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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Just now, nick sussex said:

Atlantic bog off !

Forget it , it’s desperately trying to move in and throws an ugly PV at us but still not managing it because of low pressure over southern Europe.

Hopefully, it links arms with that S Europe low and we get a massive undercut. Happened in 1947 a few times! 

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Great ECM but until UKMO ON BOARD refuse to get too carried away.Been here too many times for it to go TU  at last minute.Just hope that this time NEXT WEEK we will be toasting that the ECM was on the money.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

The roller-coaster is in over-drive now after that ECM.

 

Loving the output for midweek with that fast transition from a cold westerly to an even colder easterly.

 

ECM1-144.thumb.GIF.31c2b38ee229896c89d179a17abf4120.GIFECM1-168.thumb.GIF.d0b8b9cc65d00a14293f637e046aebed.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Surely nobody really believes that this mornings runs would verify? It’s like expecting your lottery numbers to come up twice!

in the last 24 hours we have seen them swing from one extreme to another. They will nearly always settle on a middle ground. No way will ECM repeat its 00z run. Set your bar at a reasonable level! I’m pretty sure it will get cold but very cold is still in doubt.

You were saying?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Panic over for now, the 12z EC has clean separation of the Euro trough from upper westerlies near Greenland after early-mid week disruption and BOOM!

ECMWF high res gets 10/10, GFS op 6/10, UKMO 4/10 from me.

 

Great run.

I'm just looking at the GFS ensembles for Tuesday, definitely an upgrade there with more models having a more pure NW shot.

So we may have a trade off between a 48-72hrs easterly shot, or a countrywide snow event from the front as it comes south. Both sound decent to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Hopefully, it links arms with that S Europe low and we get a massive undercut. Happened in 1947 a few times! 

You look great for your age! 

Seriously though the ECM is great . We need that bit of luck between day 5 and 7 though and certainly need the UKMO to stop its grinch routine .

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

Copy and pasted 

NWS suggest GFS/GEFS are outliers with regards to the USA storm track and placed more weight in the EC 00z so the fact the EC 12z remains favourable for cold could suggest it's along the right track, however nothing guaranteed of course. Awaiting the EPS with interest

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I know I'm going to get blasted for posting this but it shows no snow accumulation away from Wales on Tuesday. It is possible that it will be a rain event on Tuesday? Just asking the question?

image.png

Was just about to post the same...must be a DP or DAM issue? Uppers and ground temps look ok. Anyone with access to that data able to share?

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
30 minutes ago, Steve C said:

Jesus H! Not what I was saying at all!  A straw man argument if ever there was one! This is a model discussion thread...

It was a tongue in cheek response!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Was just about to post the same...must be a DP or DAM issue? Uppers and ground temps look ok. Anyone with access to that data able to share?

Dew points look like they are a bit too high, but in interesting contrast, the GFS ensembles have really moved towards at least a decent back end snow event from this front. So interesting to see how the models disagree on this!

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Panic over for now, the 12z EC has clean separation of the Euro trough from upper westerlies near Greenland after early-mid week disruption and BOOM!

ECMWF high res gets 10/10, GFS op 6/10, UKMO 4/10 from me.

 

Nick F a boom-booming, wow! I've clearly got some reading up to do, but we coldies seem happy enough. Should you get the time, I'd love a one-off blog post for us all to digest? If you're on the boom uptake, must be good!

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
8 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I know I'm going to get blasted for posting this but it shows no snow accumulation away from Wales on Tuesday. It is possible that it will be a rain event on Tuesday? Just asking the question?

image.png

Peak District ,Cumbrian fells & Northen Pennines look ok ??

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Just a quick one-do you think ECM Is a cold outlier?

genuine question as it seems too good to be true

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Hull snow said:

Hi all not posted for a long time which model do we think is correct JMA very consistent with its outlook 

??  _  Yesterday it was showing a Jan 1987 style Easterly, now its showing cool zonality.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
18 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

Me a ring the slight north easterly component and remembering unless the flow comes directly from the east or south east I get sod all like last year lol.

Pressure is much lower on these charts though,

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Posted
  • Location: Bromley
  • Location: Bromley
1 minute ago, Hotspur61 said:

Just a quick one-do you think ECM Is a cold outlier?

genuine question as it seems too good to be true

Judging by recent trends I’m going to guess it’s definitely on the cold side but I wouldn’t be surprised if it did have a bit of support. Tell me if I’m wrong people

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Hotspur61 said:

Just a quick one-do you think ECM Is a cold outlier?

genuine question as it seems too good to be true

You would think it would have some support with that frigid air building to the East, so probably not a complete outlier synoptically, uppers wise though it will be towards the cold end of the spread at the very minimum.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
14 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I know I'm going to get blasted for posting this but it shows no snow accumulation away from Wales on Tuesday. It is possible that it will be a rain event on Tuesday? Just asking the question?

image.png

No it’s simply not showing anything because it’s too far in advance for it to show. Them charts are only any good within 24hrs and even then I think they are pretty dump tbh

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Uptick in the models today"ukmo"bit flat but potential is there for a nhp change over the next ten days.whether it brings the UK wintry conditions is unsure ATM but the cold cyclonic signal is there.

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