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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

GEFS Not going to be as good as the 06z, but still good! 

Are there going to be any ICON options in there? 

What is being modelled is the sort of cold spell where even Bomosapiens start to believe....

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

GFS P 12z by T222 showing a SIGNIFICANT snow event for the majority North England southwards as we see the low undercut.

miles in FI

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolute delight reading this thread tonight!!

I'm so giddy i can't even post lol..

If we can get UKMO 120 down to 48 then i will believe- until then i'm going to remain cautious, we are so close to the jackpot..

Carry on ramping..

ps snowing here but its not going to amount to anything, then again i'm fixated with the main course next week!!

Monday nights front should be snow now going by Ukmo!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Outrageous set-up on the GFSP between 192-240hrs, true 80s style battleground set-up as well, probably big falls where the frontal boundary stalls out, typically it tends to be further west but we will see!

ALL paths BUT one leads to cold, ICON managed to find that one path.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

Are there going to be any ICON options in there? 

What is being modelled is the sort of cold spell where even Bomosapiens start to believe....

 

Definitely one that I've seen (maybe pbt 1/2?) but most avoid that pitfall, and I think that its unlikely to be that much of an issue providing the Arctic high is present.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 minute ago, chris55 said:

That is by far the most intense Euro trough/easterly combination I have seen since I started model watching back in 2006. 

Looks like an 80s vintage bbc forecast chart.

if this comes off snow showers would pack well inland...right across the UK I should think!!  Not to mention troughs and fronts embedded.

That looks a very intense low pressure at 965mb...maybe overblown a touch?

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

That is by far the most intense Euro trough/easterly combination I have seen since I started model watching back in 2006. 

Looks like an 80s vintage bbc forecast chart.

if this comes off snow showers would pack well inland...right across the UK I should think!!  Not to mention troughs and fronts embedded.

Blimey look at Austria on those charts.

If Austria looks like this now then what about after this next week half event !!

 

1BF43AD3-438D-4E64-8A28-59C2FB66DBF2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

T124. Precip Chart .

They aren't gospel but nether the less.

Next Wednesday night could see heavy and disruptive snow showers in a strong

Wind

These type of charts should be illegal :drunk-emoji:

19012318_1812.gif

Edited by sorepaw1
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Ha watch the 12z ECM now backtrack towards ICON ;)

Anyway ANOTHER LP moving into the SW at 348hrs on the para and another big helping of snow for SW/Wales and possibly into W.Midlands. Totals already around a 1ft, could easily see another 5-8 inches on that from that LP coming in at 348hrs....mad!

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