Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[CSC]

I do think the next 5 to 6 days could shape the rest of our winter..

The 120-144 h timeframe is one to watch for sure.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all

As we await some eagerly-awaited 12Z output, just a look at some of the current output 10 days or so away:

It's hugely unlikely the 12Z GFS will be an "upgrade" on the 06Z (I don't know how it could be in all honesty) and we will see some OP runs which will have the usual suspects reaching for the whatever but I'm cautiously optimistic this time next week many of us will have snow but for now cautious optimism is as far as I want to go.

Didn’t we say that about yesterday’s 6z??? .  Using JH method.....2 awesome 6z in a row

 

BFTP

[kold weather]

US weather forumites are not convinced the GFS is handling the low over NE states correctly and the surface low is pumping up too much warmth. Interesting to see their perspectives on it.

Wonder if that will have any effect for us?

[warrenb]

Again I say if we get the split in the lobes then it is game on.

[Spah1]

UKMO 96 hrs

[shaky]

Gfs looking good at 72 hours!

[winterof79]

15 minutes ago, IDO said:

 

We can see where the ICON kills the pattern. At around T138 the next wave (far SW), instead of joining the Atlantic ridge it gets blocked off by a cut off low. It then forces the pattern east rather than pumping warmer air north via the Atlantic ridge. GFS 06z for comparison.

One to watch...

Yes it shuts the Sister lobe down whereas 06z gfs doesn't 

 

[CSC]

GFS not looking bad at 72 hours..it looks a bit warmer than yesterdays 12z with the cold air slightly further east. I wonder if this could have ramifications later on in the run..

[Johnp]

Lovely UKMO 120

[Spah1]

120hrs

[Met4Cast]

UKMO 120 puts two fingers up at the ICON and swings to the ECM/GFS. This should put some doubts to rest re: ICON

 

[Mike Poole]

UKMO looking really good at T120

Should link with the heights to the north on next frame?

[Southender]

System dropping further SW on the GFS @ 78hrs. Should be another stonker....

[kold weather]

GFS looks ok out to 84hrs, Id like to slightly tone down the Icelandic low but the Arctic high is coming down and the US low looks fine in location.

Another 24-36hrs of in model time and we should know for certain, but looks ok.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Icon was one of the worst performing high RES models last winter with the hirlam taking top spot I belive...for some reason it sucks when anything other happens from a North or easterly direction 

[tight isobar]

Ukmo fab@120..gfs heading into another great evo also..

Nothing wrong with energy formats...

And indeed alignments...

 

 

Edited January 18, 2019 by tight isobar

[Rocheydub]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs looking good at 72 hours!

You’re doing this deliberately at this stage! Good luck!

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO looking really good at T120

Should link with the heights to the north on next frame?

Certainly does, I think if this evenings and tomorrow's output stick with this it is a done deal.

GFS and ECM to come.

[Met4Cast]

I think some are at risk of over analysing these models, worrying about isobars being in a very slightly different place is taking things a little too literally.

UKMO 120 - Fantastic

GFS so far is a little better, alignment seems better for riding around the trough towards Scandinavia 

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

UKMO 120 puts two fingers up at the ICON and swings to the ECM/GFS. This should put some doubts to rest re: ICON

 

Better than ECM IMO with lower heights / pressure and more in the way of snow  ECM for comparison 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Tim Bland

[shaky]

1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

You’re doing this deliberately at this stage! Good luck!

No seriously the system in the atlantic is digging slightly further west and south no lie!!

[Harsh Climate]

Upgrade on Tuesdays event!

[bluearmy]

the ukmo retains something of the icon with the more nw/se jet axis and also the hang back of low heights towards Greenland - it wouldn’t take much of a shift for it to have been very close to the icon

small margins still 

 

[Ali1977]

GFS brings back a snow event on Tue morning for many. -6/7 uppers so borderline though.

[kold weather]

Great looking UKMO at 120hrs, that is 100% game on from the UKMO for the first real time in this model watching session.

ICON doesn't seem to have any more than the slightest hint of an Arctic high either, which looks very suspect and probably an area its going to be weak with.