Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[swfc]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

ECM at 96hrs....looks a little too close to the ICON for my liking...

Over a analising already !!!

Edited January 18, 2019 by swfc

[Optimus Prime]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

ECM at 96hrs....looks a little too close to the ICON for my liking...

Lol think you need relax sometimes.  

[ghoneym]

2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

It has been mentioned because it nailed this pattern about 4 days ago.

here it is at +240. Hope it hasn't got anything nailed.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Over a sliding already !!!

So close though and the Arctic looks closer to the ICON than the GFS/UKMO as the Arctic high is cleved in two.

May still come through but that's squeaky bum time! Hope it does come through!

Edited January 18, 2019 by kold weather

[Fozfoster]

48 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

ps snowing here but its not going to amount to anything, then again i'm fixated with the main course next week!!

Or the week after or the week after that or the week after that ........................................................................................................................WOW!!

[CSC]

120 on ECM and that looks a bit dodgey to me..Lets hope to the NW it 'curves' round the UK on 144 bringing in that cold wind from the east...

Slightly worried...

[kold weather]

120hrs and still significant trail left over near Iceland and Arctic connection is gone...

Not quite as bad as the ICON for sure, but the general broad synoptics are close enough...

Think this maybe one of those duff runs you get sometimes in the hunt for cold.

Edited January 18, 2019 by kold weather

[Day 10]

120 - GFS, UKMO, ECM

[Mair Snaw]

what an afternoon of model watching, im stunned. and it is snowing outside as i type, if we get close to these charts the UK will be shut down for weeks, no bread no milk but who cares we will have more than enough snow to go round. surely there cant be anymore upgrades to come can there??

[Fozfoster]

28 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Excellent charts! Taken me best part of an hour to read the posts made since 3.30pm!

Icant catch up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

No real panic yet as long as the EPS don't follow it like sheep.

[kold weather]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

No real panic yet as long as the EPS don't follow it like sheep.

I'd be more worried if the UKMO hadn't jumped onboard.

Plus to be fair, it may still turn out ok, it MAY take another bite of the cherry though on this run.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

120hrs and still significant trail left over near Iceland and Arctic connection is gone...

Not quite as bad as the ICON for sure, but the general broad synoptics are close enough...

Think this maybe one of those duff runs you get sometimes in the hunt for cold.

It happened countless times during the BFTE last February. Relax. 

[Frank Trough]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No real panic yet as long as the EPS don't follow it like sheep.

Indeed. But it does demonstrate that the ICON solution has legs (and not forgetting the UKMO was close).

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No real panic yet as long as the EPS don't follow it like sheep.

Quite, it wouldn't be surprising to see a Det run go to the opposite end of the envelope after being on the cold side for a good few runs

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144:

and we are there, cross model agreement from the big guns.

[karlos1983]

No panic here 

[Harsh Climate]

Don't kniow what all the fuss is about? Like a load of old women in a bingo hall worrying they haven't got there tickets in time on here at times!

 

Looks good to me : ) )

[WalsallWeather123]

Still looks pretty good. Connecting of the Arctic high at 144

[kold weather]

144hrs and we JUST get away with it, not the strongest connection but its there and we may have a SW attack quite early this run.

PS, even if this run went wrong I wouldn't have been too stressed for reasons I've already mentioned (aka UKMO onboard and strong ensemble support)

 

Edited January 18, 2019 by kold weather

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, kold weather said:

I'd be more worried if the UKMO hadn't jumped onboard.

Plus to be fair, it may still turn out ok, it MAY take another bite of the cherry though on this run.

What does worry me is its baring a striking resemblance to THAT ECM failure, we seemed to had a lot of margin for error then but the 2 areas of troughing ended up engaging each other to our North when at one point there was >500 miles leeway, they are getting closer and closer and the icon is a classic eg.

[Djdazzle]

Just illustrates that it’s not even close to a done deal yet.

Although ECM looks ok at 144.

Edited January 18, 2019 by Djdazzle

[Duane S.]

ECM. It's fine, absolutely fine. All within the envelope of possibilities.

[Ice Day]

144 looks grand.... look at the deep cold pool to the northeast.  Now if that comes our way....?

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What does worry me is its baring a striking resemblance to THAT ECM failure, we seemed to had a lot of margin for error then but the 2 areas of troughing ended up engaging each other to our North when at one point there was >500 miles leeway, they are getting closer and closer and the icon is a classic eg.

Ahem, let us never speak of that event again..... Ever...