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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Im not sure why folk are talking about any areas of high pressure collapsing at day ten?Your not going to see a GH any time soon plus the heighths don't need to be huge given there ability to disrupt any incoming areas of low pressure.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Not totally but fair to say what we have is more of a cold UK/Euro high rather than a scandi by 240hrs due to the pressure from the NW by the vortex.

I'd love to see where it goes from 240hrs.

Yes, it's one option and precarious at points, but it's such a complex setup that it seems unlikely. Having said that, the Low pressure is still diving towards the south, so other opportunities for snow and it seems that the Euro trough remains a strong signal!

Any other time we'd love to have a chart like that. Only thing remaining now is to get more ensembles onside and it's looking good. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
23 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

At 216, looks like we're into repeating pattern territory?  Could be a big old battleground coming up here.

image.thumb.png.4de9c191dadf11e0196e911903ca81c0.png

And what a battleground it would be, cold vs very cold and in the middle heading in heavy snow! 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
6 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Have to agree although no doubt it will get very cold next week there is just not much snow about. Any ppn shown is mostly a sleety Mix. Let's hope for the pattern to be shifted about 100 miles further west and we can really tap into some nice ppn and uppers. Also not nice to see people having a dig at you for basically commenting on what is shown and having a balanced view. Let's hope we get further upgrades and some snowy action.

It's fine, I was right when I get said heights would collapse towards the UK by 240hrs and that is exactly what happened. People hear the word collapse and assume that must mean mild and Atlantic taking over, but I think it's clear that isn't the case on the 00z, but nonetheless the core does shift about 700 miles southwards, so important that's a collapse from where it was.

Despite being dryish by 216hrs, and that is actually one of my favourite winter setups, bitter cold.

PS, the low coming in n at 240hrs is already drying out over Ireland, won't be anything left of it by the time it gets over to England/Scotland!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

From where I’m sitting at this stage I don’t think the models could look any better. They are pretty much all following the same lines and all routes are leading to cold. No point in trying to say where will snow if at all it’s ages away, it’s all about getting the right temperatures around for now

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Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge
2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

From where I’m sitting at this stage I don’t think the models could look any better. They are pretty much all following the same lines and all routes are leading to cold. No point in trying to say where will snow if at all it’s ages away, it’s all about getting the right temperatures around for now

It's a slack flow to be sure but Christ on a bike is it cold.

"Build it and they will come".... get the cold in and then look for snow.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

This precip loooks heavier than forecast, could we end up having a few decent coverings today I wonder!! Maybe just higher ground but some could do ok.

AFD8920E-76AE-482A-A9FD-2357971BA327.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Anyone with good knowledge of the archives ever seen a chart like this appear?

Weird.thumb.gif.6bf2ab6dd543d26c2c306f336d1f0ef4.gif

Very strange, simultaneous Westerlies and Easterlies.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.746da75f778f831a3b6277bb3320db55.png

Those uppers do not suggest a cold UK high to me? They suggest an easterly...(day 10).

It's a weak easterly flow for sure.

Anyway 240hrs setup is actually fairly stable, no obvious breakdown front that slack easterly.

Daniel, it's uncommon but look at some of the coolest winter months, most will feature on that type of setup...

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
8 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Are you deliberately setting out to find as many flaws in the models this morning? The micro details will continue to change run to run.

Stunning runs all round and nearly cross model agreement - just need a more convincing UKMO.

Of course not, just commenting on what I've seen. The ECM is great, but verbatim it's not that snowy...and could easily go wrong that's all.

One last time, ECM is GREAT this run! 

GEM is even better. GFS is also grand but probably even drier than the ECM.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

Todays favourite model is the CMA ,  to be fair it has been quite consistent 

Screenshot_20190118-074048.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Every picture tells a story

65C858D4-FF80-483A-8643-2183EE3195B9.thumb.png.0c11fc4dd007d9db6b0f6b1eb8dc5964.png73034797-C144-4493-83DD-60EECF6658BA.thumb.jpeg.e79b244e804c22fef775413d26178ec5.jpeg

It's a cracker whichever way you look at it. We don't often get to see a cold slack flow over ground that may already have snow cover. Could be some very cold overnight minima if that did verify. The words "penetrating frost" spring to mind...

Edited by WhiteFox
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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Anyone with good knowledge of the archives ever seen a chart like this appear?

Weird.thumb.gif.6bf2ab6dd543d26c2c306f336d1f0ef4.gif

Very strange, simultaneous Westerlies and Easterlies.. 

Best thing about that chart as far as i can see is how much reduced the PV is to our NW, must leave the door open for more heights to our NW? 

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

Yes, the trends continue in much the same way but as I said yesterday - the set-up is precarious and highly changeable within a short time-frame. I don't know about how the different models resolve the resolution of the upper-troughing west of Greenland or over N.Canada, but I'm suspect of this pattern. I think given the record in these situations, the extent of that cold air will end up producing sufficient cyclogenesis in the N.Atlantic to erode heights over Scandi, where quite frankly we need them if we are to have any snow except the SOUTH of the country. Too many a time have we ended up with a weak block collapsing over the UK with shortwaves over the top, flurries for the far SE and the main LOW heading off south towards Italy and Greece. I predict the same to happen in this scenario.

Edited by PersianPaladin
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Every picture tells a story

65C858D4-FF80-483A-8643-2183EE3195B9.thumb.png.0c11fc4dd007d9db6b0f6b1eb8dc5964.png73034797-C144-4493-83DD-60EECF6658BA.thumb.jpeg.e79b244e804c22fef775413d26178ec5.jpeg

oh I Get It Superstitious! Lol

 

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.746da75f778f831a3b6277bb3320db55.png

Those uppers do not suggest a cold UK high to me? They suggest an easterly...(day 10).

That is a amazing chart for us coast dwellers, showers tend to get stuck on the coast in that type of set up

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