Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Summer Sun]

Arpege is getting there slowly but surely

12z yesterday

12z today

It ends with a cooler northwesterly

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Look at that cold pool out east

north american breast has been drained

We have had the christening...the baby is now in nursery...

And is skipping middle school...straight for college...we have brought him up well..amazing stuff this evening!!!

Edited January 18, 2019 by tight isobar

[Winter Hill]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Sunny in Greenland. 

Going to be many different ideas to where we end up but theme is great and best of all the ukmo is on board 

I feel quite giddy looking at that chart... may need a lay down 

[MattStoke]

This GFS is synoptically mental. PV absolutely destroyed. I almost feel sorry for it!

[kold weather]

That cold pooling in Siberia is utterly madness, that really is a beast of a cold pool!

Anyway the vortex comes south and forces the boundary level which screws the south for a short time to the south and reintroduces the proper cold stuff again.

10/10 for the north, probably 9/10 for the south.

Edited January 18, 2019 by kold weather

[That ECM]

@lorenzo

Not far off the output chart you put up the other day and said “just imagine.......” 

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

What are we going to see at 10pm once the GFS has been on the booze! Incredible charts - completely crazy but even a watered down version would be great. 

[Met4Cast]

An Easterly spanning half the Northern Hemisphere..

If that isn't a direct response to the SSW Easterlies downwelling then I don't know what is!

[kumquat]

8 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

But, 7-8 days is such a long time in the weather world!

Too much time for spoilers and changes.

I will be cracking out the champagne when I see these charts within 2-3 days! 

You suit yourself. I'll be cracking out the STELLAS tonight. Snow within 4 days on that run:

 

 

Edited January 18, 2019 by kumquat

[Snowjokes92]

Omg..Just look at that massive lobe  prime for europe and all the blocking on other side. Total opposite. Could be an incredible february..

[Southender]

8 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

but what ?

But it’s a lala batpoo mental reversal. Unlikely hence why I said but...too funny not to post though

Edited January 18, 2019 by Southender

[Radiating Dendrite]

Best run of the internet era? Surely it is up there...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

much better UKMO, wednesday decent direction for here, unlike Tuesday which gives snow to Stockport, ESE through Derbyshire

 

[PLANET THANET]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

But it’s a lala batpoo mental reversal. Unlikely hence why I said but...

ok thanks

[Singularity]

This run seems a bit too ‘fast and hard’ with the transition to major HLB... but not a bad idea of where we could be headed by a week into Feb!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

A post in homage to @tight isobar 

@ COLD

@ SNOW

@ BLOCKING

@ EASTERLY'S

and for good measure chuck in a @feb1991blizzard @ STONKER

   the progression of those extreme 850 temps to the NE could be worth monitoring if the section of PV ends up in that area 

 

[Mucka]

Gotta love signs of the GFS reloading at 384 - have a feeling a few white flags would be out by then if this run came to fruition.

[IDO]

At T108 we have a full house on the ensembles with the diving low: 

First stage complete...

[phil nw.]

Just caught up with today's outputs and wow they have all the makings of a classic and protracted cold spell with plenty of snow chances if these charts get anywhere close to verifying.

The UKMO charts are very  Wintry

Once we get that Euro upper trough established along with those northern wedges we can expect  little wave disturbances heading west in the easterly/north easterly flow so every prospect of snow cropping up at quite short notice once that pattern is established.That's before any attempt from the Atlantic creating a battleground scenario from the south west later on. 

Now we can clearly see the way the split vortex is being modeled it means the path of the jet is diverted and much of the energy goes south.

Classic!

[Harsh Climate]

3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Best run of the internet era? Surely it is up there...

To be honest I've seen a lot better and 19/20 don't come off. 

Good to see though this afternoons output

[sorepaw1]

I think the 18z may end up"  put on  pub watch and a night in the cells .

[lorenzo]

Incredible. Just utterly insane effort from the GFS..Filthy.

[Singularity]

This run seems a bit too ‘fast and hard’ with the transition to major HLB... but not a bad idea of where we could be headed by a week into Feb!

[northumberland snowman]

That gfs run was perfect.. it may even snow in Carlisle.

[Methuselah]

Reminds me of something no-one said, in Crocodile Dundee: Holy smegma, Mick - it's a bloody monster!