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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Wow! This must be a netweather first: locked-in cold with no sign of a breakdown!:cold:

image.thumb.png.c821b16945e45fdea2ea4111cf29ef00.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gloucester
  • Weather Preferences: Snow that settles then freezes!
  • Location: Gloucester
18 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I think you referring to that December 81 to January 82 period and DARE!

I’m 57 and in Gloucester/Bristol it was Amazing!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

00Z T850 ensemble: an increasing number of members dipping to between -10 and -16C..The trend is your friend!

image.thumb.png.7160ded3574e386adbd4f3b7180de674.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Wow! This must be a netweather first: locked-in cold with no sign of a breakdown!:cold:

image.thumb.png.c821b16945e45fdea2ea4111cf29ef00.png

Pete, do i detect a 

image.thumb.png.622a1dd792d8f1fecb84ee36826135a0.pngimage.thumb.png.ea57cc5bc69384eb2a4ff1f91cff3a5c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

00Z T850 ensemble: an increasing number of members dipping to between -10 and -16C..The trend is your friend!

image.thumb.png.7160ded3574e386adbd4f3b7180de674.png

Try the 6z suite, much better ridging on the mean will mean many more of those runs and more will be sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, weirpig said:

Before all of the fun and games  we need the here and now period to behave.  All good according to the Ens 

image.thumb.png.f081617ed97056bb1b74a4be19e4e42e.png

That is a CRACKING mean wooooohooooooo...

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Good guidance from the GEFS for that link up between Atlantic Ridge and wedge to the N/NE:

gens_panel_xoa5.png  Now at T180: gens_panel_azs3.png

Control T180: gens-0-1-180.thumb.png.9d8a24b3029e69608b12d71c38dd42de.png

Nice trend...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The 06z para is looking very good as well at 144hrs, looks like it has finally woke up and has decided to get with the programme. Pattern probably isn't as good as the 06z GFS op, but it really is MANY time better than the runs from the para yesterday!

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
30 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

pure filth from the 06z

 

anim_mjj7.gif

 

Synoptically stunning!

That run sequence reminds me of a 1970s kaleidoscope i had as a child.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Control backs the Op :shok:

image.thumb.png.a157653e0a3b166ce6dbc1b3f1d38aa1.png

That's a stunning chart, and those long NE's remind me of Jan 1987... 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

I can't help but giggle at the thought of this place should a Dec 2012 happen all over again! Models really are firming up on what could potentially be a very special and prolonged spell of winter weather!

The first hurdle (trough disrupting into Europe and height rises) is almost dealt with, we should get more model consensus for that this evening/tomorrow morning. Then if we get the azores/Arctic High link up the 6z GFS is what happens.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The GFS para has a decent amount of convection trying to push inland, that is despite a relatively stable pattern with the high pressure, so a good sign, especially as lapse rates aren't anything that amazing either (though obviously if the 06z GFS happens, those lapse rates will be more noteable for sure!)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

Extended ensemble means starting to reduce the Western US ridge in favour of Alaskan / Arctic ridges. Will be interesting to watch this trend as it opens the door for more westerly flow through the southern arm of the jet and undercutting . 

The high expectation for February is for low pressure in the North Atlantic currently where we have a programmed anomalous ridge . 

Sounds rewarding but also dangerous.

 

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