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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
18 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

sure looks cold on here!

DxIqieWX4AA6HF4.jpeg

 

As Karlos said, this is the 2m temperature anomaly.  If my eyesight is correct, that shows the temperature in the UK and Ireland anywhere between 4 - 9 degrees below average.  That'll do for starters!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 

They are 2 meter temperature anomaly charts not 850’s

whoops im sorry. Been looking at so many lovely charts my heads gone!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
10 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

EC Ens up to 6 on the clusters, but the key stand out is the blocking platform across them, atlantic is primed, AAM has spiked precisely when the downwelling advertised on the paint drip connects -  Genuinely cannot see a road back to the flatter solutions from here. I think 'That ECM' will get usurped in the not too distant future.

Nope, though what might be possible is there is a little too much pressure from the upper PV over Ne Canada which flattens the HP towards the UK, at least until we get some downwelling around the 28-30th of January. Indeed that is what the ECM control run is showing on the 12z ensembles. However it is certainly looking promising.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, knocker said:

Although there are some differences with this evening's NOAA and the EPS ext mean, the Atlantic ridge (or not) and thus the precise position of the Euro trough, they are  very much in the same ball park so it's worth noting the conclusion of the prognostic discussion.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 500-HPA HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

As previously mentioned surface analysis tricky and to be sorted, but unsettled and colder than average will suffice for now

814day_03.thumb.gif.2ce1062c8d2e322df9acf5d231334b72.gif8-13.thumb.png.42addee2aeb49c25362f351edfbf3c1f.png

 

I surmise that that mid Atlantic ridge is getting stronger towards the back end of the D8-13 period and would likely have more of a Greenland component to it by D15 on the eps

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Nope, though what might be possible is there is a little too much pressure from the upper PV over Ne Canada which flattens the HP towards the UK, at least until we get some downwelling around the 28-30th of January. Indeed that is what the ECM control run is showing on the 12z ensembles. However it is certainly looking promising.

Agree, when I say no flatter runs I mean in eventuality vs. 'They won't appear at all'... the jet will be juice via the TPV and various filaments ejecting via trough disruption -  for clarity this is not the case of the HP predication sloping off and slugging into Europe, there is a definitive wave guide that wants to dial in on Iberia, this when it first appeared advertised sliders.. it wants to repeat too.. in fact the theme of repetition is looking pretty extreme right now, JMA last night at the outer envelope of severity. Control is watch out for sure, however I think the drain of the NE vortex lobe will appreciate once it kicks off proper disruption.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Although there are some differences with this evening's NOAA and the EPS ext mean, the Atlantic ridge (or not) and thus the precise position of the Euro trough, they are  very much in the same ball park so it's worth noting the conclusion of the prognostic discussion.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 500-HPA HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

As previously mentioned surface analysis tricky and to be sorted, but unsettled and colder than average will suffice for now

814day_03.thumb.gif.2ce1062c8d2e322df9acf5d231334b72.gif8-13.thumb.png.42addee2aeb49c25362f351edfbf3c1f.png

 

That old myth of we will get what the US get`s isn`t actually far off the mark currently, well apart from intensity but the jist is right there on the chart you posted. Lovely height wedge you often dream of winter after winter... crossing every digit I have for this.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well a great day on the model roller coaster!  0z runs very encouraging. 6z GFS beyond epic! Some continuity on 12z with some uncertainty.  So where do we stand right now?  

First, I think we have to acknowledge that there is a tipping point in whether the high lat block establishes early next week and kicks off UK winter.  It's a will it or won't it and it all depends on that storm on the US east coast.  From what I've read here and elsewhere ECM models this area best, so I'd weight ECM and ensembles higher than other output for the moment.  

Second, uncertainty, there's a lot, in my own profession uncertainty is very important (nothing to do with weather, by the way).  We take a Bayesian approach, and what that means applying that to the current model output is this: say there was no SSW and current weather was bog standard average, the 'prior' state.  We might now look at these current runs and conclude as has often happened in the past that the cold signal might have a reasonable probability of going down the toilet.

But start from the different premise (prior) that we know a very strong SSW happened on 1 Jan, the cold evolution is what we expect two and a half weeks down the line, so if we filter our view of the current output, the cold blocked outlook in the model output looks much more certain.  

Then we've got the wildcard of the US storm, but if that went bad for us - it may - if ECM is not correct, then that would probably only delay the cold evolution by a few days.

Any road, fascinating model watching!

Quite right Mike, code development is the same, which is my life , Bayesian approach should really be adopted to everything we do lol. Quite prudent in this situation as you have pointed out! 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening ! A easterly next week  looks certain. .watch this space..

ecmt850.240-6.png

h850t850eu-11.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Interestingly just a hint of a +VE NAO emerging on the 12z suite of the ECM towards the end of Jan. Only a hint but not as many decent ridging runs as you'd expect given the averages and past 240hrs it all fades away fairly quickly on quite a few of the suite. Doesn't mean much right now, just something to keep a small eye on maybe!

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Agreed with Shaky, very poor 18z run and is much worse with a much flatter pattern. 12z chart first, 18z second. Back-edge snow still possible on the front moving SE but for the most part cold rain.

1022078908_Icon12.thumb.png.d8a39e904823e903ad0910339a94c2d2.png830330483_icon18.thumb.png.d3176bebf200774bbe35e9adb08512da.png

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Agreed with Shaky, very poor 18z run and is much worse with a much flatter pattern. 12z chart first, 18z second.

1022078908_Icon12.thumb.png.d8a39e904823e903ad0910339a94c2d2.png830330483_icon18.thumb.png.d3176bebf200774bbe35e9adb08512da.png

More energy coming S/E just delayed

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Not sure about ICON, see what you think, here T120 and 12z T126:

image.thumb.jpg.050760cb17ffb12cff0fef51498fe106.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6889581c1a22271a623f51eca08dfe79.jpg

Looks to me like the US low is held back west more on18z which would make it a better run?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yep very poor ICON tonight, and yes it is indeed worse than the 12z due to even more energy stretching out over the N.Atlantic. Hard to believe there is still that large disagreement at 96hrs! Wondering what the 18z GFS will show...always worry in these set-ups that it will backtrack.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The cpc chart knocker posted is noted ....

 100% confidence in the upstream pattern and the blend the 00z ecm with the 06z gfs/gefs .... we seem so uncertain this side of the pond yet they see things so differently their side ........

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Snow events for where on saturday

cannot see snow this Sat, maybe 26th? as extended forecast? as EC shows

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
5 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Christ, just seen the BBC extended forecast and they are going for the ECM solution big time with snow events Saturday and Tuesday and very com easterly winds afterwards. Totally ignoring the 18z GFS.

Andy

Well that’s stuffed it then! Whenever they get on board with something like this, it always seems to go wrong.

The ICON 18z should temper expectations. Probably off the mark, but may not be. Never a good sign when models don’t agree at T96.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

So it looks likely now even colder weather is on the way for next week as an bitter easterly flow sets in and all so snow showers getting very interesting now ..

4F149C97-CB21-4937-B8D6-79186215329A.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Nothing too much to note on GFS 18z at the moment by T66... The low coming off the US East Coast is a tad further west along with the rest of the pattern to the west of the UK. Fingers crossed for an improvement going forward now.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

there currently seems little prospect of decent snowfall on Tuesday. Ec has some on northern hills and Ukmo raw data is showing some light snow in Leeds but light rain in Manchester ..... with the trough drop still unclear, probably not worth analysis at the moment - could look different tomorrow. whereas if the easterly to follow verifies, that looks like ‘streamer time’ and we could also see disturbances headed sw from Scandinavia 

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