Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[markw2680]

31 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

My God what a run from the Ecm 12z which follows through on the potential shown on last evening's 12z!!..great time to be a coldie with some truly amazing output today..think it's the tip of the iceberg so to speak..plenty of very wintry weather in the pipeline i think!..seriously if this isn't worth a BOOM...nothing is!!!

 

 

Think the whole lot tonight deserves a pretty big boooommm.

can you actually imagine the state of the country if it does manage to come off

???

Edited January 17, 2019 by Blessed Weather
Some charts removed to shorten quote.

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, NL said:

I know where my money would be.

Europe is pulling ahead

Atmospheric scientists and meteorologists tend to agree about one thing: Europe is better than the US (and arguably the rest of the world) at predicting weather.

Weather models can improve in three ways. First, the equations that model pressure systems in the atmosphere can get more accurate. Second, models can better incorporate real-time weather data. And third, scientists can increase a model's resolution by taking weather measurements from more points around the globe. Europe is far ahead on this last one: it takes data from 904 million prediction points and has 10 times more computing power than the US does to crunch those numbers.

https://www.businessinsider.com/government-shutdown-puts-us-behind-in-weather-forecasting-race-2019-1?r=UK

Nice post!

I'm leaning towards the EC too, it handled the track of lows during the summer for the US far far better than the GFS did. I do think the Det is probably showing the extreme end of possibilities so we probably wont get anything quite that severe though I think blocking to the North is probably the way forward late next week. 

[Dunstable Snow]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean t168 chart, the crucial one, and it is great!

BOOM!!!

That's a cracking mean chart. With reference to whether GFS or ECM is more likely very often we see a solution that is somewhere in between. That will not be the case for the middle of next week. My head is telling me it will be ECM but we need UKMO to join the party before I relax on this one. Whatever the outcome on the easterly next week the potential is clearly there for a long cold and snowy spell for many. Interestingly Stav D on BBC London Tonight at around 6.55pm specifically referenced the likelihood of easterly winds and sleet and snow for London and the South East from the middle of next week. The beeb would not be making those comments at this stage unless they were pretty confident of the outcome in my experience.

Some great content in here again tonight by the way.

[northwestsnow]

MEAN is cold, cold and colder again..

Truly amazing outputs from ECM, waiting for a steve murr special soon..

[johnholmes]

6 hours ago, beerandkebab said:

not relevant to my post Feb......I was simply putting the record straight as explained to me (and others) by a met office source 

Best you pm me with some info away from this thread. I stand by what I said unless you have concrete proof.

[Wilxy]

00z 

12z 

Very nice to see!

[karlos1983]

-6 850’s is the Mean at D10 for the far south coast... I’ll take that as a very cold signal. 

Just need another solid EC46 tonight to keep the mood ticking. We aren’t there yet, but we are getting there.. breathe!

Its arguably an outlier right at D10, but arguably it’s not also... 

Edited January 17, 2019 by karlos1983

[kold weather]

12z ECM operational ENE flow is VERY unstable, plenty of showers coming in from what I can see. The ECM won't have the resolution to see just how heavy, but th signal is quite strong on there I have to say.

Anyway lets see what all the individual ECM members look like.

 

Edited January 17, 2019 by kold weather

[Glacier Point]

Touchdown.

GEFS mean AO values for 25th onwards around -2SD. CGEM +1 for the same time scale off 00z. Not sure what's going on there, but fair chance model is not picking up this downwell signal.

[phil nw.]

However we get there both ens suites show extensive cold across Europe incl.the UK.

These are the 850 hPa mean anomalies for the days 6-10 period

As  expected both day 10 means show the pronounced Scandi/Euro trough

Both showing a tendency to build some heights towards Iceland from the Atlantic ridge.A sharp upper trough modeled over eastern NA/Canada.Major part of the jet energy would be heading se as it approaches the UK.Of course the Operational runs will determine the details nearer the time,but a very cold looking outlook.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Touchdown.

GEFS mean AO values for 25th onwards around -2SD. CGEM +1 for the same time scale off 00z. Not sure what's going on there, but fair chance model is not picking up this downwell signal.

Yeah the GEM is doing a pretty poor job in picking up the set-up aloft, though it has to be said some ensembles are starting to pick up on the signal now at last.

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Incorrect.  We don't yet know this for a fact.  I appreciate you might think I'm being deliberately obtuse, but new or inexperienced members might think that this is certain to verify, which isn't the case.  What this shows is that, if this model is accurate 9 days out (which is unlikely) we would have a cold NErly flow.

Aye...We can 'boom' day-ten charts to our hearts' content (I know I do!); but we can only 'boom' the weather once it's happened.

Edited January 17, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Tom Jarvis]

Anyone seen the CMA it’s been cosistent over the last few days and the most recent one is an peach 

[Sweatyman]

sure looks cold on here!

[Winter-Chaser]

Just now, Sweatyman said:

sure looks cold on here!

What chart is that please? 

[matty40s]

8 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

.  What this shows is that, if this model is accurate 9 days out (which is unlikely) we would have a cold NErly flow.

This is the model thread and thats what this one shows so he is correct - the fact that there are umpteen other pertubations of what might happen 9 days out is irrelevant. The ECM is not necessarily correct tonight, the GFS might be more accurate(although unlikely) - but that doesnt stop 150 people looking on here and posting on here because they are hoping the ECM is nailed on.

[Sweatyman]

4 minutes ago, Winter-Chaser said:

What chart is that please? 

850 temps for next weekend

[kold weather]

12z GEM ensembles are moving colder on this suite of runs, still some big uncertainties but some great runs on there. some take 2 bites of the cherry but still get there in the end. GEM op run probably in the top 3 zonal runs by the way.

[MattStoke]

What time are the ECM 46 day model temperature anomalies available? Seem to remember last time people posting them a few hours before the sea level pressure anomalies were available.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, MattStoke said:

What time are the ECM 46 day model temperature anomalies available? Seem to remember last time people posting them a few hours before the sea level pressure anomalies were available.

Only available Mondays.

 

Edited January 17, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

sure looks cold on here!

 

6 minutes ago, Winter-Chaser said:

What chart is that please? 

They are 2 meter temperature anomaly charts not 850’s

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye...We can 'boom' day-ten charts to our hearts' content.

I can Boom day 7 or at least day 8 charts Ed..seriously though, if the Ecm 12z operational / mean are anywhere close..there's serious cold heading our way and nothing would make me happier!!..Boom

[Stuie]

As good old Frank Sinatra said, Ol` Blue eyes is back.....

 

[lorenzo]

EC Ens up to 6 on the clusters, but the key stand out is the blocking platform across them, atlantic is primed, AAM has spiked precisely when the downwelling advertised on the paint drip connects -  Genuinely cannot see a road back to the flatter solutions from here. I think 'That ECM' will get usurped in the not too distant future.

[Winter-Chaser]

11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 

They are 2 meter temperature anomaly charts not 850’s

Thank you