Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[winterof79]

UKMO V GFS 120Z 06 z

[Allseasons-Si]

I don't normaly post until later on but i couldn't resist

the UKMO joins the party

Edited January 18, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[CSC]

Colder air sitting on the S and SE corner than previously forecasted.. 

This could be an upgrade for S/SE for snow Tuesday as I mentioned earlier!..

[Met4Cast]

BOOOM!!!!! UKMO is game on. ICON is the Boris Johnson of models this evening

Edited January 18, 2019 by Daniel Smith

[Ali1977]

BOOOOOOOOOOM 

[karlos1983]

Lift off

Stunning chart, don’t care how it got there, it got there!!

Edited January 18, 2019 by karlos1983

[tight isobar]

Gfs looks to be on track with its 6z sister run..

Big consistancy here...

And fine margins with the icon or not...

Its getting obvious- whos winning out...

 

Edit ukmo 144 yes...big boom!!!

Edited January 18, 2019 by tight isobar

[Allseasons-Si]

OH!!! MY!!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Icon will come around on the 12z tomorrow... It did this all last winter with all the big snow events.. 

[CSC]

Is that a snow event chance Wednesday for the UKMO 144..

[kold weather]

Great UKMO at 144hrs.

I see what your saying BA, but the game changer is that arctic high, without it and I feel it may as well gone the same way as ICON. ICON really is not picking out that arctic high at all, whilst other models are.

[ICE COLD]

OMG OMG OMG . The slayer model is on board 

UKMO 

[SMU]

UKMO amazing - snow event followed by more snow events + longivity of cold

What more could we be asking for...

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, CSC said:

Is that a snow event chance Wednesday for the UKMO 144..

Yes should be plenty of snow showers crossing the country.

Check the fax later for details.

Edited January 18, 2019 by Mucka

[bluearmy]

Just now, kold weather said:

Great UKMO at 144hrs.

I see what your saying BA, but the game changer is that arctic high, without it and I feel it may as well gone the same way as ICON. ICON really is not picking out that arctic high at all, whilst other models are.

100% agree re the arctic high - that in itself should keep the alarms ringing !! 

[kold weather]

There is also a slight trail on the 12z GFS at 114hrs, but the upper ridge is literally forcing its way south and forcing the jet to arch more to the south than it is at that point, so the upper troughing and trailing shortwave is going to have to go south.

Great UKMO 144hrs.

[Southender]

Well unless the GFS goes off on a tangent, then its all good and heading the same way as this mornings run and now the UKMO.

[Steven morrison]

Hello guys as a complete newbie and worse than a novice here Even I see the correlation in this scenario,however can I ask how the met office don't upgrade to this event that is on its way? They must be seeing what you guys are seeing? Is it not to cause panic or something else ?

[Mucka]

GEM 00z wa a cracker but 12z already more amplification in the Atlantic and a tad further West, looking good!

[MattStoke]

7 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Can’t tell you number of times I’ve seen cold spells forecast to be dry only to see large amounts of widespread snow and vice versa. Or the number of times rain has been predicted only for it to fall as snow or vice vesa.

Snow is very difficult to predict even at short range in this country. Pointless looking at such detail at this range. You’ll drive yourself nuts!

Just to re-iterate my earlier post. I only expected rain for me today and, low and behold, it’s snowing!

[CSC]

Phenomenal by UKMO at 144. Confusing when their app has it mainly dry for a lot of the country next week..

Is this automated? The charts seen just now show a very different picture!

[Methuselah]

Possible back-edge snow event followed a Cheshire-Gap streamer? There might even be a trough embedded in the northwesterly air-stream?

 

[kold weather]

GFS is back onboard with a decent amount of backedge snow, it doesn't have ANY settling snow, I suspect at least on higher ground you would get a decent settling, but it would be nice to get some good backedge snow, been a while since I've seen a good amount of it.

Ed- I'm almost certain there would be some streamer activity on that intial NNW airflow.

Edited January 18, 2019 by kold weather

[Allseasons-Si]

Better height's into Svalbald at 120 on the gfs compared to the 06z 126.

[Derecho]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

OMG OMG OMG . The slayer model is on board 

UKMO 

Stunning chart, deep low exactly where we want it and if the high pressure moves to Scandi we can really tap into that cold for good, fantastic stuff.

Edited January 18, 2019 by Quicksilver1989