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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS is great, GEM is stunning, UKMO better but not quite there. (still good I should add)

 

GEM is what we want to see. Perfect for a NE then a nice E and retrogression for a reload thereafter.

gemnh-0-174.png?00gemnh-0-198.png?00

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
2 minutes ago, DanBaynes said:

I'm no expert but surely it wouldn't be a toppler, due to the low highs in main land Europe the high would turn into a scandi high pressure?

Needs to be further west so we can tap into the colder Air.! 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFSp also improved, we are not there yet but looking good for an Easterly

gfsnh-0-132.png

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

I think we can now say there is going to be an Easterly next week. Cracking 00z so far. I think the UKMO is very close to being perfect i don't think it would topple as the low hieghts will stop it falling but would still expect further corrections and upgrades. Great not to have those early morning blues. Why do Met and BBC still show rain or sleet though for most of the country and temps between 4 to 6 degrees. Looking at every model now all show it much colder and uppers and dew points to be snow. It's a puzzler.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Continuing on briefly from the short range with the gfs. By T144 there is a large area of low pressure over western Europe as the high pressure now ridges north east thus the UK in quite a strong north easterly portending wintry showers in the north and east. Twenty four hours later a similar scenario but everything has slipped a tad south east.  By T210 the slippage is complete as the ridge cones under renewed pressure from the energy exiting the eastern seaboard. As has been said repeatable, this is a long way from a done deal

gfs_z500_vort_natl_24.thumb.png.1cd96dabfb36ffedfacc4642f0b9851d.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_29.thumb.png.226d923e25d0048a989692ef277a9885.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_36.thumb.png.d66ce597ce89178838ec35c8ab31c546.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Sorry but I do think the GFS has 'gone off on one with that low pressure bomb shot all the way to the med. With ukmo for comparison. *Edit. I bet ECM will follow ukmo's lead

gfseu-0-144 (5).png

UE144-21 (13).gif

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFSp also improved, we are not there yet but looking good for an Easterly

gfsnh-0-132.png

Yes it’s looking like a high probability the main thing for me is that the overnight ukmo update has come over to a better solution and more inline with the other big two at present. Let’s prey the ecm stays broadly inline with last nights output.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
18 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFSp also improved, we are not there yet but looking good for an Easterly

gfsnh-0-132.png

FV3 has mixed out the T850s! 

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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
18 minutes ago, snowice said:

FV3 has mixed out the T850s! 

Think I seem to recall kold saying last night if we do get a scandi ridge that it may take some budging that bodes well hopefully..

Edited by london-snow
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Looking pretty good this morning across the board  for a decent spell of wintry weather.i wouldn't be fretting over 850s and precipitation a week or so away tbh.happy start to the weekend imminent!!!

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Deep Genoa trough theme continues. Get that in place and all roads will lead to cold thereafter.

Good start to the day. UKMO and GFSP, whiilst still not quite there yet, have edged the right way.

So, is the ECM going to hold firm or set nerves a jangling?

 

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Ecm  at 120 all good so far

Edited by snowice
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

ECM still lovely, but not quite as peachy as the 12z at 144. Think we will get a nice 168 chart though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

ECM and GFS are both slight downgrades on last night with the uppers suggesting a cold spell rather than a severe spell in the reliable frame to Wednesday. GFS then goes on to move the high just north of UK. Cold but dry for most. Plenty time for upgrades  (maybe ecm will show this in its latter stage) but for now nothing beast from East like!

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Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think Gavin P rates it and the JMA long ranger as well.

Let's hope it's on the money!

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1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

ECM and GFS are both slight downgrades on last night with the uppers suggesting a cold spell rather than a severe spell in the reliable frame to Wednesday. GFS then goes on to move the high just north of UK. Cold but dry for most. Plenty time for upgrades  (maybe ecm will show this in its latter stage) but for now nothing beast from East like!

Not really, just yesterdays runs were something quite special.

 

You can only expect the charts from yesterday to go one way. I wouldn't call it a downgrade as such... 

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Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge

Morning ladies,

 

There is still time for the UKMO to move west a touch, it really is about fine margins.

Im looking forward to the FAX when they are updated, still on 12z atm.

 

Edited by Skyraker
East is west
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