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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

And thats were you want your high griceland not scandi for a prolonged extreme cold snowy run.

gfsnh-0-222.png

That’s an incredible set up! Especially good for frontal snowfall potential in the West Country!

And it all starts to set up at a reasonable timeframe with the Azores undercut.

lovely jubbly 

 

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Here comes round 3... madness.

C55C81A0-B6AB-41BB-B219-30199B13DA1E.png

Yup, almost as if something strong is buckling the jet stream and preventing mean Westerlies! Literally rinse and repeat: 

image.thumb.png.bac21f6ab6deb8987410bfbe68c09d22.png

Edited by ITSY
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

The 6z would be up there with some of histories absolute classic snowfalls across the UK. High pressure remaining in Situ to the North while low after low slides underneath absolutely burying much of Southern England..

Wow.thumb.png.a8a1174a5cd75a69a58111dbd2dee673.pngYES.thumb.png.2e4ad8f16725fb7d90ae67fbdc38644c.png

Incredible!

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
12 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Some classic old school charts appearing. Makes me want to listen to some Human League records!

GFSOPEU06_210_1.png

Prefer OMD myself (oh my days)- But yes, a quality 6Z for sure..

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
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Posted

It really infuriates me when people comment saying not as good this run then the next comment is scrap it it’s all good, let the flaming thing run through a bit first before all the knee jerk comments! There’s so many good knowledgeable people in here maybe some need to learn from them and stop the up down up down so much. How can people learn with it all....drives me mad. Sorry mods off topic but you have your work cut out in here at times

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted
13 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Some classic old school charts appearing. Makes me want to listen to some Human League records!

GFSOPEU06_210_1.png

I think you referring to that December 81 to January 82 period and DARE!

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

GFS now sending reinforcements to the high from the mid Atlantic

WHAT.thumb.png.ae66daedbd008ebbb45b42ee2e637337.png

If this pattern does actually develop, the UK will be locked into the freezer for 3/4 weeks minimum..

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

You’d ideally want the energy disrupting a touch more se to feed low heights over northern Italy rather than towards Iberia but really this is nit picking because upto day ten the GFS was astounding .

We are likely to see more changes but hopefully just variations on the same cold and wintry theme !

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Amazingly stubborn pattern, that is the sort of stuff that made Dec 10, Feb 47, Jan 63, etc....

Anyway out to 300hrs and the PV lobe coming down towards Eurasia again, should help to keep the airflow broadly from the north and reload the cold pattern again after it slightly runs out of puff.

Wow....

BOOM!!!!

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

It really infuriates me when people comment saying not as good this run then the next comment is scrap it it’s all good, let the flaming thing run through a bit first before all the knee jerk comments! There’s so many good knowledgeable people in here maybe some need to learn from them and stop the up down up down so much. How can people learn with it all....drives me mad. Sorry mods off topic but you have your work cut out in here at times

True - No point in commenting on what might come much later in a run from what is happening within the first five days .... it’s not possible to know ! 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I like the way this op shows how squeaky bum this much trailed set up could become at times - very much as per met office output.  

I think even if the initial set-up doesn't come off, the GFS 06z shows several different reloading cold shots, one of them would land even if we do somehow snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but IF the first blow connects...then we could have a very long prolonged pattern for sure!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
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Posted (edited)

pure filth from the 06z

 

anim_mjj7.gif

 

Synoptically stunning!

Edited by karlos1983
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Glacier Point Accomplished

Glacier Point

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Popular Post
Posted

Once again, Euro trough omnipresent. Once we get cold, the permutations are all loaded towards the cold variants.

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

Meh..384hrs puts too much pressure on the high from the Canadian lobe and sees it toppling towards the UK rather than NE towards Scandinavia 

384.thumb.png.ab2beab908c166ab00bd06dee8e9819f.png

Disappointing despite much of the UK already being buried under feet of snow from the previous.. well, entire run..

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
Just now, karlos1983 said:

pure filth from the 06z

anim_kek5.gif

 

Synoptically stunning!

How do you make those gifs?

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Meh..384hrs puts too much pressure on the high from the Canadian lobe and sees it toppling towards the UK rather than NE towards Scandinavia 

384.thumb.png.ab2beab908c166ab00bd06dee8e9819f.png

Disappointing despite much of the UK already being buried under feet of snow from the previous.. well, entire run..

Booooo. At least it would give everyone a chance to get and sledge in the frozen sunshine!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

How do you make those gifs?

On Meteociel there is an icon called GIF. Click on it, choose your parameters and create the gif. Then copy and paste the link

Edited by karlos1983
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

How do you make those gifs?

Click the GIF button https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

Most of the models on meteociel have it you may need to use a translator if your French isn't good

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Southender Seasoned

Southender

Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Meh..384hrs puts too much pressure on the high from the Canadian lobe and sees it toppling towards the UK rather than NE towards Scandinavia 

384.thumb.png.ab2beab908c166ab00bd06dee8e9819f.png

Disappointing despite much of the UK already being buried under feet of snow from the previous.. well, entire run..

State of the vortex though, bless it.

Pretty sure we would see a Northerly reload pretty soon after and a nice link of heights across the pole.

Longevity.

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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
Posted

Most interesting thing for me is that the GFS is going against its bias of rolling the atlantic in over us in low res.. the UK will be at a total stand still if these charts are even close to being correct.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
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Posted

That GFS run is a prime visual example of how unlikely we are to see heights sink over the uk anytime soon if you're interested @Lloyds32  

I need a lay down!

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