Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[kold weather]

GFS op still advertising decent backedge snow for Tuesday. not sure would settle but I'm sure it would on  higher ground.

PS, GFS IS also giving snowfall tomorrow for some, indeed very snowy for EA for rush hour...

Edited January 17, 2019 by kold weather

[cyclonic happiness]

a good mix of snow as the front pushes east tomorrow  especially with higher ground

[Ice Day]

OK, let's see a comparison between the 18z vs the ECM and UKMO at 120:

GFS    ECM   UKMO 

Cigarette paper between them, more energy on the 18z digging into Europe than on the 12z. All good so far.

[FetchCB]

2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Rest of 18z and tomorrow's UKMO runs are critical to determine whether the cold period will be merely chilly or something more interesting.

The weather will be the weather.... model runs do not determine the weather 

That as an aside given the proximity of really cold air to our east small changes that the models will not have resolved may result in as you say either chilly or something more interesting but that, given the extended outlook is likely to be the case throughout February not just tomorrow 

[Singularity]

A little pain for more gain perhaps; I've noticed that the Tue trough disrupting less tends to, provided it still does drop south, set up a Euro trough that's better positioned to drive the deep cold our way from the east during the following days.

[kold weather]

Indeed worth noting the GFS operational now gives 3-5cms across a broad area in S.Midlands and into E.Anglia. Well worth watching and maybe a hint of what will come on Tuesday, especially as this has completely caught the models out.

[The Eagle]

18z looks a marginal improvement so far for prospects.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Look at the Arctic High spreading towards Greenland, I'm confident that we'll see an easterly here. Hope we can see the heights out in the Atlantic link up.

Edited January 17, 2019 by Ben Sainsbury

[SMU]

GFS not far off a carbon cooy of ECM @126 !!

Bring it on

[SMU]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’m just telling you what the raw ec data shows - Steve is looking at uppers and flow and making a judgement..... he could be right 

This was my forecast

[Banbury]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Way too far east for snow on Tuesday, needs to slide west of the UK, as the cold air will be on the eastern side, standard showery setup, wintry on hills, snow chances start after then, see if the E'ly develops

PPN across the UK

[MattStoke]

Wasn't sure about the 18z at first but now it's looking more amplified, with high pressure pushing more towards Greenland and the trough better tilted over the UK.

Edited January 17, 2019 by MattStoke

[Ice Day]

Out to 138, I think it's looking very similar to the ECM at 144.  This could be good????

GFS  ECM 

[shaky]

Scrap that its fantastic at 138 hours!!also snow more widely midlands and  east anglia tomorrow!!

[karlos1983]

Looks fine to me.... 144 is enough for me and the gfs 

[SMU]

Wow tonights forecast 144 blend - The CMA & ECM & 18z GFS lol !

@yamkin

Never thought Id ever write that -

[weirpig]

Better run than the GFS 12z  very intense low over Italy  

[kold weather]

Even before any easterly sets in the GFS 18z shows a fairly decent convective streamer setting up from that NNW airflow into W.Midlands, even makes it down to central southern England so looks a fairly convective set-up.

No doubt we'd get some streamer activity from the east once winds bends.

Good run thus far.

[Mike Poole]

Oh my holy s**t T150 on pub run

Q.E.D?

[snowbob]

Yamkin Is all ramped out @Steve Murr

seriously amazing pub run so far

Edited January 17, 2019 by snowbob

[Met4Cast]

Swearing AGAINing hell

Calling it now, the entire GEFS has done another 180

[blizzard81]

GFS joins the ECM party

[A Frayed Knot]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Oh my holy s**t T150 on pub run

Q.E.D?

Why is this called a pub run please ?

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Looks fine to me.... 144 is enough for me and the gfs 

 

1

Oh I don't know Karlos, I think I could see a bit more.... 162

   

That pool of frigid air is taking dead aim at us!

[Bazza118]

Left work at 6 and it was on page 217 and now it's  page 242 . Just hope when I look it's positive posts and it's not all gone pear shaped. Time to catch up .....