reliable in coming days?  Newbie to this but interested in epic/historical weather patterns. Which year of epic/historical cold weather pattern do you believe this could be similar to and why? Hope the charts come true. Liking the similarities between these recent charts @ six days apart 

h500slp.thumb.png.7f1b719152f147c0c94f59cdbbc350ee.png

Ps

What is the best model in your honest opinion? Thanks

Not far off lol!☺ jma again

J156-21-1.thumb.gif.e9392ef570d60198368a7b2d44d01231.gif

Ukmo. . . . . Etc

144.thumb.gif.98788a3b37e3bc4a8dadbfda70ea8437.gif


#becarefulwhatuwish4

144.gif

Edited by icykev
mistake
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Posted
  • Location: Y Gogarth, Great Orme, Llandudno
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winter, Hot Summer
  • Location: Y Gogarth, Great Orme, Llandudno
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I've done a quick paintjob to show this key difference which comes at a crucial time:

So here are the big 3:

The ECM at day 4 note the PV lobe beginning to transfer sw and then compare that with the GFS and UKMO.

We cant afford this early transfer because we need enough forcing on the low over the UK to clear that se and develop some ridging to the north of it.

ECM                                                           GFS                                                        UKMO

ECH1-96.thumb.gif.27c1c39d52bcbfab03fee913825f8858.gifgfsnh-0-96.thumb.png.9d8cad4782889d72cee0e494afeba4fe.pngUN96-21.thumb.gif.649f6d464f1960837acf112e6baee717.gif

 

 

Thanks Nick, because to some eyes these look near enough identical charts. Or at least very similar.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

By the way the temperature ensembles won't tell you much from the 12z EXM, its pretty cold at the surface until pretty much the very end (probably 240hrs I the first 'milder' day).

Instead the pressure charts may give a hint, but we may just have to look at all the ensemble runs on their own to get a better grip and then what the clusters show.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Just now, kold weather said:

By the way the temperature ensembles won't tell you much from the 12z EXM, its pretty cold at the surface until pretty much the very end (probably 240hrs I the first 'milder' day).

Instead the pressure charts may give a hint, but we may just have to look at all the ensemble runs on their own to get a better grip and then what the clusters show.

Temperature charts will tell you out west what way the mean sits believe you me.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

At the moment it is just one single ECM Op having a little wobble. We have been spoilt recently, likely to happen at some point. Let's see where it sits in the ens and even if the ens are also a bit ropey too, it is only one suite.

If the UKMO was showing the same, perhaps some grounds to be a little more concerned but that isn't the case.

Nothing will be decided today...

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Just now, Matthew. said:

5 models with the ECM the odd one out, all the rest looking colder/snowier/north-easterly feed

F36B2B05-6789-4F71-B786-6C69FAFD24DF.jpeg

5F9ECEBE-D732-4600-BE3F-4FF4E879C220.jpeg

71D81736-8ED2-4B06-8E34-1AE34E22FB96.jpeg

BE072AB4-9A20-4E32-A496-2220C0359AA4.jpeg

AA561F2D-44EB-4FD2-A081-6B8DADC63E6A.jpeg

The ecm has the dreaded hump of doom over the north sea. This stops the cold uppers in their tracks to our east. This has happened so many times in the last 15 years. Why? 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, PsychedelicTony said:

Thanks Nick, because to some eyes these look near enough identical charts. Or at least very similar.

You’re welcome . Yes overall you have the same overall NH pattern but it’s just that shaky start then removes one of the foundations to get the UK low se early .

Once the low has cleared with ridge building to the ne we could better cope with the PV lobe transfer .

It’s not just that difference at T96 hrs but this really makes it an uphill struggle .

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Looking at the GEFS, nine members (biggest cluster) support the cut-off low and flatten the pattern within an envelope, depending on how well the wedge combines with the Atlantic ridge pre-spoiler:

gens_panel_dvr7.png

Another cluster is similar to the ECM 0z run. A cluster supporting the op but not great.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

It's such a subtle difference on the ECM I'm not entirely sure we're going to be able to see it on the ensemble means

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

It's such a subtle difference on the ECM I'm not entirely sure we're going to be able to see it on the ensemble means

Not until quite close to the end, one easy to way to tell is look at the individual ensemble members, look at the arctic and look at the 500mb thickness charts, they should give a big clue as early as 72hrs whether there are issues or not.

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