Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

According to the GFS 18z, much of the UK spends between T162 to T384 under -8 uppers! That corresponds to 8/9 days in a row with temperatures not getting above freezing... almost!

IF the 18z came off, I'm really struggling to see any real slackening of the cold flow before at least the 5th of Feb, the jet flow is fracturing upstream again at 360hrs again and will just re-enforce the upper high over Scandi plus maybe give us another snow attempt from SW.

[feb1991blizzard]

These runs are just getting more and more ridiculous - they really are bordering on 1947 standards.

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

According to the GFS 18z, much of the UK spends between T162 to T384 under -8 uppers! That corresponds to 8/9 days in a row with temperatures not getting above freezing... almost!

Would be nominally +2 degsC, which is cold enough.

[Ice Day]

OK, not sure if any of us can take much more excitement, but the GFSP is looking much improved at 96 as well.

18z  12z 

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The EC46 has pretty much the entire month of February covered with Northern blocking and Euro troughing.. 

Probably the best update yet

The best ever 46 with the entire 46 days uppers being well below average!  T2’s will show by the morning 

infact, days 39/46 is now a height/slp mean/anom copy of days 18/25. Previous couple of runs relaxed the euro trough beyond days 35/38. 

[ukpaul]

A fascinating run, with a resolute cold pool over us.

The way that the Canadian lobe of the PV is allowed to throw low after low without trough disruption looks unlikely, though. Surely it won't leave it until the last couple of frames the way that the 18z does?

[Ben Sainsbury]

Final post from me, I'm having way too much fun over a GFS chart.

Am I right in thinking the down-welling of easterly winds in the troposphere has fully occurred by this point

Edited January 17, 2019 by Ben Sainsbury

[northwestsnow]

UKMO now looking pretty isolated tonight....

But we have been here before, im not trying to put a dampner on this but we really should be wary ..

Fingers crossed for 00z..

 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

OK, not sure if any of us can take much more excitement, but the GFSP is looking much improved at 96 as well.

18z  12z 

Let’s hope so. It’s been the only one of the main models to show no easterly at all. Bizzare, given that earlier this winter it was the only one throwing out wintry charts.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The best ever 46 with the entire 46 days uppers being well below average!  T2’s will show by the morning 

infact, days 39/46 is now a height/slp mean/anom copy of days 18/25. Previous couple of runs relaxed the euro trough beyond days 35/38. 

Just for a giggle do they have lying snow charts on those runs? - could be talking quite widely across even lowland England and Wales in metres rather than inches if there was!!!!!

Edited January 17, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The best ever 46 with the entire 46 days uppers being well below average!  T2’s will show by the morning 

infact, days 39/46 is now a height/slp mean/anom copy of days 18/25. Previous couple of runs relaxed the euro trough beyond days 35/38. 

Intersting because the 18z GFS also looks like there is literally no way out of the cold pattern, the jet keeps fracturing around 50W and re-enforcing the Scandi high, indeed right at the end strong suggestions of a cross polar flow trying to set-up as well.

Does show though that even if this attempt doesn't work, we likely will have others.

ps, shouldn't say this, but the 47 winter only really truly took off around this same point (I know that there were cold spells, but not as legendary.)

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just for a giggle do they have lying snow charts on those runs? - could be talking quite widely across even lowland England and Wales in metres rather than inches if there was!!!!!

I’d prefer if they were truthful

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just for a giggle do they have lying snow charts on those runs? - could be talking quite widely across even lowland England and Wales in metres rather than inches if there was!!!!!

Not outside of the USA on the site I use 

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO now looking pretty isolated tonight....

But we have been here before, im not trying to put a dampner on this but we really should be wary ..

Fingers crossed for 00z..

 

Exeter have previously drawn the day 5 fax away  from ukgm if the ukgm is a clear outlier solution at days 4/5..  clearly it isn’t an outlier solution so won’t be modified much, if at all 

[FetchCB]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ps, shouldn't say this, but the 47 winter only really truly took off around this same point (I know that there were cold spells, but not as legendary.)

21 Jan 

[Nick F]

Just checked in, nice to see 12z GFS and especially UKMO maybe just a wobble, not much to add than what's already been analysed from the 18z GFS other than to say these late nights staying up for the 18z and EC46 too tonight are taking their toll! But worth it given what the models are offering. I might even tell my 7 year old son that we could get the sledge action soon.

Also, before I go and get watery-eyed over the easterly charts again, just to mention before the easterly onset, quite an active front pushing southeast Monday night ahead of a deep low passing slowly by Iceland, quite cold air for a northwesterly flowing in behind the front, sourced from a very cold Greenland/NE Canada, could bring some back edge snow - GFS shows widespread back-edge snow, EC mainly the hills.

GFS

EC

 

Edited January 17, 2019 by Nick F

[kold weather]

GFSP has the Iceland LP quite a lot stronger than the op/ECM at 96hrs, down below 975mbs and similar in strength to ICON. Be interesting to see how it evolves from there, I think its probably overdoing that low a little anyway.

[Met4Cast]

GFS(P) seems somewhat better earlier on, if that switches to the cold solution too then I think we can be a little more confident that the UKMO could have it wrong, though I'm never fully confident with the UKMO is sitting alone saying no because more often than not, it seems to be proved right 

[snowking]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

UKMO now looking pretty isolated tonight....

But we have been here before, im not trying to put a dampner on this but we really should be wary ..

Fingers crossed for 00z..

 

I’m not even so concerned about individual op runs showing varying solutions, I think that’s just to be expected - we should be treating every op run as part of an overal suite of ensembles right now

What concerns me right now is the separation of energy moving SE across us next week leaving that gap for heights to ridge in to, and I really doubt that will be resolved until at least the weekend - I’m with @nick sussex on this, we are in dangerous spawn of satan shortwave potential territory here....I’ll be much calmer if NWP still backs the EC/GFS solution come Sunday.

But what we can take comfort from is that the overall longwave pattern will remain conducive to an amplified pattern with a NW European trough for some time it seems, so even if we miss this early opportunity, others will not be far away - let’s just hope we don’t need to rely on this and can see things work out at the first bite

[Fiona Robertson]

OK, you lot have done it again. I'm suffering from information overload and every time I try to catch up you all post again. Can someone please confirm if my grasp is right. Cold temps below freezing nailed on for next week, Tuesday onwards. Snow at a decent probability, but not quite nailed on. Quite a lot of snow debatable and dependent on region.

[Ben Sainsbury]

GFS P 18z, by T102 it is clear that much more energy is being sent southwards in comparison to 12z.

[booferking]

Looks like the FV3 might get there this time in better position 96hr.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, snowking said:

 

What concerns me right now is the separation of energy moving SE across us next week leaving that gap for heights to ridge in to, and I really doubt that will be resolved until at least the weekend - I’m with @nick sussex on this, we are in dangerous spawn of satan shortwave potential territory here....I’ll be much calmer if NWP still backs the EC/GFS solution come Sunday.

But what we can take comfort from is that the overall longwave pattern will remain conducive to an amplified pattern with a NW European trough for some time it seems, so even if we miss this early opportunity, others will not be far away - let’s just hope we don’t need to rely on this and can see things work out at the first bite

Yeah I do agree with you on the shortwave thing, that is probably the number 1 risk.

Also as you say the pattern looks pretty prolonged to me, so even if we do miss the first shot there is a fair shot at another. The AO TANKS big time towards the end of this run, that's the 3rd run in a row to smash down that AO around the 30th, so I think even if we do miss this shot, if we are not in the midst of a prolonged cold spell by the 5th I'd be stunned, and we would have been ultra unlucky.

[Ice Day]

GFS Mean at 150 is looking very good.

The Control run wants to get in on the act as well at 150

 

[MattStoke]

GFSP more amplified and the trough diving better over the UK. Could be a good run this*

*Don’t shoot me if I’ve jinxed it.

Edited January 17, 2019 by MattStoke

[Met4Cast]

Laughable. For the second time today the GEFS mean has flipped

This model is supposed to be one of the top performers in the world & yet it's performing like NAVGEM has hacked it.