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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

VERY snowy SE/EA on this run, as are usual places exposed to a NE/ENE airflow. Even the raw GFS picks up on widespread 2-4cms, which would probably translate to quite abit more in a higher resolution.

Add a zero to the 2 & the 4 ...

Kent / EA buried on the 18z ... 

If only the UKMO comes on board tomorrow !

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think he meant the other bloke was being sarcastic perhaps.

Ah I see, well sarcasm is ill advised in this forum, it moves to fast. 

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

18z would produce a memorable winter spell of weather for the UK...

One for the record book infact..

We can dream LOL.

image.thumb.png.49697f5ddff11ec058d4c4d3b7aa410b.png

Still going a week on sunday..

Missing Data meet US Shutdown 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted

Pub run T234:

image.thumb.jpg.9c91c40846b6152fde927b8920efd03f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.03e3e1d9e4beebb77582c80c68851a78.jpg

This run ramping up the cold evolution even more, I think this is going to happen folks, precise form subject to change but the evidence in favour of a severe cold spell starting mid next week is becoming more and more compelling.

 

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

18z would produce a memorable winter spell of weather for the UK...

One for the record book infact..

We can dream LOL.

image.thumb.png.49697f5ddff11ec058d4c4d3b7aa410b.png

Still going a week on sunday..

Give it until early next week before we can say that a strong easterly with huge amounts of snow is nailed-on, but I think we can agree that a cold spell is going to happen, with ECM and GFS agreeing.  Tomorrow's UKMO will show us a great deal; as has been said earlier, we need it to agree with ECM.

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
28 minutes ago, shaky said:

Scrap that its fantastic at 138 hours!!also snow more widely midlands and  east anglia tomorrow!!

Until the next run and then back to snow then rain then sleet, why take every single run as though it’s a sure thing. Let’s get the cold here and see where we go in a few days instead of worrying about will it snow in a few days etc. It’s getting colder and that is exciting enough to just be in with a shot surely

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Jet pattern at 240hrs doesn't exactly scream this one toppling either, I suspect the Scandinavian high is going to prove quite resolute in FI as well, also keep watching the arctic to see if a channel opens up there as well...

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its marginal yes - marginal between siberian style cold or North Central Canadian style cold but not marginal between rain and snow.

Did someone mention Siberia....SSW....a Sudden Siberian Winter...well looks like the SSW is finally going to show it effects and at a grand scale at that ?...love a good pub run me

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Give it until early next week before we can say that a strong easterly with huge amounts of snow is nailed-on, but I think we can agree that a cold spell is going to happen, with ECM and GFS agreeing.  Tomorrow's UKMO will show us a great deal; as has been said earlier, we need it to agree with ECM.

Looks like Exeter have gone with UKMET model so thats quite a sobering moment for me...

Ramp put away til 00z..

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
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Posted

The thermals may be required for work and that’s at mid day

212335A6-8F42-4092-AC79-8716A89E4570.png

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Now, look at this at 288.  This would be a massive event if came off as modelled.....which of course it won't. Crazy, bonkers run, love it!

image.thumb.png.c6f7051fbb29696d00418e600364e695.png  image.thumb.png.3823f71a34512a251d3d70458fc09407.png

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 Looks like Exeter have gone with UKMET model so thats quite a sobering moment for me...

Ramp put away til 00z..

They usually do when there's this much uncertainty though..

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like Exeter have gone with UKMET model so thats quite a sobering moment for me...

Ramp put away til 00z..

Well if you drink copious amounts of T246 then you will have a very very sore head.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

They usually do when there's this much uncertainty though..

Not sure, i have seen them tweek FAX charts before, sometime against their model..

Either way im reserving judgement until tomorrow..

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The thermals may be required for work and that’s at mid day

212335A6-8F42-4092-AC79-8716A89E4570.png

There’s nothing nice about that lol it’s bloody freeeezzing. Of course if it’s white it will be better but probably even colder

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GFS T300 FI for fun:

image.thumb.jpg.8634a2c7121e217f8aa9917fdd2809ab.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ff268d1438c7970b446e7ecc08d68fe2.jpg

Think there is a playoff in the coming set up between COLD and SNOW, which do people want? I'll just leave that there...

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shetland islands Contributor

shetland islands

Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like Exeter have gone with UKMET model so thats quite a sobering moment for me...

Ramp put away til 00z..

Yes and their website 5-day forecast doesn't really support widespread snowfall as of yet.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
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Posted (edited)

I wouldn't be overly worried about the fax charts at this point, it does feel like the GFS/ECM ops have got the scent for that torugh dropping down. When they both agree like that its normally a strong sign. Doesn't mean we are 100% locked on for cold depending on how much energy comes from the vortex in Canada, but its high percentage.

18z GFS looks very....86/47 in terms of cold....Scandi high is going nowhere.

Edited by kold weather
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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like Exeter have gone with UKMET model so thats quite a sobering moment for me...

Ramp put away til 00z..

Of course they will

even we all know more runs needed for confidence.

to much risk to reveal this possible outcome to the general public.

but wow not often we can sit and watch this amazing possible outcome

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Premiere Neige Community Regular

Premiere Neige

Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
Posted
10 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The EC46 has pretty much the entire month of February covered with Northern blocking and Euro troughing.. 

Probably the best update yet

Beijing Climate Centre model has northern blocking in place through most of February as well. Don't know if that model is any good in terms of verification stats.

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

According to the GFS 18z, much of the UK spends between T162 to T384 under -8 uppers! That corresponds to 8/9 days in a row with temperatures not getting above freezing... almost!

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James Gold Contributor

James Gold

Posted
  • Location: Bromley
  • Location: Bromley
Posted
1 minute ago, Premier Neige said:

Beijing Climate Centre model has northern blocking in place through most of February as well. Don't know if that model is any good in terms of verification stats.

I saw somewhere it was the best at long range predicting last years cold in February/March, so I guess that’s something at least 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Regarding the UKMO fax chart I swear I have heard they never alter it at t120 it’s just the same as the op . Don’t know if I’m talking complete rubbish , I’m sure someone will put me right ?? 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Beijing Climate Centre model has northern blocking in place through most of February as well. Don't know if that model is any good in terms of verification stats.

I think Gavin P rates it and the JMA long ranger as well.

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