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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Some good looking instability coming into the Kent area and also into the Wash, favoured spots but good to see anyway, flow is pretty cyclonic in nature which will help at least in the first 36hrs or so.

Could be a double shot as well with the cold pool coming SW from Scandinavia at 168hrs.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Oh I don't know Karlos, I think I could see a bit more.... 162

That pool of frigid air is taking dead aim at us!

Oh alright then, if I must :air_kiss:

5CBC3517-3E21-446E-919A-BA7FBE155881.thumb.png.69230842dcc6a39a386f11dde0903027.png

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

IF You think its good up until now - not 100% sure but if what i thinks going to happen happens, that will make the 150 -170 charts looks tame

image.thumb.png.044e8bc60bd82bc6bcc8cffbe7256ae2.png

I know what you're thinking and it's looking like it will!!!!!

image.thumb.png.dc18c7f09c2070e4317613c95a121bf1.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Swearing AGAINing hell

GFS.thumb.png.ca94d8e1d506e45db0be7f16af10db44.png

Calling it now, the entire GEFS has done another 180

Yes good to see GFS joining ECM and CMA......we now need to see tjese holding steady and importantly UKMO coming on board in the morning....all to play for and at this stage looking good 

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Get agreement from the main models and see it repeated in the morning. Those morning runs can bring a terrible hangover!!!! ☠️

Given the time ranges though very encouraging and for once 'proper' cold in the mix. Also its Jan not March this time!

First snow of the year here this morning!!

 

Edited by Jason M
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, evans1892 said:

Slightly marginal air coming our way....

GFS1.png

Errrrmmmm there’s not much marginal about -8 uppers ❄️

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

With all the interest in the short to mid range right now with the GFS Coming out I'd like to say longer term once more looks fantastic as Karlos posted with those EC46 charts. Dare I say a modern day slightly watered down 1947❄

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Here comes the trigger low that will hopefully set us into a long term stabe Greenland high type pattern swinging off the US coast. Will probably push the Scandi high towards our shores and make for a VERY cold set-up for the 26-28th Jan.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London
5 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Why is this called a pub run please ?

I think because this used to be near closing time for UK pubs, so you come home after the pub and checked out the 18z GFS.

It may also be that it was a bit crazy sometimes with the output as if it had been drinking so comparing it to someone who has got drunk.

It's one of those reasons I'm sure.

Either way, all the outputs are looking more and more likely that we are about to enter a special period for model watching and it's hard not to get excited with what's being shown.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Here comes the trigger low that will hopefully set us into a long term stabe Greenland high type pattern swinging off the US coast. Will probably push the Scandi high towards our shores and make for a VERY cold set-up for the 26-28th Jan.

What trigger low are you on about? The one moving off into Eastern Europe?

ALERT: -14 uppers along the East Coast of UK!

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

-14 uppers approaching at 198........  Splendid stuff, everything else just for fun.

image.thumb.png.16ffd7eab594aad986d999ba5370df73.png

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