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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 18z showing more amplification at T132, here compared to 12z T138:

image.thumb.jpg.c0b7b0f0cdccecba217c06718d6b02db.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.fc78e020a8fb7ce5fcbf1e9cfe249a0e.jpg

All good!

Edit T180 doesn't go on unfortunately.   On to the 0z runs...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Better from the GFS 18z para but still doesn't look good enough, that LP coming off the states is still racing a lot further east than the operational run, IF we get that to slow down it will be game on. Close but I don't think its going to quite do it on the para run...but good step.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Location: Cardiff

The weather models are like a ride in an amusement park, and when you choose to go on it you think it's real because that's how powerful our minds are. The ride goes up and down, around and around, it has thrills and chills, and it's very brightly colored, and it's very loud, and it's fun for a while. Many people have been on the ride a long time, and they begin to wonder, "Hey, is this real, or is this just a ride?" And other people have remembered, and they come back to us and say, "Hey, don't worry, it's just one run. The trend is our friend, and it's looking bloody great!"

Bill Hicks (if he was into the weather)

20190117_183740.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

GFSP looks almost exactly like the GEFS mean for the same timeframe, massively improved though not quite as good as GFS/ECM it's certainly a big step in the right direction after consistently being poor (good to see the GFS never changes)

GFSYES.thumb.png.3d3ceeebc8f5a33a9190e7d13aea9eda.png

UKMO looking increasingly isolated this evening

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO now looking pretty isolated tonight....

But we have been here before, im not trying to put a dampner on this but we really should be wary ..

Fingers crossed for 00z..

 

Agree, but this summer the UKMO didn’t do well in Hurricane season. ECM was supreme, even 7 days out, which with tropical storms is no mean feat, never mind cat4/5 hurricanes. UKMO does tend to struggle upstream when there’s a lot of noise, so I’m cautiously optimistic. I don’t have any factual evidence of that, but Hurricane season is my 2nd favourite time of year, so it just sticks in my mind.

ENS looking good still, although a bit more spread towards the end than of late. But nothing really to grumble about too much 

A0D106A8-ED16-4398-BD14-221CF064AAB7.thumb.gif.38546fdea35299d543139f3eebec8ef5.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Agree, but this summer the UKMO didn’t do well in Hurricane season. ECM was supreme, even 7 days out, which with tropical storms is no mean feat, never mind cat4/5 hurricanes. UKMO does tend to struggle upstreamwhen there’s a lot of noise, so I’m cautiously optimistic. I don’t have any factual evidence of that, but Hurricane season is my 2nd favourite time of year, so it just sticks in my mind.

No your qjuite right, the ECM destroyed the GFS/UKMO several times, especially with Florence which it tried to recurve at every opportunity, the ECM held firm with it.

The GFSP is SO close, probably needs one more decent westward shift from here and it will look good.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin

Probably go all pear shaped again tomorrow. Enjoyed the anticipatiion and excitement of the models this evening. Not evem going to think about going beyond t144 Good night everybody

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

18z run can be described as extremely cold and snowy, with the thickness values below 510 dm in southeast at times, as to the U.S. low, that has to go where large scale features determine, it's not the other way around, with the low "interfering" with some otherwise possible pattern. May be an unprovable hypothesis but the next step in that sort of reasoning is to "explain" a weather pattern "because of the jet stream." This sort of reasoning keeps us a long way from developing real science. The question to explore is really, what causes the weather pattern? Then the details fall into place. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Agree, but this summer the UKMO didn’t do well in Hurricane season. ECM was supreme, even 7 days out, which with tropical storms is no mean feat, never mind cat4/5 hurricanes. UKMO does tend to struggle upstreamwhen there’s a lot of noise, so I’m cautiously optimistic. I don’t have any factual evidence of that, but Hurricane season is my 2nd favourite time of year, so it just sticks in my mind.

ENS looking good still, although a bit more spread towards the end than of late. But nothing really to grumble about too much 

A0D106A8-ED16-4398-BD14-221CF064AAB7.thumb.gif.38546fdea35299d543139f3eebec8ef5.gif

And the mean is still the same apart from right at the end, so because a lot more runs are going higher, a lot more are also going lower as well, much more look like they are supporting these ridiculous -5c max for most of England type op runs we've seen today.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And the mean is still the same apart from right at the end, so because a lot more runs are going higher, a lot more are also going lower as well, much more look like they are supporting these ridiculous -5c max for most of England type op runs we've seen today.

It’s certainly a tighter cold cluster 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

And just to round off the day nicely, a loadf more runs on the GEFS are going to have a good go at a Greeny post 300.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And the mean is still the same apart from right at the end, so because a lot more runs are going higher, a lot more are also going lower as well, much more look like they are supporting these ridiculous -5c max for most of England type op runs we've seen today.

Worth noting they will be night time temps, maybe just above freezing in the day - not too bad. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Ok, KEY period to watch is between 84-96hrs. That is when  the para accelerates the LP off to the NE whilst the GFS op and ECM hangs back.

Once that is agreed upon things will rapidly slip into place. I'd probably suggest that tomorrow MAY be the key day as we'd be near 48hrs by that point.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Mucka said:

Worth noting they will be night time temps, maybe just above freezing in the day - not too bad. 

No - im talking about a good few that have max temps just below freezing - been in London that would mean you could take off another few degrees without the urban heat effect in rural SE England - presume they are those runs backing the ECM 12z / GFS 18z op runswith the frigid Easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - im talking about a good few that have max temps just below freezing - been in London that would mean you could take off another few degrees without the urban heat effect in rural SE England - presume they are those runs backing the ECM 12z / GFS 18z op runswith the frigid Easterly.

I haven't seen any output support -5 max daytime temps but with snow cover there would be ice days and subzero max daytime temps on some of the ECM/GFS output which is all that matters for snow retention.

 

EDIT

I will add that temps would also very quickly drop away late afternoon and only slowly recover from the mornings. 

Obviously the longer the cold air and any snow cover is in place then the colder it will become at the surface all things being equal.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Agree, but this summer the UKMO didn’t do well in Hurricane season. ECM was supreme, even 7 days out, which with tropical storms is no mean feat, never mind cat4/5 hurricanes. UKMO does tend to struggle upstream when there’s a lot of noise, so I’m cautiously optimistic. I don’t have any factual evidence of that, but Hurricane season is my 2nd favourite time of year, so it just sticks in my mind.

ENS looking good still, although a bit more spread towards the end than of late. But nothing really to grumble about too much 

A0D106A8-ED16-4398-BD14-221CF064AAB7.thumb.gif.38546fdea35299d543139f3eebec8ef5.gif

Where do you find these charts? Do they have them for other UK cities as well (I'm in Edinburgh, as my username may suggest )?

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Well this is what makes model watching so good. Honestly like watching a thriller football match at times, flipping one way, then another. Fascinating viewing. 

The intense cold is essentially dependent on the behaviour of that storm coming out of the US. Which model handles those most accurately? As the experts have said, ECM. The ECM shows that low heading south down the UK which results in a much better synoptic set up for us. Looks like the GFS has finally gotten with the programme and fallen in line with the ECM

The UKMO is still the odd one out. However, we have an SSW, favourable teleconnections, low solar activity. It seems as though everything points towards a cold spell and because the ECM handles those storms better, and the cold spell is dependent on the storm, I think the logical step is to back the ECM on this one. Expect the UKMO to come on board soon. Nothing is ever guaranteed in this business but my eggs are in the ECM basket. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, edinburgh_1992 said:

Where do you find these charts? Do they have them for other UK cities as well (I'm in Edinburgh, as my username may suggest )?

No but the best i can do is this.

https://meteologix.com/ie/forecast/2650225-edinburgh/ensemble/euro

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
4 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

Well this is what makes model watching so good. Honestly like watching a thriller football match at times, flipping one way, then another. Fascinating viewing. 

The intense cold is essentially dependent on the behaviour of that storm coming out of the US. Which model handles those most accurately? As the experts have said, ECM. The ECM shows that low heading south down the UK which results in a much better synoptic set up for us. Looks like the GFS has finally gotten with the programme and fallen in line with the ECM

The UKMO is still the odd one out. However, we have an SSW, favourable teleconnections, low solar activity. It seems as though everything points towards a cold spell and because the ECM handles those storms better, and the cold spell is dependent on the storm, I think the logical step is to back the ECM on this one. Expect the UKMO to come on board soon. Nothing is ever guaranteed in this business but my eggs are in the ECM basket. 

Looks good doesnt it. The easterly is around a week long on gfs! Haven't seen anything like it se would be buried?  Ecm very similar 

Edited by snowfish1
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The 18z GFS ensembles are better BUT still a large variety of solutions at 144hrs, everything from the Azores high pilling into Europe, through to a strong Greenland High setting up and everything inbetween. No real agreement still, though more loaded towards cold than earlier suites for sure.

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