Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Met4Cast]

Just now, chris78 said:

Everything looks great...one thing in the back of mind though is...... didnt the ICON handle last winters SSW better than the other models, or is that an over blown claim?

No - It happened to be right but even the NAVGEM calls something right once in a while. The ONLY reason the ICON is popular is because it happens to roll out before any of the other models, if it rolled out at the same time/after I doubt it'd even get a mention. 

It consistently performs badly, especially when it comes to the Arctic and split flows.. both of which are what lead to the pattern we're looking for

[kold weather]

GFS out to 168hrs and the cold pool over Scandinavia starting to shift SSW. Can't see any other location other than down the North sea and then either over the UK or just to the east. Looking solid still.

[SteveB]

3 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Everything looks great...one thing in the back of mind though is...... didnt the ICON handle last winters SSW better than the other models, or is that an over blown claim?

It got the cold spell last Feb nailed from the beginning while all the rest were playing catch up. I don't think it's covered itself in glory since, so hopefully it just got lucky that one time.

Edited January 18, 2019 by SteveB

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Everything looks great...one thing in the back of mind though is...... didnt the ICON handle last winters SSW better than the other models, or is that an over blown claim?

Last years SSW was a completely different  beast. Was the perfect split with a QTR. I’m quite happy to say the ICON at this juncture is wrong. Possibly been found out. Just an opinion of course 

Edited January 18, 2019 by karlos1983

[captaincroc]

4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Massive thermal graident helping fuel it? 

This was my thinking a few days ago, that should help momentum with the cold west. 

Plus I really don't think I have seen a low that strong and big in that position before?

[That ECM]

Channel low heading in from the west as it goes under the ridge? Being greedy now

[Methuselah]

I'll take that, for Day 6...Plenty of kinky isobars, too!

[Tim Bland]

Lots of convective potential with those uppers! 

[Allseasons-Si]

Been watching that trough from 150 hours from N Scandi about to hit the east soon,that could be fun.

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, chris78 said:

Everything looks great...one thing in the back of mind though is...... didnt the ICON handle last winters SSW better than the other models, or is that an over blown claim?

TBH I can't remember. If people feel it did then it makes sense for them tot hink it might handle this one better too but then no 2 SSW events are alike so if it was actually better it could have been a fluke.

I have been watching it closely in recent times and it can pick up things but then loses them completely for some reason. To use a technical term, It is a bit wonky IMO.

I think it gets over-egged as the new kid on the block but really it is GEM type fodda,

If it turns out to be right with this though, then it will be my go to model!

[Guest Delete Me]

What are the 850 temps for the UKMO 12z @ 120?

[Harsh Climate]

I wonder if the low out in the atlanyic is about to link up with the low over europe dragging an even stronger/colder easterly in!

[kold weather]

I'm a little surprised the GFS jasn't done more trough splitting with the upper low near the Azores at 192hrs.

One of the more interesting upper patterns at 192hrs I've seen for sure, could go either way in terms of how the LP evolves in the Atlantic. Small margin for an exceptional set-up, we will see if it comes off.

[Eskimo]

I can't believe we are seeing synoptics like this at only 7-8 days out!!

[nick sussex]

The GFS looks a bit messy later into day 8 but the upstream pattern is similar to the earlier run.

Amplified west USA ridge and troughing eastern USA.  This is good news .

[A.J]

29 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

BOOOM!!!!! UKMO is game on. ICON is the Boris Johnson of models this evening

All over the place, non-committal, prone to be wrong....and a bit of a tit..........fare enough 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

I wonder if the low out in the atlanyic is about to link up with the low over europe dragging an even stronger/colder easterly in!

That chart is full of epicness!!!

[That ECM]

Just now, nick sussex said:

The GFS looks a bit messy later into day 8 but the upstream pattern is similar to the earlier run.

Amplified west USA ridge and troughing eastern USA.  This is good news .

Not for my oranges from Florida

[kold weather]

S.England is right on the boundary between the real cold air and the slightly moderated air from the bubble moving into SW Europe due to the Azores Low. Could be a close run thing as to whether the whole country gets paradise or whether its limited to more northern parts from 216hrs onwards.

My best guess though is the boundary will slip away southwards enough to re-introduce the coldest air back into the south.

[Mucka]

They mythical Murr sausage

[Stuie]

Just to show some perspective of the UKMO chart, the 850`s are cold but maybe not as cold as some may think. 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Stuie W

[Southender]

GFS lala land has gone full on reversal mode. Mental.

[bluearmy]

Just now, Southender said:

GFS lala land has gone full on reversal mode. Mental.

Who would have thought ......

anyway kold - I wouldn’t waste too much time on the minutiae of a gfs at day 9 ....another bus will be along shortly with sub day 5 stuff to look at !!

[captaincroc]

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Just to show some folks the perspective of the UKMO chart, the 850`s are cold but maybe not as cold as some may think. 

Thanks for this, though (experts correct me if I'm wrong here...) but wind will be coming in off the continent where the Dew Points should/would be lower anyways? So wouldn't need as low uppers for snow?

[Derecho]

The return of storm Emma, haha but with less cold uppers. On the flipside the Greenland high may keep the colder air pushing south