Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Spah1]

216hrs ECM will not end up like that. The full effects from the SSW should be making an imprint on the trop by this stage and you would expect more robust blocking than this FI chart Imho

[Ice Day]

At 216, looks like we're into repeating pattern territory?  Could be a big old battleground coming up here.

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

216hrs ECM will not end up like that. The full effects from the SSW should be making an imprint on the trop by this stage and you would expect more robust blocking than this FI chart Imho

It was obvious it was going to end up like that, I said so previously this morning that it will collapse due to how zonal the upflow is.

We really need it further NW, we get away with it but only just. Another 100-150 miles SE and we will have a cold dry high instead. Small error range there.

Have to say though the cold air does look strong on this run.

Edited January 18, 2019 by kold weather

[bluearmy]

18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No downgrades on ECM- perfect in my eyes!

Plenty of snow over the UK 96-168

There may be come the day but again, the raw data is generally a high ground affair and the streamers evident on yesterday’s 12z stiff e flow are very toned down on this run 

detail remains difficult on the whole set up 

[Ice Day]

..... and yes we are!  Superb 240 chart.... have a good day all.

 

[seabreeze86]

Great start to the day the UKMO improves and the rest start to align to the ECM,  there's going to be variations but if we get the the Arctic and azores ridges to link we are there.

Probably 12zs Saturday before we no for sure

[Skyraker]

9 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

216hrs ECM will not end up like that. The full effects from the SSW should be making an imprint on the trop by this stage and you would expect more robust blocking than this FI chart Imho

Just needs propping up a bit.

Where is that low to the NW going then?

aaaaaaaand… BOOM!

Edited January 18, 2019 by Skyraker

[That ECM]

Imagine fronts running into that air

Edited January 18, 2019 by That ECM

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

There may be come the day but again, the raw data is generally a high ground affair and the streamers evident on yesterday’s 12z stiff e flow are very toned down on this run 

detail remains difficult on the whole set up 

I agree, it doesn't look that snowy to my eyes other than maybe for the SE, it is after very dominated by HP.

It does look bitterly cold though by 216hrs, shallow HP flow from east could bring some very low mins.

[Captain Shortwave]

Decent set of runs this morning, of course the detail will change. Even with pressure from the west once the deep cold becomes entrenched over Europe any high building over the top will be difficult to sink and will likely sheer away instead, the day 10 ECM will probably leave a battleground as the low heights upstream disrupt. 

Speaking of the ECM, very very cold by day 10, probably widespread sub -10c minina under a slack easterly feed.

[MattStoke]

20 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Wow that is SO close to going wrong on the ECM. Looks like pressure will likely collapse reasonably quickly south into the UK from 168hrs.

Cold run still but that is probably just a 100 mile shift away from not working out this run...

Also note how zonal pattern is upstream, that will put pressure on any block.

Pressure won’t collapse with low heights to our south.

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

..... and yes we are!  Superb 240 chart.... have a good day all.

 

Agreed and a good run from ECM ………….a great run 

[knocker]

With the ecm the complex transition at T132 becomes by 168 an area of low pressure over western Europe with the subtropical high in the Atlantic ridging  north east but under pressure from the next trough pushing east Thus a north easterly wind over the UK. By T198 the trough has split the ridge creating a high cell to the north east which facilitates the advection of very cold air under the southern flank. A very precise evolution unlikely to be repeated I would have thought

[January Snowstorm]

And at 240hrs the ecm has lost all heights to our North. Bitterly cold over England though with ice day likely. Scope for upgrades later.....We need them

[IDO]

Models great this morning, getting those wedge of heights into the NE. This means that while we wait for the upstream Pacific amplification and the inevitable Atlantic push we have cold ongoing and a block for the Atlantic to hopefully undercut.

The op and control are on the same songsheet and good cluster reinforcing this pattern. At D8:

Variations on the theme in those supporting ensembles so surface conditions may vary within that envelope.

So we need to hope that there are upgrades as to the initial push to get the block into a more productive snow maker before the inevitable squeeze from the Atlantic. Too early to worry about those details, today is about getting run after run along these lines...

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Pressure won’t collapse with low heights to our south.

Not totally but fair to say what we have is more of a cold UK/Euro high rather than a scandi by 240hrs due to the pressure from the NW by the vortex.

I'd love to see where it goes from 240hrs.

Edited January 18, 2019 by kold weather

[Tom Quintavalle]

Very encouraging signs from the overnight runs. An Arctic High dropping down, on the 00z ECM and settling over the deep snowfields of Scandinavia and starting to pull in some very cold 850's, by t192. 

That High then retreats but only at the expense of another possible Arctic attack from the N.W. But that's all way off, in la la land!! 

A very good start to the morning's proceedings. Steady as she goes!!

Regards,

Tom. 

[Skyraker]

5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

And at 240hrs the ecm has lost all heights to our North. Bitterly cold over England though with ice day likely. Scope for upgrades later.....We need them

I'm sorry but that's just not true mate.

Look - 

<-- Heights to our north, just because they're not yellow.

I'd crawl naked over broken glass for that to verify.

That low to the NW is heading SE under the HP, carmageddon follows.

Now go have a happy pill and play nicely with the other weather folk.

Edited January 18, 2019 by Skyraker

[Seasonality]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There may be come the day but again, the raw data is generally a high ground affair and the streamers evident on yesterday’s 12z stiff e flow are very toned down on this run 

detail remains difficult on the whole set up 

True, but a general observation, and certainly not a criticism of what you've said. It's great for UK based cold weather fans to see the cold air arriving full stop, I'm sure snow will follow (don't want to jinx it). Much easier for those of us based 1500km further east! The wait this year has been painful for UK cold lovers.

[bluearmy]

Day 10 isn’t a chart I’ve seen before ........

btw, people keep going on about greeny highs on the 46 ..... the charts you see are means for 7 days .... there are no big greeny upper ridges showing on the 46.  

you wouldn’t expect features like that to show at more than two/three  weeks on a 51 run ens mean..... heights will be  higher than normal to our n and lower to our south ....... the deduction will be that we see one establish and the clusters may well reflect that but we don’t see the clusters so must rely on titbits on twitter or metoffice stuff 

[kold weather]

Looking at the raw data there is little shower activity past 25th over than favoured spots due yo more stable air as the high pressure collapses towards the UK/central Europe. It maybe a little overdone, but despite the cold it doesn't inherently look snowy to me.

BA, I've seen them historically looking through the records, normally bitter Sub zero days but dry by that point.

Edited January 18, 2019 by kold weather

[Scandinavian High.]

So looking vey good now an easterly flow setting in next week south east England looking snowy.

[seabreeze86]

Think people are jumping the gun here let's get the important time frame currently 120hrs to 164hrs down to 96hrs before we start worrying about precipitation.

Get the cold in and the snow will come 

Edit just seen the GEM it's done a complete 180 from yesterday 

Edited January 18, 2019 by seabreeze86

[kold weather]

One other thing ive noticed is definitely a trend towards more pressure comeing from the PV by 192hrs on both the GFS and ECM which may curtail at least the convective element of the easterly as GP establishes near our shores.

Also confirmed ice days by 27th on the ECM 

[snowangel32]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Looking at the raw data there is little shower activity past 25th over than favoured spots due yo more stable air as the high pressure collapses towards the UK/central Europe. It maybe a little overdone, but despite the cold it doesn't inherently look snowy to me.

Have to agree although no doubt it will get very cold next week there is just not much snow about. Any ppn shown is mostly a sleety Mix. Let's hope for the pattern to be shifted about 100 miles further west and we can really tap into some nice ppn and uppers. Also not nice to see people having a dig at you for basically commenting on what is shown and having a balanced view. Let's hope we get further upgrades and some snowy action.