Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[kold weather]

Ha the GFSP makes a west based NAO in a quick shot, gotta love it, the para REALLY doesn't want us to have sustained cold does it!

Still, cool little LP developing to our SW about to end the cold shot with a bang on the para...

[Bruegelian]

16 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Anyone noticed the worried tone and seriousness in stavs video forecast .

Sorry, missed that on beeb, do you mean Stav sounding worried & serious about cold weather for UK next week? 

edit: seems that's what it is. 

We seem to be almost there, fingers crossed.

Edited January 18, 2019 by Bruegelian

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Bruegelian said:

Sorry, missed that on beeb, do you mean Stav sounding worried & serious about cold weather for UK next week? 

Yes, probably because he predicted NW winds not Easterlies yesterday, although tbf i'm not sure these days the actual presenter has much say, i know they are not allowed to change the graphics themselves, begs the question then whether there is any point in them having meteorological qualifications but thats another story.

[northwestsnow]

Virtually no snow whasoever on fri or sat on latest euro4..

Quite a bit of rain around tho..

[cheeky_monkey]

looking at the charts and how things are unfolding..i would be tempted to pop down the bookies and put money on a sub zero Feb CET if i was back home.

Edited January 18, 2019 by cheeky_monkey

[danm]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like Exeter have gone with UKMET model so thats quite a sobering moment for me...

Ramp put away til 00z..

They almost always go with their own output on the FAXES, so wouldn’t get too worried about that.

[feb1991blizzard]

CPTEC is a stonker as well as CMA

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cptece_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

Edited January 18, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Geordiesnow]

As others have said its the speed of the low coming off the Eastern seaboard which could play a huge part on just how much amplification there will be in the Atlantic. I think it be foolish at this stage to rule out a flatter evolution as this could well happen and that could have negative impacts for any easterly.

 

Nevertheless some decent looking runs at times but its by no means cut and dry although from what i seen, easterly or no easterly we are on the colder side of the jet in the outlook and with a low pressure system coming down from Iceland bringing its own cold air then theres definately a snowfall risk there. 

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

The sun still has next to no strength in it, certainly i would always suggest mid Jan to mid Feb is prime time for a cold spell.

Im so hoping UKMO looks better come 00z runs...

 

Well the meto  long range models are forecasting easterlies in the longer term, whatever their  short range model is currently showing 5 to 6 days ahead so it will come round fully tomorrow I'm sure. 

Then we can all look forward to drowning in snow

Edited January 18, 2019 by SLEETY

[BlackburnChris]

40 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Well the meto  long range models are forecasting easterlies in the longer term, whatever their  short range model is currently showing 5 to 6 days ahead so it will come round fully tomorrow I'm sure. 

Then we can all look forward to drowning in snow

well latest News 24 forecast is saying at some point after Monday Mornings frost the fronts are gonna Stop and cause some sleet and snow, I assume that means its gonna bump into the colder air already in place and is gonna slow down. 

[SLEETY]

Welcome to the party icon, better late than never I guess

[essexweather]

Morning all

Hopefully a day of stability and/or upgrades ahead starting with the 00Z runs. Fingers crossed the UKMO edges closer towards the Euro today, as that's the only model worrying me at present.

 

GFS underway: 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

38 minutes ago, essexweather said:

Morning all

Hopefully a day of stability and/or upgrades ahead starting with the 00Z runs. Fingers crossed the UKMO edges closer towards the Euro today, as that's the only model worrying me at present.

 

GFS underway: 

It’s looking like it’s going to be a stupendous run. Big easterly incoming on this one! Just watching them heights sink through the floor over the med is better than any legal high!! 

Edited January 18, 2019 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[NO LONGER POSTING]

7 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

It’s looking like it’s going to be a stupendous. Big easterly incoming on this one! Just watching them heights sink through the floor over the med is better than any legal high!

 

Also note its now much snowier Monday into Tuesday... 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Surrey

[Mizzle]

12 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Was thinking the same, this could be an epic gfs 00z run. 

Also note its now much snowier Monday into Tuesday... 

So grateful to have you here at this time! I am a newbie who has waited up every night for the past week on these 0z runs. (And to my chagrin overslept yesterday and missed our 10min snowfall).

Watching this one roll out I am soooo excited but not confident enough to know I wasn't merely imagining it!!! Looks fabulous to my beginners eyes

 

Edit: Is this as good as it looks?

Edited January 18, 2019 by Mizzle
Can't spell and bravely added an image.

[SMU]

GFS pretty much a carbon copy of the 18z

UKMO goes from a 5/10 to a 8.5/10 which is the best positive

GEM goes from zero to hero with a stella run & ICON drops in as well...

A superb start to the day

beast confidence ~ 75%

[SMU]

10 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

So grateful to have you here at this time! I am a newbie who has waited up every night for the past week on these 0z runs. (And to my chagrin overslept yesterday and missed our 10min snowfall).

Watching this one roll out I am soooo excited but not confident enough to know I wasn't merely imagining it!!! Looks fabulous to my beginners eyes

 

Edit: Is this as good as it looks?

Yes thats the GFS quickly turns the rain to snow over the UK because of that wedge of deep upper cold 

[essexweather]

Big improvement from the UKMO this morning, decent snow event moving South-Eastwards out of Scotland late weekend. This was all rain on yesterdays 12Z over lower ground in the South.

850s are generally -5 to -7c across the East and Midlands this run in the latter stages 

Edited January 18, 2019 by essexweather

[AWD]

UKMO 0z still not fully singing from the EC sheet.  A bit better than yesterdays offerings but the trough over Europe drops quite far south, thus struggling advect any noteworthy upper air cold;

Like I said, a bit better but still room for improvements.

[SMU]

Just now, essexweather said:

Big improvement from the UKMO this morning, decent snow event moving South-Eastwards out of Scotland late weekend. This was all rain on yesterdays 12Z over lower ground in the South.

850s are generally -5 to -7c across the East and Midlands this run

@essexweather

Do you get a 168 chart?

[Daniel*]

GFS really isn’t dissimilar at all to its previous output shocking! Shockingly good. Again bringing extreme cold likely -20C in some Scottish glen snowfields where winds fall light. This looks odd here but a deepening low approaching a blizzard with @Catacol name on it.  

Edited January 18, 2019 by Daniel*

[essexweather]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

@essexweather

Do you get a 168 chart?

Can't access from home

Toggling the run through 120-132-144hr its obvious the high is edging further in from the Atlantic which is not good. If the ECM delivers shortly, you'd expect the 12Z UKMO to push everything further West. Baby steps!

[snowice]

Just now, essexweather said:

Can't access from home

Toggling the run through 120-132-144hr its obvious the high is edging further in from the Atlantic which is not good. If the ECM delivers shortly, you'd expect the 12Z UKMO to push everything further West. Baby steps!

UKmo has the low to far East Need to keep that Hp away from us. Don't want a toppler. 

.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

27 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

So grateful to have you here at this time! I am a newbie who has waited up every night for the past week on these 0z runs. (And to my chagrin overslept yesterday and missed our 10min snowfall).

Watching this one roll out I am soooo excited but not confident enough to know I wasn't merely imagining it!!! Looks fabulous to my beginners eyes

 

Edit: Is this as good as it looks?

Haha! When you got runs like this morning churning out, with what seems like a trend forming to very very cold, quite a few of us will be up now! 

As Steve says, we woke up yesterday to delight and the same today... 

What is going on? This never happens!! 

We now have snow events entering the reliable 

[DanBaynes]

5 minutes ago, snowice said:

UKmo has the low to far East Need to keep that Hp away from us. Don't want a toppler. 

.

I'm no expert but surely it wouldn't be a toppler, due to the low highs in main land Europe the high would turn into a scandi high pressure?

If I'm wrong if someone could put me right will help the learning process

Edited January 18, 2019 by DanBaynes