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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

tomorrow night showing a few more hashed lines across the country, maybe more snow than expected in the 18z?

 

snow.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, Banbury said:

Do you write for the Express ROFL

Hardly snow events , just watched the forecast, boy you've bigged it up. There is no denying the Beeb have followed ECM but snow events ?? they didn't show anything of the sort 

You don’t understand the Penrith micro climate! 

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

cannot see snow this Sat, maybe 26th? as extended forecast? as EC shows

This could be what their referring to 

F16843A9-737E-4092-AD29-C82B3E264439.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

It's a little difficult to know how good ICON is because it doesn't go far enough, though there is less energy heading S/SE around 120 compared to the previous run so it probably wouldn't have looked great!

Hopefully we see a full swing back to cold from the GFS, I wouldn't bet against it given the wild swings in outputs at the moment.

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

there currently seems little prospect of decent snowfall on Tuesday. Ec has some on northern hills and Ukmo raw data is showing some light snow in Leeds but light rain in Manchester ..... with the trough drop still unclear, probably not worth analysis at the moment - could look different tomorrow. whereas if the easterly to follow verifies, that looks like ‘streamer time’ and we could also see disturbances headed sw from Scandinavia 

I'm sure Steve Murr posted a few hours ago a good event for West Midlands to Wales for Tuesday.... so some disagreement

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

The niggling feeling I have is that all our cold eggs are in one basket - the ecm basket. Tomorrow will be very revealing as the ukmo will come into view of the critical 5 to 6 day timeframe. We need this model on board before we half open the prosecco

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

there currently seems little prospect of decent snowfall on Tuesday. Ec has some on northern hills and Ukmo raw data is showing some light snow in Leeds but light rain in Manchester ..... with the trough drop still unclear, probably not worth analysis at the moment - could look different tomorrow. whereas if the easterly to follow verifies, that looks like ‘streamer time’ and we could also see disturbances headed sw from Scandinavia 

Blue, did you really just come out with this wisdom?

Next week is fully game chase on unless something seriously goes wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

It's now the last post on the previous page, but I suggest some of you read it?!

This is not the place for chatting about the BBC weather forecasts, or any other non-model related chatter. Posts are being hidden quickly..

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

What ? its the same mate 985mb   at 84h   chill

Yeh checked next frame and it is the same but the low around iceland is slightly further east!!

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Rest of 18z and tomorrow's UKMO runs are critical to determine whether the cold period will be merely chilly or something more interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

ECM showing snow tomorrow too, i'm wondering whether we're missing what's on our doorstep and looking too far ahead 

snow.png

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

12z GFS did this when it split the vortex filaments on the ridge > early it leaves residual energy in NE Canada, then a filament juices and attracts the long lead TPV segment from central europe, by 192 we are at an unusual situation...

image.thumb.png.5dcf5d1734c904ed5e1ec48449301e9c.pngimage.thumb.png.7a545bcc1757e9cffbd9f36deaaa54d5.pngimage.thumb.png.a8666835297c38986504c914bec2366d.png

Later the break plays through and flattens, before eventually leading to the 'all roads lead to cold'.. this follows the jet flattening at 192hrs

image.thumb.png.9653d9e99d20063788054bb84956f93d.png

Then the break..

image.thumb.png.83ac6cdd9bf6de576f0aceb33942b179.png

This first carve out of energy on the first image means so much for the play through of the run and speak to why the 0-5 day time frame creates the dynamic and time stamps going forward.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Loving the commentary this evening guys- 

18Z looks great to me, although Blues post a little concerning wrt tues- 

 

Just about to say looks great, low separting south of iceland should be a good run.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
8 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I'm sure Steve Murr posted a few hours ago a good event for West Midlands to Wales for Tuesday.... so some disagreement

I’m just telling you what the raw ec data shows - Steve is looking at uppers and flow and making a judgement..... he could be right 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

GFS slightly further West compared with the 12z run, better ridging as a result

GOOD.thumb.png.46ed4dc8935884f8c7bf5d375a62f69b.png

Might be just enough to tip the balance back.. we'll see

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Loving the commentary this evening guys- 

18Z looks great to me, although Blues post a little concerning wrt tues- 

 

Way too far east for snow on Tuesday, needs to slide west of the UK, as the cold air will be on the eastern side, standard showery setup, wintry on hills, snow chances start after then, see if the E'ly develops

gfs-0-108.png?18

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Loving the commentary this evening guys- 

18Z looks great to me, although Blues post a little concerning wrt tues- 

 

Wouldn’t worry about Tuesday. Snow is hard enough to forecast 12 hours out. That LP track will keep changing as the time nears.

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