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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
14 minutes ago, ribster said:

You were saying?

I’ll be honest, I’m surprised but pleased. Now can it continue? Still think the charts will moderate as they approach the reliable range though. Unless this really is going to be historical?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I would love to know where the ECM goes past 240hrs, may well be one of those set-ups which at 500hpa doesn't look that great BUT because we have such deep cold aloft/surface by that point, any flow is going to have a real battle to get through and opens the door to more cutoff troughs.

Anyway ensembles are all over the place, but most definitely have that cold theme with most being some variation of cyclonic cold, with a few going for a...beast...I don't think that's most likely at the moment in the long term, I suspect unlike late Feb 18, this will be a slow burner type set-up with a few ups and rebounds.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, snowblizzard said:

The Euro trough looks a lot further South into Europe on that one?

Yeah that's the 00z run, I got excited and posted without actually checking which run it was from.. 

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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
27 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Slight similarities with the gfs 6z run after 168/192 other than somewhat of a flatter pattern to the north at 240... the cold quicker to get on this ecm 12z run though.

Why are focusing on what happens after 240, rather the wintry depiction up to this point? It seems overly negative.

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
Just now, Bricriu said:

Why are focusing on what happens after 240, rather the wintry depiction up to this point? It seems overly negative.

Maybe because its the model thread?

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Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
25 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

My God what a run from the Ecm 12z which follows through on the potential shown on last evening's 12z!!..great time to be a coldie with some truly amazing output today..think it's the tip of the iceberg so to speak..plenty of very wintry weather in the pipeline i think!:cold-emoji:❄️:shok:..seriously if this isn't worth a BOOM...nothing is!!!:bomb:

216_thick.png

 

240_thick.png

 

Get those greens away from Ireland

Edited by Blessed Weather
Some charts removed to shorten quote.
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Okay.. for real this time. 

EPS remains firm, slight differences but in general it supports the Det out to 156hrs at least which is how far it's gotten

BOOM.thumb.png.0b8baf7f27d1fc81b01986818cff41ba.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
13 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Why are focusing on what happens after 240, rather the wintry depiction up to this point? It seems overly negative.

No I'm not, read my post, after 240!?! - I'm commenting on the similarities between the earlier gfs 6z run (which was a wintry nirvana) at a certain part of that run up to 240 with this evening's ecm run which has a slightly less amplified pattern at a higher latitude at that time.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

My God what a run from the Ecm 12z which follows through on the potential shown on last evening's 12z!!..great time to be a coldie with some truly amazing output today..think it's the tip of the iceberg so to speak..plenty of very wintry weather in the pipeline i think!:cold-emoji:❄️:shok:..seriously if this isn't worth a BOOM...nothing is!!!:bomb:

216_mslp850uk.png

 

240_mslp850uk.png

 

Gee whizz, Frosty...That's some stonkeroonie of an ECM!:cold::santa-emoji::yahoo:

Edited by Blessed Weather
Some charts snipped to shorten quote
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Hull snow said:

Do we think ecm is likely to be correct or gfs?

Well that's the 1 million dollar question, isn't it.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, Hull snow said:

Do we think ecm is likely to be correct or gfs?

ECM!!!:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, Hull snow said:

Do we think ecm is likely to be correct or gfs?

I mean the ECM leads to cold.

The GFS leads to cold...just maybe a little delayed and perhaps a little more marginal...BUT higher potential for a jackpot snowfall from what I've seen looking at the ensembles of the GFS.

As long as its not the GEM solution, we will be ok!!

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