Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[CSC]

ECM and 144 looks too close to comfort for me..

There really does feel a shift on the colder air to be slightly further east than forecast. This is also evident on GFS 12z earlier today.

All runs lead to turning cold..but HOW cold and HOW snowy for next week?!

We still don't know.

Edited January 18, 2019 by CSC

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just now, kold weather said:

144hrs and we JUST get away with it, not the strongest connection but its there and we may have a SW attack quite early this run.

Swings and roundabouts. Sometimes if the risk is high, you get a higher reward.1978 blizzard was bordering on marginal. Every cloud and all that! 

[shaky]

Brilliant ecm!!could potentialyy be snowier than gfs funnily enough!and with a slack flow could be an absolute freezer!

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What does worry me is its baring a striking resemblance to THAT ECM failure, we seemed to had a lot of margin for error then but the 2 areas of troughing ended up engaging each other to our North when at one point there was >500 miles leeway, they are getting closer and closer and the icon is a classic eg.

Possibly, I think though the timings of the low coming from America should be pretty well nailed on now, so the big uncertainty is whether or not there is enough forcing from the far north to shove the upper low SE to the UK area.

Evidence suggests even with the weaker upper high over the Arctic on the 12z ECM it should have enough legs.

[SMU]

What we are omitting from the discussion around the ECM is that between 120-144 where the low is in situ just East of Aberdeen the snow gets deeper & deeper for Scotland

the only milder zones are South Ireland & the SW-

Very cold surface temps all the way down to London ..

[northwestsnow]

Kold has every right to post his excellent analysis on the models

I think EC will be OK, infact funnily enough it looks a bit better for tues..

[warrenb]

Some people in here are hilarious, it could be snowing and 5 feet of snow outside and they would still look at the 6 hour chart and say they are worried. Chill people, this is going to happen. Remember as long as we get the split in the lobes due north (which would mirror the ridge in the strat a couple of days ago), then it is game on.

[karlos1983]

To expect to see an EC Det on the cold side of the mean every run is probably asking too much. This is still shaping up to be a good run, which should really give more confidence to all. Yeah we want it at the first bite and that still looks odds on to me, but if not, it certainly doesn’t look like we’d need to wait long for bite No.2

 

Edited January 18, 2019 by karlos1983

[kold weather]

Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Swings and roundabouts. Sometimes if the risk is high, you get a higher reward.1978 blizzard was bordering on marginal. Every cloud and all that! 

I do wish I could see what the jet was doing on that ECM run, it'd do a lot to inform what is the next step from the 12z ECM run. Not exactly convincing set-up, having been here 15 years, I've seen those go both ways.

As you say though, swing and roundabouts and it DOES make it, regardless of how close it is.

[Harsh Climate]

For me this is better than the last ECM run so far. There is noting worse than a sinking scandinavian high with deep cold passing to the south of us!

[Snowy L]

Looks worryingly flat at 96 but manages to recover at t144. Hopefully that Atlantic low doesn't break through though.

Edit: All good, Scandi high is in

Edited January 18, 2019 by Snowy L

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Brilliant ecm!!could potentialyy be snowier than gfs funnily enough!and with a slack flow could be an absolute freezer!

Unfortunately I don't see that it's just about enough that it doesn't go all hay wire intact by 144 less cold air trying to take back the UK from the SW

[StormyWeather28]

Confusing. Comments are Hot and Cold, excuse the pun. 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

What we are omitting from the discussion around the ECM is that between 120-144 where the low is in situ just East of Aberdeen the snow gets deeper & deeper for Scotland

the only milder zones are South Ireland & the SW-

Very cold surface temps all the way down to London ..

Yeah the 12z ECM as it is is fine, just the synoptic evolution between 96-120hrs is real shaky, but luckily we are now getting close to the timeframe where there should be at least good agreement on the US storm as its a fairly straight forward evolution past its initial formation.

[Mapantz]

A friendly reminder; If you want to have a moan and a general chat about the models, then head over to here

If you think a post shouldn't be in here, report it, don't reply to it.

Thanks.

[MKN]

This ECM is nower near as good as GFS/UKMO if it is snow your after. Cold frosty days will be plentyful though.

[The Eagle]

JMA 108

 

[SMU]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Yeah the 12z ECM as it is is fine, just the synoptic evolution between 96-120hrs is real shaky, but luckily we are now getting close to the timeframe where there should be at least good agreement on the US storm as its a fairly straight forward evolution past its initial formation.

Yeah

168- is probably the worst evolution but also looks the least cleanest & most muddly / messy - & rule of thumb if it looks a mess it normally is incorrect-

JMA / UKMO blend looks about right-

[Derecho]

12z swingometers show no change from the 06z, 25th of January looks just as likely to be cold, still some easterlies in there but more are N/NE winds.

Then for the end of the month a bit less blocked but this is still some time away and its more general trends that matter at this point.

[Johnp]

Don't worry, JMA has this covered

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Kold has every right to post his excellent analysis on the models

I think EC will be OK, infact funnily enough it looks a bit better for tues..

Thanks, I always should mention that I'm simply commenting on what I see. Does NOT mean I think that is what will happen, but that doesn't always come across, especially to newer people here as I'm not exactly a 'regular' these days!

Anyway 168hrs and the upper high is setting up shop right on our doorstep, would watch for a west based -ve NAO setting up towards tne end of the run and this upper high sticking fairly close to our shores which will keep it dry and very cold.

[Cloud 10]

ECM day 7 finally splits that vortex.

 

Should be "interesting"from here!

 

edit. or could be rubbish.

 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Cloud 10

[nick sussex]

The bad news is the ECM hangs around with that shortwave energy to the nw .

The good news is that the profile at day 7 given where the PV lobe is being pulled nw by that big USA storm means if the ECM doesn’t come up with some good later output we really have been cursed!

[swfc]

There seems to be a "nick"shortwave frenzy kicking in !!!

[northwestsnow]

EC is different, but as alluded to by GP, the euro trough should ensure its all good in the hood..